Football's equivalent of the Hot Stove League: projected new districts

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
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It's that magical time that only comes around every other year: "What will the new football districts look like?" We have several months (March) until the real districts are released the the IHSAA and almost as long (January) before the Iowa Department of education releases their enrollment data, but I thought I would try to keep the boards engaged by mocking up classes & districts based off grade 8-10 enrollment from the fall of 2012. That should give a good approximation of where this fall's 9-11 enrollment should stack up the schools. I will be posting each class projection on their own board until Luke consolidates everything to the off-season football board.


1 156 Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn
1 193 OABCIG, Ida Grove
1 197 Okoboji
1 164 Sibley-Ocheyedan
1 158 South O'Brien
1 165 West Lyon
1 174 Western Christian

2 159 Alta-Aurelia
2 188 Fort Dodge St Edmond
2 193 IKM/Manning
2 165 MVAO, Mapleton
2 162 North Union
2 154 Prairie Valley
2 191 Ridge View, Galva

3 196 Aplington-Parkersburg
3 174 Belmond-Klemme
3 195 Dike-New Hartford
3 197 Eagle Grove
3 164 Saint Ansgar
3 164 South Hamilton
3 172 West Fork, Sheffield

4 179 Clayton Ridge
4 162 Denver
4 172 Jesup
4 166 Maquoketa Valley
4 174 MFL-MarMac
4 157 North Linn
4 156 South Winneshiek

5 182 Durant
5 180 Easton Valley
5 191 Iowa City Regina
5 164 Lisbon
5 181 Tipton
5 175 West Branch
5 169 Wilton

6 159 East Marshall
6 188 Eddyville-Blakesburg
6 159 Highland
6 170 Pella Christian
6 186 Sigourney-Keota
6 178 Wapello
6 179 West Marshall

7 159 Colfax-Mingo
7 191 Collins-Maxwell-Baxter
7 183 Des Moines Christian
7 170 Madrid
7 162 Ogden
7 192 Woodward Academy
7 169 Woodward-Granger

8 157 Council Bluffs St Albert
8 185 Missouri Valley
8 159 Nodaway Valley
8 183 Panorama
8 189 Southwest Valley
8 177 Underwood
8 171 West Monona
 

DarkThunder#61

All State
Sep 28, 2005
10,606
12
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Wow. I don't know how much the Association will mix up the districts next year, but it'd be very interesting to see a few teams drop down to 1A or move up to 2A. Apparently, Poky is moving to 2A. That's gonna be rough for them.

MNW and E'burg dropping all the way to Class A would seem strange, but if their enrollment says they're in A and they don't ask to stay in 1A, then that's what will happen. Van Meter is in a similar boat, although they've actually been a perennial Class A team.

It'll be interesting next year to have West Marshall on that east side with Regina, though they do lose a lot of seniors that led the way for them on both sides of the ball.

West Lyon in the district presumably opposite St. Edmond could be interesting as well. West Lyon has been a very strong program through the years. In fact since their first playoff appearance in 1988, they've only missed the postseason twice (1997, 2002). 4 state titles and 2 runners-up. They do lose a lot of contributing seniors, but they're a program that reloads pretty well, too.
 
Jan 11, 2012
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OABCIG seems a little out of place in D1. A-A or more likely North Union would seem to fit better.
 
Oct 24, 2011
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Easton Valley will be A with BED around 130, and I dont think Lisbon is going to have a 30 kid jump so they will probably be A as well

This post was edited on 12/2 10:52 AM by UIhawkeyes
 

warriors dad

Freshman
Gold Member
Aug 16, 2012
202
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MNW will probably stay in 1A and prairie valley willstay in A. There is no way PV will have enrollmant #s above 140,as there class sizes are around 40 to 45.
 

WBBearsFollower

Freshman
Aug 20, 2013
495
91
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if Easton Valley and Lisbon are BOTH in 1A, you have insider information.

No way they are 1A. BEDS counts would agree.

While your post is fun, I am guessing things will look a bit differently in about a month.
 

usfhawk

All District
Jul 13, 2006
8,649
85
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Originally posted by warriors dad:
MNW will probably stay in 1A and prairie valley willstay in A. There is no way PV will have enrollmant #s above 140,as there class sizes are around 40 to 45.
Prairie Valley reported a to enrollment of 159 last year for classes 8,9,and 10. So, they may be closer to 1A than you think.

These numbers still seem way off.
 

