midseason opinion

[coach'd]

Not much discussion going on at this point on the site. Just going to relay some observations/opinions at least from my perspective in eastern portion of the state. Been to quite a few games, more small school than large because I can see both boys and girls varsity games in the same night.

5A Interesting now with Ollinger playing for Linn Mar on how much better they will be doing after she gets more experience with the team. Will be interesting on the 16th when they play IC West.

4A Western Dubuque seems to be the team in this area, they dismantled #12 Solon 42-14 at the rivalry Saturday games at the 5 season center. I saw them at the beginning of the year but it looks like they are playing much better now.

3A At the beginning of the season I would have thought the two teams in the area to compete would have been Solon or CPU, but not sure who now.

2A North Linn. Enough said. Nicole Miller is one of the better players I have seen over the past couple years.

1A Right now I will go with Springville, Hard to judge in this area because most of the 1A teams define mediocrity.

I will say that the two best players I have seen so far have been Miller for North Linn, and Hembera for CVC. I saw Hembera score 24 even though being double and tripled teamed and fouling out at the beginning of the fourth quarter. CVC is much improved this year, and she is the main player like last year, yet she still averages 33 points and 14 rebounds a game.

Would be interested in how things are going in other areas of the state.

 

[Tom Paris]

I will say the MAC will have some of the best teams, other than Assumption, to come out of this side of the state in the next few years. Davenport North has 3 D-1 caliber players, 2 sophs and 1 freshman. They are 10-0 right now and will have everybody back next year. North Scott is not somebody you want to run into in the playoffs either. They lost to Harlan on a buzzer beater at state and were able to beat them at Wartburg. Both teams are 4A. Pleasant Valley is a very young and improving team in 5A, and they will be a force the next 4-5 years for sure. There is a ton of young talent in the conference right now. Chrislyn Carr is a 5'3 freshman PG for Davenport West and is capable of taking over a game all by herself. Definitely going to be a D-1 player.

 

[RamBling]

On the Western front,

In 4A - wouldn't want to see Indianola, Heelan or Ballard come tourney time (and of course Harlan) - Berg is the real deal for Indianola (and keeps getting better), Heelan keeps coming at you - fast breaks, inside and out, and Ballard continues to impress, (and Harlan of course, is well, Harlan).

In 5A - the CIML teams keep taking turns beating each other up, and come tournament time, will be battle tested and tough to beat - Valley loves the uptempo & Vanderweide & Fuller(s) can go off at any time, Waukee has a great inside/outside balance (Jacobsen & cast), Dowling's schedule has been quiet (e.g. softer) lately, but will ramp up after pairings are announced - if they can find a consistent post to allow Faber to roam free - they will be extremely dangerous come tournaments. SEP is inconsistent, but (like last year) continues to get better as the season progresses. Centennial and Johnston are dealing with the loss of a big girl (Winters - left, Knuth - concussion), but both are finding other ways to compete and win and will be surprises later in the year. Urbandale is dangerous and a team I would not like to have as the 3rd/4th seed in my bracket. The CIML will be well represented at State again this year (going to predict 5 teams again) - but brackets/seeding will have a huge impact on which 5.

 

[coach'd]

Shelby Hembera is out for the year, Article on Metro Sports Report. Torn tendons and may need surgery. Its too bad she is not able to finish out, one of the better players I saw this year, both her and Miller from North Linn were having great senior years.

http://www.metrosportsreport.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=25550:cedar-valley-loses-hembera-for-season&catid=219:cvc-girls-basketball&Itemid=394

 

[cyard31]

Does anyone know if Miller from North Linn has made a college commitment? or where she is looking?

 

[OHS4life]

Nicole will play at Drake.

Also, looking at the 1A brackets alone the IGHSAU did a pretty good job at splitting up a couple teams. I think Springville is in the state tournament if they get past Midland and Marquette Catholic. Lynnville Sully has the top seed but an extremely weak schedule compared to those three teams will come back to bite them.

As for 2A, a Clayton Ridge and North Linn rematch would be interesting.

 

[cyard31]

It seems that 3A Monticello is playing some good ball at this time. Big win over 2A #8 Cascade 45-27

 

[Tom Paris]

Originally posted by RamBling:
On the Western front,

In 4A - wouldn't want to see Indianola, Heelan or Ballard come tourney time (and of course Harlan) - Berg is the real deal for Indianola (and keeps getting better), Heelan keeps coming at you - fast breaks, inside and out, and Ballard continues to impress, (and Harlan of course, is well, Harlan).

In 5A - the CIML teams keep taking turns beating each other up, and come tournament time, will be battle tested and tough to beat - Valley loves the uptempo & Vanderweide & Fuller(s) can go off at any time, Waukee has a great inside/outside balance (Jacobsen & cast), Dowling's schedule has been quiet (e.g. softer) lately, but will ramp up after pairings are announced - if they can find a consistent post to allow Faber to roam free - they will be extremely dangerous come tournaments. SEP is inconsistent, but (like last year) continues to get better as the season progresses. Centennial and Johnston are dealing with the loss of a big girl (Winters - left, Knuth - concussion), but both are finding other ways to compete and win and will be surprises later in the year. Urbandale is dangerous and a team I would not like to have as the 3rd/4th seed in my bracket. The CIML will be well represented at State again this year (going to predict 5 teams again) - but brackets/seeding will have a huge impact on which 5.

The girl's union will see to it Des Moines gets a large number of teams to state.

 

[coach'd]

Originally posted by cyard31:
It seems that 3A Monticello is playing some good ball at this time. Big win over 2A #8 Cascade 45-27

That is a reversal of the beginning of the month when they lost 37 to 20. The first time they shot I believe less than 15% from the field.




