Final Playoff Predictions

[ScoutPrep4]

I know there is still another remaining week but I am predicting the playoff qualifiers with outcomes through week 9, the final RPI, and playoff pairings, so here we go:
Districts
D1- Sergeant Bluff-Luton* (5-0, 8-1), Spencer (4-1, 6-3), Storm Lake (3-2, 6-3)
D2- DC-G* (5-0, 8-1), Carroll (4-1, 5-4), Webster City (3-2, 6-3)
D3- Independence * (5-0, 9-0)
D4- Western Dubuque* (5-0, 9-0), Xavier (4-1, 8-1)
D5- North Scott* (5-0, 8-1), Assumption (4-1, 6-3), IC Liberty (3-2, 6-3)
D6- Solon* (5-0, 9-0), Washington (4-1, 7-2), Mt. Pleasant (3-2, 6-3), Keokuk (2-3, 6-3)
D7- Pella* (5-0, 7-2), Oskaloosa (4-1, 6-3)
D8- Norwalk* (5-0, 8-1), Carlisle (4-1, 7-2)
D9- Lewis Central* (4-1, 8-1), Glenwood (4-1, 7-2), Harlan (4-1, 7-2), Winterset (2-3, 5-4)

RPI
1. Solon*
2. Western Dubuque*
3. Lewis Central*
4. Sergeant Bluff-Luton*
5. Norwalk*
6. Xavier
7. Glenwood
8. Independence*
9. North Scott*
10. DC-G*
11. Harlan
12. Pella*
13. Carlisle
14. Washington
15. Assumption
16. Storm Lake
First Four Out: IC Liberty, Mt. Pleasant, Winterset, Keokuk

Pairings
Bracket #1
Carlisle @ Solon
Washington @ North Scott

Bracket #2
Assumpton @ Western Dubuque
Xavier @ Independence

Bracket #3
Storm Lake @ Lewis Central
Pella @ DC-G

Bracket #4
Harlan @ Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Glenwood @ Norwalk

 

[PNation]

Storm Lake won't make it

 

[KidSilverhair]

While it’s close (maybe close enough that OWP/OOWP from outside 3A, which I’m not using - might make my calculations wrong), I don’t think Storm Lake’s RPI will keep them above Oskaloosa for that 16 seed. It’s really close in my sheet (.5802-.5756), and again I’m not plugging in the final two weeks of non-Class-3A games, so maybe you’re right and I’m wrong. I can’t believe Oskaloosa would end up out of the top 20, though, which your numbers seem to show.

You’ve also got North Scott with an impossible record - they’ve already lost a game, so the best they can finish is 8-1. It also seems to me that the state would send Xavier - the highest seeded traveling team - to the lowest possible seeded district champion, which here would be Dallas Center-Grimes or (more likely) North Scott. It’s odd, because the seeds are backwards from the hosting, but if you can’t do a true 6-11 game (since both Xavier & Harlan have to travel) a possible 6-10 or a 6-9 would make more sense than giving 8 seed Indee the 6 seed as an opponent.

I probably think about this stuff too much ...

 

[PNation]

I would rather see Xavier go to DCG and Pella go to North Scott (I'm assuming that Pella will be the district champ that has to travel) but I can see the state flipping that, even though I think that Xavier and North Scott are two of the top 5 teams in the state.

 

[Break the Rock]

I would rather see Xavier go to DCG and Pella go to North Scott (I'm assuming that Pella will be the district champ that has to travel) but I can see the state flipping that, even though I think that Xavier and North Scott are two of the top 5 teams in the state.

North Scott v Xavier in the first round is a tough draw given that it's likely that both will be 8-1 (NS potential district champ) and both of them only losing to #1 WD. Potential 2nd round game, sure....1st round?? The Gazette has WD, Xavier and North Scott in the same quadrant - that would be a crime.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I don’t think the state looks at records at all, simply how the RPI seeds things. Last year 8-1 Pella had to go to 9-0 Xavier in the first round, which was a terrific game that was way too good a matchup for round one.

I do think it’s almost certain that a potential Xavier-Western Dubuque rematch (or North Scott-Western Dubuque, perhaps) would be bracketed for the second round. If Western Dubuque is seeded around number 3 and Xavier around number 6 (which is what looks likely to me), that becomes a reasonable game by seeding ... even though in reality that feels like a Dome game.

 

[screwloose]

BRACKET #1
Pella @ Solon
Washington @ North Scott

BRACKET #2
Davenport Assumption @ Western Dubuque
Cedar Rapids Xavier @ Independence

BRACKET #3
Storm Lake @ Council Bluffs Lewis Central
Glenwood @ Dallas Center-Grimes

BRACKET #4
Carlisle @ Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Harlan @ Norwalk

 

[paednoch23]

i dont see storm lake in

 

[KidSilverhair]

Storm Lake had a chance when these were posted, but after losing to Heelan Friday, yeah, they’re not getting in the playoffs.

 

[ScoutPrep4]

Storm Lake had a chance when these were posted, but after losing to Heelan Friday, yeah, they’re not getting in the playoffs.

Storm Lake had a legit chance to make it when I posted the predictions but now with the loss to Heelan, their chances are very slim now. They will need to beat Sergeant Bluff just to have an outside chance in my opinion. That's what you get with predictions, sometimes correct and other times it looks bad.

 

[paednoch23]

losing to Heelan proves they were way overrated, it's mathematically impossible for them now