SASF

Freshman
Sep 11, 2008
582
0
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Where would the general public such as us get reliable Beds numbers, I have goggled but to know avail, at least the most current ones. And secondly what criteria will the boys in Boone use to set the classes?
 

cc coach

Varsity
Jun 10, 2002
1,625
3
38
A potential problem with your BEDS numbers is private K-8 schools. You have South Winn at 156....... did you count the 8th grade enrollment from the TWO catholic schools (CFS and Desales) that feed into SW High School? SW would still be 1A..... but how does that sort of thing effect the numbers you are using in all the towns and districts?
 

rjt62

Freshman
Dec 14, 2005
135
0
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I'm guessing Sumner/Fred will stay in 1A, their 8th grade class is really small.
 

usfhawk

All District
Jul 13, 2006
8,649
85
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Originally posted by SASF:

Where would the general public such as us get reliable Beds numbers, I have goggled but to know avail, at least the most current ones. And secondly what criteria will the boys in Boone use to set the classes?
https://www.educateiowa.gov/document-type/district-level-enrollment
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Since I put my mock up out in November, I have since found out the Iowa Department of Education had posted revised 2012-13 enrollment numbers. That changed my model quite a bit. Also, someone else pointed out on this topic on another board that several schools gain students from K-8 private schools in their towns. So I went back and redrew everything with the most up-to-date information I have to create a new "best guess" at what districts might look like.


1 167 Emmetsburg
1 170 Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn
1 167 Hinton
1 196 Okoboji
1 169 Sibley-Ocheyedan
1 162 West Lyon
1 174 Western Christian

2 188 Fort Dodge St Edmond
2 162 Manson Northwest Webster
2 183 Pocahontas Area/Pomeroy-Palmer
2 160 Prairie Valley
2 179 Ridge View, Galva
2 166 Sioux Central
2 197 South Central Calhoun

3 191 Central Springs
3 191 Dike-New Hartford
3 188 Eagle Grove
3 163 Lake Mills
3 167 Saint Ansgar
3 164 South Hamilton
3 167 West Fork, Sheffield

4 184 Cascade
4 176 Clayton Ridge
4 164 Denver
4 173 Jesup
4 179 MFL-MarMac
4 162 South Winneshiek
4 191 Sumner-Fredericksburg

5 164 Alburnett
5 181 Columbus
5 172 Durant
5 189 Easton Valley
5 191 Iowa City Regina
5 166 Northeast, Goose Lake
5 170 West Branch

6 184 Eddyville-Blakesburg
6 163 Highland
6 162 Pekin
6 170 Pella Christian
6 179 Sigourney-Keota
6 177 Wapello
6 175 Wilton

7 160 Central Decatur
7 183 Des Moines Christian
7 167 Madrid
7 167 Ogden
7 185 West Marshall
7 207 Woodward Academy
7 170 Woodward-Granger

8 189 IKM/Manning
8 180 Missouri Valley
8 193 OABCIG, Ida Grove
8 181 Panorama
8 186 Southwest Valley
8 179 Treynor
8 172 Underwood
 
Dec 23, 2009
57
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Mount Ayr also has kids Diagonal playing on the fottball team so that will probably add about 25 kids to Mount Ayr's numbers.
 

WBBearsFollower

Freshman
Aug 20, 2013
495
91
28
Originally posted by paxregis:
Now that the IHSAA had posted the sharing/declaration list I will rerun my model with the new info.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Easton Valley will not be 1A. They will either be A (153) or 2A (275-280) (pending a board vote on consolidation)

Your Pekin number is a bit high as well.
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,118
316
83
Who would they be going with to get to 270?

Preston and East Central are the two schools that make up Easton Valley right?
 
Dec 23, 2009
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According to todays Des Moines Register the IHSAA Board will vote on the new districts at their January 22 board meeting and schedules will be released in early February. Thats if the MVC in 4A chooses to go to districts by January 10th.
 
Oct 24, 2011
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It is East Central and Preston for EV. From what I heard they will be around 130 so they will definetly be in A
 
Jan 4, 2014
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in an article from the Clinton Herald from August 2013


According to Northeast Superintendent Jim Cox, approximately 180 Easton Valley students have open enrolled to Northeast although not all students have registered. Cox estimates 160 will actually attend Northeast, with 120 of those seventh- through 12th-grade students


subtracting 50-60 from Easton Valley would leave them 130-140 and class A
adding 50-60 to Northeast would leave them 210-220 and class 2A


This post was edited on 1/5 9:32 AM by clonesisu10
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
based on the latest info available, here's another stab at 1A:


1 170 Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn
1 167 Hinton
1 196 Okoboji
1 179 Ridge View, Galva
1 169 Sibley-Ocheyedan
1 162 West Lyon
1 174 Western Christian

2 188 Eagle Grove
2 167 Emmetsburg
2 188 Fort Dodge St Edmond
2 162 Manson Northwest Webster
2 183 Pocahontas Area/Pomeroy-Palmer
2 166 Sioux Central
2 197 South Central Calhoun

