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Games to watch 9/26

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usfhawk

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Jul 13, 2006
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1.) South Central Calhoun @ St. Edmund

- This should be a good one. Winner will have a leg up in the D7 playoff race.

2.) Emmetsburg @ St. Ansgar

- Another big time district matchup. Emmetsburg should be fired up after a tough loss to West Lyon. Is St. Ansgar the real deal??

3.) South Winn @ Sumner Fredricksburg

- Another tough match up for South Winn. I look for them to make a statement in this game. They are just too talented for SF.

4.) Bellevue @ West Branch

- According to records this should be a good matchup but the upper hand has to go West Branch. West Branch will take the lead in D5 after this one.
 
I, too think the St. Edmond/SCC game should be a dandy- both teams like to power it....two very well coached teams and two teams with a lot of wins over the last 10 years.
 
Originally posted by 80wolves:
5. AHSTW @ IKM-Manning
- Winner gets a leg up in the District race.
Click to expand...
a district championship is a district championship.

but does that district even matter come mid-November?

time will tell
 
I don't think Emmetsburg has the muscle to take down St. Ansgar, but it should be a lot closer than any of the games St. Ansgar has played so far.
 
Emmetsburg has some big guys, but got dominated up front by West Lyon. This is a traditional Emmetsburg team. Big power running team with big backs. They will run alot of heavy sets and tons of bellys and belly keepers. For them to be successful their QB will need to be better than he was last week.

If they come to play it will be a close one.
 
St. Edmond
St. Ansgar by 2 TDs
Sout Winn, I think if they are able to contain Tehel they will win big.
West Branch, but I think Bellevue will keep it closer than what people think.
 
St. Edmund will be to much for Calhoun 2 Td win. 30-16
St. Ansgar is the real deal. And they WILL prove it this week with a 3 TD win over a good Emmetsburg team. 35-14
South Winn might have trouble with Kohlmeyer and Schmitt in the backfield for Sumner. And rumor has it Rommes could be sitting out this week due to an injury. This game will be a lot closer then you guys think. South Win by 6. 30-24
West Branch will win D5 this year after a win this week. 26-14
 
Originally posted by tigerpride_32:

Sout Winn, I think if they are able to contain Tehel they will win big.
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I don't want to come off like I'm chipping on him, nor on you. I'm sure he does a nice job of running the offense. But he is not even averaging 100 yards of total offense per game.
 
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
 
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
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I tend to agree, although in reality the above named teams will likely be eventually eliminated in the playoffs by teams that simply have more athletic ability.
 
St. Ansgar will likely get knocked out by South Winneshiek in the Quarterfinals. I can see St. Edmond going to the championship and losing to Regina like last year. Madrid will be out in either round 1 or 2 I'd think.
 
I think you will see South Winn vs. West Branch in the quarters. The winner playing Regina in the semis.
 
The way the playoff bracket is structured, D3 and D4 play each other for the first 3 rounds, and the overall winner(determined in the quarters) would play the winner of D5 and D6 in the semis. The only way West Branch and South Winneshiek will meet in the playoffs would be in the semis of West Branch manages to edge out Regina in the quarters. I think the quarterfinal match ups will likely be St. Ansgar against South Winneshiek and West Branch against Regina, with South Winn and Regina moving to the semis.
 
I could see FDSE coming up from the weaker side of the bracket again to meet Regina in the finals just like last year. South Winn (I would say 2nd best team) will probably see Regina in the semis and lose (similar to what happened to NF last year).
 
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
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big shocker.

Pinehawk projected every game on the list except for the WB game. The hits keep coming :)
 
Originally posted by Lightning9899:
The way the playoff bracket is structured, D3 and D4 play each other for the first 3 rounds, and the overall winner(determined in the quarters) would play the winner of D5 and D6 in the semis. The only way West Branch and South Winneshiek will meet in the playoffs would be in the semis of West Branch manages to edge out Regina in the quarters. I think the quarterfinal match ups will likely be St. Ansgar against South Winneshiek and West Branch against Regina, with South Winn and Regina moving to the semis.
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incorrect.

there is no more cross district pairing.

geography, district seed, and record are the deciding factors now.

