Even fresher playoff predictions

[KidSilverhair]

Not to pat myself on the back too much, but the 32 teams I had picked to make the playoffs after Week 8 were spot on, even after a couple of unexpected outcomes (Fairfield, where did you come from?). The only blip on my overall projection was District 5, where Washington knocked off Assumption to flip-flop second and third place.

Therefore, here's what I think we'll see about 2:30 this morning. My 1v4 picks are staying exactly the same. I had to adjust the 2v3 games to account for Washington being at home and Assumption on the road.


First round, 4 at 1

Spencer at Heelan (district rematch)
ADM at Carroll
Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center Grimes

First round, 3 at 2

BHRV at Sergeant Bluff Luton (district rematch, unless the state stretches that extra mile to Humboldt)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Carlisle
Independence at Washington
Western Dubuque at Waverly Shell Rock
Norwalk at Bondurant Farrar
Davenport Assumption at Solon
Greene County at Creston

Now we see if the state sees things like I do ...

 

[smallcenter]

Did you consider that 1v4 and 2v3 isn't guaranteed anymore?

 

[KidSilverhair]

Bwuh, what? Yes they are.Where did you get the idea they're not? Does anyone even read the IAHSAA's postseason manual? It's right on their website.

"The Board based on geographic location of all qualifying schools will pair the district champion of one district with the fourth place team from another district, the runner up of one district playing the third place team of another district in the first round contest."

 

[screwloose]

I think you're spot on, Kid.

 

[smallcenter]

Welp, in an interview I saw when they announced it, a member of the board of control mentioned that we might see some intra-district games and some 1v3 and 2v4 match ups to make sure we stay inside the 125 mile limit.

We'll see here within an hour.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Wow. That 's news to me. Considering what that guy said is in direct conflict with the association's own in-writing manual, my first guess is he was talking out of his backside. I would have a hard time believing the state would throw out the seeding by district finish that they've used for years.

But weirder things have happened, I suppose. Given that my example works for 1-4 and 2-3 games with only two district rematches, I don't think they need to mess around with changing seeding, at least in 3A. But yeah, we'll see. If a Board of Control member actually said that, they must have talked about it. You'd figure they might mention that rather pertinent fact in their written manual, but honestly, I think they're making up a lot of this new playoff stuff on the fly.

 

[IowaHawkeye1964]

CLASS 3A:[/B]ADM, Adel @ Carroll [/I]
Assumption, Davenport @ Solon [/I]
Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley @ Sergeant Bluff-Luton [/I]
Charles City @ Xavier, Cedar Rapids [/I]
Epworth, Western Dubuque @ Waverly-Shell Rock [/I]
Fairfield @ Pella [/I]
Gilbert @ Humboldt [/I]
Greene County @ Creston [/I]
Independence @ Washington [/I]
Knoxville @ Dallas Center-Grimes [/I]
Newton @ Clear Creek-Amana [/I]
Norwalk @ Bondurant-Farrar [/I]
Spencer @ Bishop Heelan Catholic, Sioux City [/I]
Wahlert, Dubuque @ West Delaware, Manchester [/I]
Webster City @ Ballard [/I]
Winterset @ Carlisle

 

[smallcenter]

ADM, Adel @ Carroll [/I]
Assumption, Davenport @ Solon [/I]
Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley @ Sergeant Bluff-Luton- same district
Charles City @ Xavier, Cedar Rapids [/I]
Epworth, Western Dubuque @ Waverly-Shell Rock [/I]
Fairfield @ Pella [/I]
Gilbert @ Humboldt [/I]
Greene County @ Creston [/I]
Independence @ Washington [/I]
Knoxville @ Dallas Center-Grimes [/I]
Newton @ Clear Creek-Amana [/I]
Norwalk @ Bondurant-Farrar [/I]
Spencer @ Bishop Heelan Catholic, Sioux City-same district
Wahlert, Dubuque @ West Delaware, Manchester [/I]
Webster City @ Ballard [/I]
Winterset @ Carlisle

 

[fmclonefan]

Was looking at the matchups and then thinking about 2nd round as well. The state says that a 1 seed will not play another 1 seed in the 2nd round. The 125 mile distance, strictly enforced, doesn't apply, but the state will still try to keep travel to a mininum (unless a potential rematch exists, then teams may have to travel further to avoid such rematch).

I'm guessing that all the 1 seeds will win. So, they will all be hosting a second round game as they all will have finished higher in their respective district. This limits the matchup potentials. Here's what I have which, of course, all depends on who wins first round games.

Sergeant Bluff -- Luton @ S.C. Heelan (same if BHRV wins, nobody else within a reasonable distance for two other pairings)

Washington @ C.R. Xavier

Western Dubuque @ West Delaware (same even if Waverly SR wins, this is a rematch from week #1, but reasonable travel makes it tough for other options)

Gilbert @ DCG (same even if Humboldt wins. Humboldt could go to SC Heelan, but a lack of reasonable distance opponent exists with SBL, Creston -- DCG are in same district)

Solon @ Clear Creek Amana

Creston @ Ballard

Carlisle @ Carroll (Carlisle is the team that makes these central Iowa matchups a longer distance. They have played Ballard, Pella, and DCG this season and Carroll is still in reasonable traveling distance)

Bondurant - Farrar @ Pella (B-F and Ballard in same district, so won't be paired up).

Looking forward to Wednesday night to get this thing going!!

 

[KidSilverhair]

It helps the eastern side a lot when Assumption slipped down to the 3rd place spot, and will now probably get sent home by Solon. Taking that far eastern Davenport location out of the mix for the second round would give the state a few more options.

I haven't studied the possible second-round games yet. Just got up and now I have to rake. Maybe I will look at them later - but what you've got makes sense, I think. It's just gonna be old home week(s) for Heelan, isn't it?