3 191 Central Springs
3 164 Denver
3 191 Dike-New Hartford
3 163 Lake Mills
3 167 Saint Ansgar
3 164 South Hamilton
3 167 West Fork, Sheffield

4 169 Bellevue
4 184 Cascade
4 176 Clayton Ridge
4 173 Jesup
4 179 MFL-MarMac
4 162 South Winneshiek
4 191 Sumner-Fredericksburg

5 164 Alburnett
5 181 Columbus
5 172 Durant
5 191 Iowa City Regina
5 201 North Cedar
5 200 Tipton
5 170 West Branch

6 184 Eddyville-Blakesburg
6 163 Highland
6 162 Pekin
6 170 Pella Christian
6 179 Sigourney-Keota
6 177 Wapello
6 175 Wilton

7 201 Collins-Maxwell-Baxter
7 183 Des Moines Christian
7 167 Madrid
7 167 Ogden
7 185 West Marshall
7 207 Woodward Academy
7 170 Woodward-Granger

8 189 IKM/Manning
8 180 Missouri Valley
8 193 OABCIG, Ida Grove
8 181 Panorama
8 186 Southwest Valley
8 179 Treynor
8 172 Underwood

This post was edited on 1/11 5:16 AM by paxregis
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Originally posted by ToddDoxzon7:
Van meter is 1a
Must have had a small surge in enrollment if that's the preliminary indication they got from the IHSAA. So I will likely be wrong about them, since my data has them near the top of A (third largest). I'm sure they are not the only team on the margins i'll have in the wrong class and will make my districts complete junk. That said, here is my latest model.


1 170 Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn
1 167 Hinton
1 196 Okoboji
1 179 Ridge View, Galva
1 169 Sibley-Ocheyedan
1 162 West Lyon
1 174 Western Christian

2 167 Emmetsburg
2 188 Fort Dodge St Edmond
2 162 Manson Northwest Webster
2 183 Pocahontas Area/Pomeroy-Palmer
2 166 Sioux Central
2 197 South Central Calhoun
2 164 South Hamilton

3 191 Central Springs
3 164 Denver
3 191 Dike-New Hartford
3 188 Eagle Grove
3 163 Lake Mills
3 167 Saint Ansgar
3 167 West Fork, Sheffield

4 169 Bellevue
4 184 Cascade
4 176 Clayton Ridge
4 173 Jesup
4 179 MFL-MarMac
4 162 South Winneshiek
4 191 Sumner-Fredericksburg

5 164 Alburnett
5 172 Durant
5 191 Iowa City Regina
5 201 North Cedar
5 200 Tipton
5 170 West Branch
5 175 Wilton

6 181 Columbus
6 184 Eddyville-Blakesburg
6 163 Highland
6 162 Pekin
6 170 Pella Christian
6 179 Sigourney-Keota
6 177 Wapello

7 201 Collins-Maxwell-Baxter
7 183 Des Moines Christian
7 167 Madrid
7 167 Ogden
7 185 West Marshall
7 207 Woodward Academy
7 170 Woodward-Granger

8 189 IKM/Manning
8 180 Missouri Valley
8 193 OABCIG, Ida Grove
8 181 Panorama
8 186 Southwest Valley
8 179 Treynor
8 172 Underwood
 
Jan 4, 2014
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great work pax

I think that the districts will be very close to what you have with a few changes based on a couple of teams on the margins moving up and down
 

nwmsbearcat

Freshman
Sep 8, 2009
205
39
28
Central Decatur & I-35 are 1A...that will certainly shake up the SW and Central Iowa districts along with Van Meter. It all will be settled next Thursday.
 

TD-BOMBS

Freshman
Gold Member
Aug 7, 2007
948
0
16
Good job Pax.

I agree that the district will be close to what prediction you have made.
 

GoEagles23

Freshman
Sep 12, 2013
319
64
28
Originally posted by Anonymous2002:
Pax, you have Cascade both 1A and 2A... any confirmation on what they will be for sure come Thursday!?
I've heard 1A from my friend at school.
His father is on the Board of Education in Cascade.
This post was edited on 1/20 2:06 AM by GoEagles23
 

WBBearsFollower

Freshman
Aug 20, 2013
495
91
28
Originally posted by clonesisu10:

Cascade is at 200 and will be the second smallest 2A school

Looks like the cutout will be 198-199 for 1A-2A
^^^ incorrect. North Cedar will be disproving that theory.

(EDIT: Spoke with an NC admin today, and they feel their counted enrollment changed from 208 to 198. So I stand corrected.)
This post was edited on 1/20 7:21 PM by WBBearsFollower
 
Jan 4, 2014
8
0
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doesn't the line look like:

200 Cascade 2A
199 Unity 2A (could drop if Prairie Valley/SE Webster whole grade vote goes through)
198 North Cedar 1A
 

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