Almost like the good ol days.
You really have no idea who you are going to play.
But if I were a betting man, I would definitely say that WB and ICR will play in the quarters if they are both there.
 
Originally posted by Lightning9899:
The way the playoff bracket is structured, D3 and D4 play each other for the first 3 rounds, and the overall winner(determined in the quarters) would play the winner of D5 and D6 in the semis. The only way West Branch and South Winneshiek will meet in the playoffs would be in the semis of West Branch manages to edge out Regina in the quarters. I think the quarterfinal match ups will likely be St. Ansgar against South Winneshiek and West Branch against Regina, with South Winn and Regina moving to the semis.
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The playoff bracket for this year will not be the same as in the past. There aren't any guaranteed matchups by districts. It will be based on distance between schools rather than sister districts 1v4 and 2v3. So you could potentially have all 4 of one district matchup with each other 1 v 4 and 2 v 3.
 
Originally posted by BlameIt:
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
Click to expand...
big shocker.

Pinehawk projected every game on the list except for the WB game. The hits keep coming :)
Click to expand...
I wasn't even looking at the games. I just looked at the schools with the least pass attempts in Class 1A.
But, I think WB gets the win in a fairly close game over Bellevue. The most interesting part might be to see if Lenoch can avoid injury with Butch asking him to run the ball 40 times a game though. ;-)
 
Originally posted by Pinehawk:

The most interesting part might be to see if Lenoch can avoid injury with Butch asking him to run the ball 40 times a game though. ;-)
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.fact.

i am guessing we will not see that happen again anytime soon :)
 
Yeah I'm guessing what the State will do is list all the seeds together in their own group 1s, 2s, etc, and then compare each team for potential matchups with geography being a heavy factor.

For example, in years past (and we're just going off of current standings) St. Edmond, as a 1 seed, would host Woodward-Granger, as a 4 seed.

This year, as more of a hypothetical, if MNW rebounded to claim the 4-seed, given the distance between the two, it would probably be that SE would host MNW in the 1v4 game (even though they're from the same district) while Panorama hosts W-G.

I could even see the possibility where teams from say D3 are paired with teams from D7 or even D1 with D8. It just depends on who ends up in what seed.

My guess is though you'll still end up seeing some games where teams leap-frog other closer teams to take on opponents somewhat farther away. Why? I don't know, but it just seems like something the Association would do.
 
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
Click to expand...
Who says Regina has a good enough team this year to stop these run games? Maybe they don't.
 
Originally posted by GoHawks2009:
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
And yet, when you look at yards per play....

Madrid - 192 plays, 1654 yards for 8.6 yards per play
OA-BCIG - 191 plays, 1573 yards for 8.2 yards per play
St. Ansgar - 207 plays, 1604 yards for 7.7 yards per play
Regina - 223 plays, 1724 yards for 7.7 yards per play

Two of the top 4 are telling you exactly what they are going to do (RUN THE BALL), yet are still averaging 7.7 and 8.6 yards per play. Madrid and St. Ansgar are 3rd and 6th respectively in total offensive yards for 1A, and both have scored 21 TDs in 4 games (top 5 in 1A). As long as you score points, why does it matter how you do it?

Obviously a team with better athletes, or one that executes better will probably win, but why does nobody say that a passing team will struggle in playoffs when they find a team that can stop the pass? Of course, if a team can stop you from running your offense the way you want, it's going to be difficult to win, whether that is passing or running. But I have yet to see a team "TAKE AWAY" the running game of any of those three running teams listed above. You might slow them down for awhile, but eventually, the holes open up.
 
Originally posted by Bringin the Heat:

Originally posted by GoHawks2009:
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
St. Ansgar with 18 pass attempts in 4 games...
Madrid with just 6 attempts and 2 completions in 4 games...
St. Ed's with just 12 attempts in 4 games...

I think it's going to be very tough for such one dimensional teams to have much success in the playoffs against defenses that can take away the running game. We saw it last year for sure.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
And yet, when you look at yards per play....

