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"Impressive" or Statistically Probable?

EHS1505

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Sep 1, 2010
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Has there ever been any other 4A state tournament where just the MVC and CIML teams have made it? That alone is impressive.— Iowa Preps (@iowapreps) July">https://twitter.com/iowapreps/statuses/492137172049592320">July 24, 2014[/URL][/QUOTE]


I don't know who is MAC and who is MVC, so I'll stick to the west and CIML.

This year the CIML started with a guaranteed 25% of the state tournament field. They currently represent 63% of the state tournament field.

Seems "impressive" like Luke's tweet suggests, but let's examine the 3 substates where the CIML wasn't guaranteed to send a representative.

Substate 1:
The most balanced of the 3. Fort Dodge and Ames typically go with this substate when the state decides Sioux City or Council Bluffs doesn't have enough talent to stick to the I-29/Basketball substate. No shock there. Boone and Urbandale have typically been two of the teams they've included in the past and typically they are .500ish teams. This year they send 27-10 Dowling. CIML goes 3-0 in the first round, but 4 runs represents the entire differential and 2 of the games go to extra innings. Basically a coin-flip substate and the CIML pulled it out. Boys in Boone breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Substate 2:
CIML Mason City was the 4 seed with an 8-20 record at the time of seeding. They finished 8-30. SC West was the 6 seed in Substate 1 with a 13-18 record at the time of seeding. Added together the two Waterloo schools in this substate didn't reach 13 wins. So realistically it was 3 CIML schools vs Cedar Falls. Is it that impressive that a CIML school came out of a substate where they had 3 of the 4 (or 2 of the 3) competitive teams?

Substate 8:
Looks like the CIML is outnumbered in this one, but Ankeny was 15-13 at the time of seeding and grabbed the #2 seed. Lewis Central's record looked really pretty on paper, but the Hawkeye 10 was WAY down this year and it's a small school conference anyway. Norwalk is in the same boat, playing in a smaller conference. Waukee likely would have come out of any substate they played in, so Vegas odds makers probably would have put Waukee at a -800 in this substate. I don't find it impressive that a giant favorite won. Even in a game where a team can strike out 17 times and win 3-2, a la TJ's win over Ankeny, outside of a miracle Waukee was going to win this substate and it was set-up to be that way.

The MVC's is more "impressive" from a numbers standpoint, holding only a 13 to 9 advantage over the MAC. The CIML and MVC do make-up 67% of the 4A field though...
 
MVC (4A teams): Iowa City West, Iowa City High, Dubquue Hempstead, Dubuque Senior, Waterloo East, Waterloo West, Cedar Falls, Linn-Mar, Cedar Rapids Kennedy, Cedar Rapids Washington, Cedar Rapids Prairie, Cedar Rapids Jefferson [Cedar Rapids Xavier, Dubuque Wahlert in 3A]

MAC (4A teams): Burlington, Muscatine, Clinton, Bettendorf, Davenport North, Davenport West, Davenport Central, North Scott, Pleasant Valley [Davenport Assumption in 3A]

So, this side of the state had 2 MVC (Kennedy, Linn-Mar) and 4 MAC (Pleasant Valley, Davenport West, Muscatine, Bettendorf) in S4; 5 MVC (IC West, City, CR Jefferson, CR Prairie, CR Washington) and 1 MAC (Burlington) in S5; 2 MVC (Dubuque Hempstead and Senior) and 4 MAC (Davenport North and Central, Clinton, North Scott) in S3. Then, 3 MVC (both Waterloo's and Cedar Falls) in S2 with CIML teams.
 
Your argument is somewhat understandable and the MAC & MVC have very good teams. (I don't think anyone would argue that). What is impressive tho is the CIML winning 17 of the last 19 state titles.
 
I would count the MVC keeping the MAC completely out of the tournament, based on your information provided TRoe, as impressive.

Regardless of how S2 could have played out, we'd still have the same 2 conferences. That makes it 3 of 8 guaranteed to have this outcome.

S5 would have been tough to not have a MVC champ too, but I do think the MVC's sweeping in the east is more impressive than the CIMLs sweeping in the west regardless.
 
I think it's a unique and interesting occurance, but when you consider that 7 out of 10 4A students attend a school in either the CIML or MVC where 31/48 4A teams compete, I'm not sure if it's all that surprising when something like this occurs.

Conference | Total 4A Enrollment | Percent of Total | Ave. enrollment per 4A conference school | # 4A Schools



CIML 22150 42.5% 1166 19
MVC 14097 27.0% 1175 12
MAC 9075 17.4% 1008 9
MZVL 5582 10.7% 930 6
Misc 1227 2.4% 614 2
Total 52131 100.0% 48
 
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