This post was edited on 1/28 2:29 PM by coach'd

 

[SEPRamFan]

Personally, I think the girl's union has done an excellent job in recent years of getting the "best" 8 teams to state. Given that 6 of the top 8 ranked teams are in the Des Moines area, efforts should be made to place many of those teams in separate regions. I'd say the same thing if it were MVC or MAC teams in this same position. The State Tournament shouldn't focus primarily on geographical diversity. Get the best teams there and let them play it out. Makes for better games. Just look at last year's 3A title game... Unity Christian and MOC-Floyd Valley played for the state title. Both are from the same small town with the schools about a mile apart. Well done girl's union... well done. The boy's union should pay attention.

 

[Magic 10]

Great Post SEPRam Fan. The State Tournament is a show case of the state's best teams. The Girl's Union does a FANTASTIC job of getting the best to the state tournament. If it is an All Des Moines area State Tournament it looks like some teams in those regions need to knock the Des Moines area teams off to stake their claim at earning a trip to the state tournament. I feel the Girl's Union does a great job with their research on teams and trying to mix it up from year to year so that the potential for different teams to meet in the Regional Finals is another often overlooked concept. There are not too many cases of the same teams meeting in the regional final now that they have changed their format. Boys State Tournament would be even better if they adopted a similar format.

 

[Hawkeye2010]

I agree, the IGHSAU always does a good job with pairings. I think the IAHSAA just gets lazy when it comes to that. Districts are a bunch of teams playing each other for the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th times. The substate in some cases end up being the same way. For the 1A girls pairings, Turkey Valley is in the same region as Newell Fonda. Assuming a big reason for that was to avoid a TV vs. Colo/Janesville/Kee regional matchup. This would never happen for the boys.

 

[Tom Paris]

Originally posted by SEPRamFan:
Personally, I think the girl's union has done an excellent job in recent years of getting the "best" 8 teams to state. Given that 6 of the top 8 ranked teams are in the Des Moines area, efforts should be made to place many of those teams in separate regions. I'd say the same thing if it were MVC or MAC teams in this same position. The State Tournament shouldn't focus primarily on geographical diversity. Get the best teams there and let them play it out. Makes for better games. Just look at last year's 3A title game... Unity Christian and MOC-Floyd Valley played for the state title. Both are from the same small town with the schools about a mile apart. Well done girl's union... well done. The boy's union should pay attention.

Let's see what they do with the 4A pairings for the MAC 4A teams. It will be interesting to see if they make North Scott and Davenport North play each other to come out of one region, or if they see that they are 2 of the better 4a teams in the state and send them different directions. Assumption is playing well too. They could possibly put all 3 in the same region which would be a crime, imo.

 

[RamBling]

4A is DEEP this year Tom - it will really be a challenge to bracket that group - somebody (or multiple somebodies) are not going to be happy with how things shake out. There are a number of multiple loss teams that will go deep and surprise (e.g. Xavier, Assumption, Indianola, DCG) and some unbeatens/once-beatens who will be exposed and surprised.

If you break this down - 8 regions = 8 #1 seeds - my best guess would be (based on IGHSAU and BC Moore rankings):
- Harlan
- Ballard
- Western Dubuque
- Davenport North
- Carlisle
- SC Heelan
- Waverly Shell Rock
- Perry

The rub will be, where do you put the next tier? (Which I would include the following in no particular order)
- Pella
- North Scott
- Xavier
- Indianola
- Dallas Center Grimes
- Lewis Central
- Assumption
- Mt. Pleasant
- Marion

Nobody wants to go west to face Harlan, but I am guessing that they will have no choice but to send Lewis Central either to Harlan or more likely to SC Heelan - that means that Indianola, DCG or Pella will have to go to Harlan. The others will probably go to Ballard, Carlisle and Perry.

They could send North Scott north to WD or west to Carlisle or way north to Waverly. My guess is that if they want to "mix things up" they may send North Scott to Western Dubuque's region and put Xavier in with Davenport North. Although, either Mt. Pleasant/Assumption may be a better candidate for the WD region.

It will be interesting to see where Davenport North falls in the final "seeding/pecking order" - if they are considered a "low #1" - and North Scott ends up as a "high #2" - they will unfortunately fall into the same region. Since Assumption/Mt. Pleasant would be considered a lower #2 (than North Scott), they may have to go to either WD or Carlisle (which are currently considered higher #1's than Davenport North)

To me the Waverly region will be the most interesting - there are not a lot of other contenders in the NE, so someone may have to "travel" - (although the final could be located at a mutually beneficial location like CR)

It will be interesting how the dust settles, like I said, there will definitely be some unhappy campers and a lot of people pointing at "greener grass" in other regions.

 

[SEPRamFan]

Well put RamBling. And the timing of losses (right before regionals are determined) was unfortunate for Davenport North and North Scott. Both lost twice in the last week. That likely slides them down in the rankings and hurts their seeding in a regional. Only 1 game left to improve your image (or for other teams to diminish theirs).

 

[Tom Paris]

Originally posted by SEPRamFan:
Well put RamBling. And the timing of losses (right before regionals are determined) was unfortunate for Davenport North and North Scott. Both lost twice in the last week. That likely slides them down in the rankings and hurts their seeding in a regional. Only 1 game left to improve your image (or for other teams to diminish theirs).

Neither North loss was a bad loss. Pleasant Valley is an up and comer. Unfortunately and doubtfully, nobody from the Union was at the North loss to Wash. 61 fouls called. North was up big and then one of their big 3 got hurt after scoring 17 points in the first quarter and a half. Another one was in foul trouble all game and the 3rd had to score 54 just to keep them in it. Lost in OT to a buzzer beater.

I highly doubt there are 7 better teams in 4A than either North or North Scott. I hope they are split up.

Thanks to the other poster for the rundown!