Madrid - 192 plays, 1654 yards for 8.6 yards per play
OA-BCIG - 191 plays, 1573 yards for 8.2 yards per play
St. Ansgar - 207 plays, 1604 yards for 7.7 yards per play
Regina - 223 plays, 1724 yards for 7.7 yards per play

Two of the top 4 are telling you exactly what they are going to do (RUN THE BALL), yet are still averaging 7.7 and 8.6 yards per play. Madrid and St. Ansgar are 3rd and 6th respectively in total offensive yards for 1A, and both have scored 21 TDs in 4 games (top 5 in 1A). As long as you score points, why does it matter how you do it?

Obviously a team with better athletes, or one that executes better will probably win, but why does nobody say that a passing team will struggle in playoffs when they find a team that can stop the pass? Of course, if a team can stop you from running your offense the way you want, it's going to be difficult to win, whether that is passing or running. But I have yet to see a team "TAKE AWAY" the running game of any of those three running teams listed above. You might slow them down for awhile, but eventually, the holes open up.
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One-dimensional teams don't tend to win championships anymore. Regina and St. Albert have both utilized a steady dose of effective passing to go with their ground games, plus played good defense. Teams that only run or only pass are much easier to beat.

Also, Regina's stats are pretty skewed in your ranking. They've played a ranked 2A team and a ranked 3A team this year. I would expect their stats to be a little less impressive than if they were facing 1A competition every week, which is what they'll see in the playoffs.
 
St. Ansgar won it all in 2011, and their run game that year was good enough to top excellent run defense teams like A-P and St. Albert. One-dimensional teams still can win it, if their chosen mode of offense is good enough. Granted, it'll take more than just one good mode of offense to take down Regina, especially from a 1A team.
 
Yeah excluding Regina, Pine, what are some other 1A defenses that could shut down the best one-dimensional offenses in 1A?
 
Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:
Yeah excluding Regina, Pine, what are some other 1A defenses that could shut down the best one-dimensional offenses in 1A?
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Does it matter? Are they just playing for second place?

But anyway, in my opinion, I think virtually ignoring an entire phase of the game of football is bad for the sport. I'd feel the same way about a basketball team that only shot three pointers.
 
Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:
Yeah excluding Regina, Pine, what are some other 1A defenses that could shut down the best one-dimensional offenses in 1A?
Click to expand...
West Lyon would be able to do that and I'm sure there are 3 or 4 more.
 
Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:
Yeah excluding Regina, Pine, what are some other 1A defenses that could shut down the best one-dimensional offenses in 1A?
Click to expand...
Off the top of my head, I'd say South Winn and St. Ed both could for sure. Maybe West Branch and Saint Ansgar, too.
 
Originally posted by Pinehawk:


Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:
Yeah excluding Regina, Pine, what are some other 1A defenses that could shut down the best one-dimensional offenses in 1A?
Click to expand...
Does it matter? Are they just playing for second place? I don't know, Pine, you tell me? You can answer that question honestly, too, it's okay.

But anyway, in my opinion, I think virtually ignoring an entire phase of the game of football is bad for the sport. I'd feel the same way about a basketball team that only shot three pointers. I don't know about that being bad for the sport and when you say ignoring, you've gotta understand what level you're talking about here. You're also kind of assuming what and why teams do things.

There's a difference between "virtually ignoring" and only doing something when you need to. If Iowa could win the Big Ten championship simply by running the football most plays and occasionally hitting a couple play action passes, would that be bad for the sport? Would you complain? If Iowa City Regina would've won the last 4 state titles just by running the ball, would you complain? Would you honestly come on here and say what your team is doing is bad for the sport?

(Then again, I wonder, do you think Regina would've won 4 titles in a row if they didn't pass as much as they do?....)

These teams are one-dimensional because they have a lot of success at what they do. Is there any reason to risk a turnover passing the ball if you can score it just as easy by running it? Not to mention when it gets to be 35-0 or greater, what's the point of needing to pass much, if at all? Is that bad for the sport? And to your basketball comparison, I'd liken it more to a team being averse to shooting 3s. You're going to struggle a lot more if you can't or won't shoot threes, particularly in high school and even in college, especially against good zone defenses that clog the lane. It's one of Iowa's biggest issues, not being capable of shooting threes even when open. Though I think they actively try to shoot them, so I guess I should rephrase that to not being capable of "making" threes......even when they're open.
chairshot.r191677.gif


Back to football, you also have to account for the talent level and what teams have and don't have. Is it worth it to try and teach a team to pass? Those are real questions and it's easy for someone in your position to think that's ridiculous (not to say you do...), but try going to some of those smaller schools (even at the 1A level) and see how much tougher it is than in Iowa City. I'm sure Regina has beaten up on some small 1A teams that couldn't pass to save their lives, whether they actively try or not. Is that bad for the sport?

I'd say there are a lot more teams that can pass but choose not to, than you're giving them credit for. Now that may mean that it's still easier for the best defenses to stop them (or so it would seem), but that's why they play.

Btw, somewhat off-topic, but I'm just curious, how would schools like Navy (moreso) and Army or even Georgia Tech do if they changed up their offenses from the option so they could pass more, or I guess as you're thinking, "try to develop better passing games"? And I guess since we're on this point and we can play devil's advocate here, who would be some teams you think Regina would fear more if they had better passing games to go with their currently one-dimensional offense (i.e. the run)?
Click to expand...
 
I'm not looking to get into a debate about it. But, I'm not buying that these teams don't have the talent to be a well rounded team. In many cases I suspect the coaches just have their system and they are afraid (or don't really know how) to try anything new. But, I think they are likely limiting their team's potential.
The higher up you look in football, through class 2A, 3A, 4A, college, professional...the more diversified you see the offenses get. That's because throwing it just four times a game is only going to work at the lowest levels of football. It's not how the game is really meant to be played at a high level.
 
Different ways to be successful....you are entitled to your opinion. Facts are that some of the most successful programs in the state have been, are, and will continue to be run oriented. Hard to argue with history. Outside of Harlan, Emmetsburg has the highest winning percentage in the state at 85% since 1972. Also, 9 state titles and 39 playoff appearances. This is all in the IHSAA Stat Book.

The game is played at a high level by teams that run first, teams that pass first, and teams that do both. Saying otherwise flies in the face of history and facts. In the end....it isn't so much what you are doing....it is how well you are doing it.
 
Originally posted by Zeek86:
Different ways to be successful....you are entitled to your opinion. Facts are that some of the most successful programs in the state have been, are, and will continue to be run oriented. Hard to argue with history. Outside of Harlan, Emmetsburg has the highest winning percentage in the state at 85% since 1972. Also, 9 state titles and 39 playoff appearances. This is all in the IHSAA Stat Book.

The game is played at a high level by teams that run first, teams that pass first, and teams that do both. Saying otherwise flies in the face of history and facts. In the end....it isn't so much what you are doing....it is how well you are doing it.
Click to expand...
Going back 40 years will skew the numbers. Back then, everybody was run-heavy. But now that we're seeing more and more offenses that take a more balanced approach, we're seeing less success from the one-dimensional teams.
 
From bcmoore....2001 to 2010
1A

R Team Conf ( W - L - T ) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Emmetsburg 1A-2 ( 97- 18- 0) 93.64 1L 72.62 ( 1) 32.08 ( 3) 11.05 ( 3)
2 Inwood West Lyon 1A-2 ( 93- 23- 0) 89.29 8W 72.42 ( 2) 27.79 ( 13) 10.91 ( 2)
3 Aplington AP 1A-3 ( 89- 19- 0) 87.76 1L 67.99 ( 10) 34.87 ( 1) 15.09 ( 14)
4 CB St Albert 1A-8 (109- 14- 0) 86.10 1L 63.24 ( 27) 33.24 ( 2) 10.60 ( 1)
5 IKM-Manning 1A-1 ( 28- 8- 0) 80.18 2L 63.19 ( 28) 30.08 ( 6) 13.08 ( 8)
6 Hartley HMS 1A-2 ( 62- 34- 0) 79.88 1L 68.08 ( 9) 26.46 ( 14) 14.65 ( 12)
7 Dike-New Hartford 1A-3 ( 75- 34- 0) 78.12 1L 67.49 ( 12) 25.50 ( 16) 14.86 ( 13)
8 Saint Ansgar 1A-3 ( 69- 33- 0) 76.00 1L 64.69 ( 23) 25.50 ( 15) 14.19 ( 9)
9 Hinton 1A-1 ( 61- 37- 0) 75.46 1L 65.68 ( 17) 25.24 ( 18) 15.47 ( 15)
10 Wapsie Valley 1A-5 ( 76- 30- 0) 74.90 1L 57.81 ( 40) 28.58 ( 11) 11.50 ( 5)
 
Originally posted by Zeek86:


The game is played at a high level by teams that run first, teams that pass first, and teams that do both. Saying otherwise flies in the face of history and facts. In the end....it isn't so much what you are doing....it is how well you are doing it.
Click to expand...
WHAT HE SAID!
 
Originally posted by Pinehawk:
I'm not looking to get into a debate about it. But, I'm not buying that these teams don't have the talent to be a well rounded team. (Again, you have to separate those that can't and those that choose not to.) In many cases I suspect the coaches just have their system and they are afraid (or don't really know how) to try anything new. But, I think they are likely limiting their team's potential. (Personally, I look at it as finding their own way to be successful.)
The higher up you look in football, through class 2A, 3A, 4A, college, professional...the more diversified you see the offenses get. (Yep.) That's because throwing it just four times a game is only going to work at the lowest levels of football. (More often than not.) It's not how the game is really meant to be played at a high level. (I thought winning is what constitutes whether you play at a high level or not. Not what offense you run. If you win with the offense (and defense) that you have, I don't see how that's a problem. But then I guess it all depends on what your definition of playing at a high level is. Obviously, what you see Regina do would be considered a high level, but then how many 1A, 2A and even a lot of 3A and 4A teams do (or can do) what Regina does with the program they have? And just by being more balanced on offense isn't necessarily going to make smaller schools be more competitive with Iowa City Regina. But then you know that......so why are we even having this conversation?
wink.r191677.gif
)
Click to expand...
 
My observation watching the finals game last year was that not throwing the ball enough wasn't even close to the primary reason Regina won.

1. Talent variance - Regina clearly had superior athletes over anyone in state. Great players can make a typical year "good" team look bad. Look at what Ames High basketball did to a lot of quality teams when they had Barnes/McDermott. Collison and company blew out SE in conference basketball play in 1999 and the very next season those same SE players won state.

2. SE didn't have a good pass defense. They had a really good run defense but Cook was able to spread them out more than they were used to with good passing and opened up big running lanes. In the semis, SE faced a team that threw significantly from a spread offense and SE won handily but Cook is a D1 prospect surrounded by a lot of good players.

3. SE actually threw the ball more in the finals than they did all season and 3 more times than even Regina attempted in the game (19 attempts). They still managed over 200 yards rushing at a healthy 5.6 ypc average and over 100 passing so it's not like the offense was non-existent. Every time they came close to scoring they turned the ball over. They had 2 INTs and 2 lost fumbles. You can't beat a more talented team when you turn the ball over 4 times. Just look at the Giants-Redskins game last night. The Giants likely aren't significantly better than the Redskins but 6 turnovers resulted in a
45-14 beat down.

4. SE didn't capitalize on Regina's mistakes. Regina fumbled the ball 5 times and only lost 2 of them.

SE could have thrown the ball 50% of the time and Regina could have ran the ball 100% and Regina would have still won. Scheme had very little to do with it. Teams like Emmetsberg will likely have ground and pound teams that win state in the future again. The current issue now is that the more talented teams like Regina just pass the ball more. It's more correlation than it is causation.
 
I agree with most of what you said, though (and I don't mean this the wrong way) you kind of contradict yourself on #2. I actually think St. Eds had a reasonably good pass defense for the 1A level and you even mention that they fared well against Van Meter, but the difference was the athletes of Regina. So SE did have a good pass D compared to your average 1A team, they just weren't able to contain a more talented offense, which is built to make even bigger upper class teams look pedestrian as well. Perhaps that's what you meant, anyway.
 
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