Early Playoff Guesser 2016 (too early? probably)

[KidSilverhair]

There's just three weeks left in the 2016 football season. Where has the time gone? Four weeks into district play, we can start to make some predictions about how the playoffs might shake out. All of this is based on wild speculation and reading of tea leaves. Please, no wagering.

DISTRICT 1

Key games: All of Spirit Lake's games (Week 7 vs Storm Lake, Week 8 at Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Week 9 at Heelan)

If Spirit Lake loses all three, Sergeant Bluff/Luton would take 2nd at 5-2 (head-to-head over Heelan). If Spirit Lake loses to Storm Lake but wins the other 2, they take 2nd at 5-2 (SBL and Heelan 4-3).
I'm thinking Spirit Lake beats Heelan, but loses the other two, hence:

1. Storm Lake 7-0 district
2. Sergeant Bluff/Luton 5-2
3. Spirit Lake 4-3
4. Heelan 4-3
5. Spencer 4-3
6. Le Mars 3-4
7. Humboldt 1-6
8. Algona 0-7

DISTRICT 2

Key games: Dallas Center/Grimes at Boone Week 8
Boone at Webster City Week 9
Gilbert at Dallas Center/Grimes Week 9

If Boone wins out, they win the district. Gilbert would be 6-1 if they beat Dallas Center/Grimes, and Webster City would be 5-2.
If Dallas Center/Grimes beats Gilbert, they'd both finish 5-2 and would need a Boone win over Webster City to force a 3-way tie for second.
Just for grins, I say Webster City beats Boone Week 9, with a Gilbert win, so we get three playoff qualifiers out of this district (order of the top three determined by tiebreakers):

1. Boone 6-1 district
2. Webster City 6-1
3. Gilbert 6-1
4. Dallas Center/Grimes 4-3
5. Ballard 3-4
6. Iowa Falls/Alden 2-5
7. Perry 1-6
8. Greene County 0-7

DISTRICT 3

Key games: None really. Waverly-Shell Rock needs to win out (Xavier Week 9, South Tama Week 8 and Charles City Week 9) to hope to get in a 3-way tie for first. I don't think Benton has a loss ahead of them and South Tama already has 2 district losses.

1. Xavier 7-0 district
2. Benton 6-1
3. South Tama 4-3
4. Waverly-Shell Rock 4-3
5. Decorah 3-4
6. Charles City 3-4
7. Vinton-Shellsburg 1-6
8. Independence 0-7

DISTRICT 4

Key games: Clear Creek/Amana at Davenport Assumption Week 8. An Assumption win could set up a 3-way tie at 6-1.

Marion could be a spoiler, as they still play most of the district leaders.

1. Clear Creek/Amana 7-0 district
2. West Delaware 6-1
3. Davenport Assumption 5-2
4. Dubuque Wahlert 4-3
5. Marion 3-4
6. Center Point/Urbana 2-5
7. Central DeWitt 1-6
8. Maquoketa 0-7

​

DISTRICT 5

Key games: Oskaloosa at Keokuk Week 7, and Washington at Oskaloosa Week 8.

If Oskaloosa beats Keokuk, the Washington-Oskaloosa winner will take second place. I say Washington wins that game, but I could be wrong ...

1. Solon 7-0 district
2. Washington 5-2
3. Oskaloosa 5-2
4. Keokuk 4-3
5. Fairfield 3-4
6. Mt Pleasant 2-5
7. West Burlington/ND 2-5
8. Fort Madison 0-7

​

DISTRICT 6

Key games: Pella at Norwalk Week 7, Carlisle at Norwalk Week 9

While it appears the Pella/Norwalk game will just decide first and second place, Carlisle has a shot to climb into second if Norwalk loses both those games. A Pella loss plus a Carlisle win could mean a 3-way tie.

1. Pella 7-0 district
2. Norwalk 6-1
3. Carlisle 5-2
4. Bondurant-Farrar 4-3
5. North Polk 3-4
6. Nevada 2-5
7. Grinnell 1-6
8. Knoxville 0-7

​

DISTRICT 7

Key games: Creston at Glenwood Week 7, Creston at Carroll Week 9

A Glenwood win Friday could set up a 3-way tie in this district. Otherwise, the Week 9 game would just decide between first and second.

1. Creston/OM 7-0 district
2. Carroll 6-1
3. Glenwood 5-2
4. Harlan 4-3
5. ADM 3-4
6. Winterset 2-5
7. Denison-Schleswig 1-6
8. Atlantic 0-7

​

PLAYOFF QUALIFIERS

Going by what I've predicted here, you've got these district champions

• Storm Lake
• Let's just say Webster City with the tiebreaker
• Xavier
• Clear Creek/Amana
• Solon
• Pella
• Creston/OM

Then second-place finishers

• Sergeant Bluff/Luton
• Let's say Boone with this tiebreaker
• Benton
• West Delaware
• Washington
• Norwalk
• Carroll

Gilbert, by tying for the lead in District 2, gets one of the wild-card spots. The final spot would be determined by tiebreaker between Davenport Assumption, Oskaloosa, Carlisle and Glenwood.

Can you imagine a possible first-round game between West Delaware and Xavier? Or Norwalk and Creston? There are already some really, really tough potential first-round matches coming into play here.

 

[Robert John]

Good info Kid. Thanks for doing this.

 

[fmclonefan]

Good work Kid. Would not want to be the district champ that has to play the loser of the Pella/Norwalk game in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[El_Doce]

Do we think they will put all 1s vs 2s or will they seed the bracket. Not sure why they would bracket without seeding? If they do 1s vs 2s they could put the Pella/Norwalk loser against another 2, since there is one more game than the number dist champs. I realize I asking for logic out of this, and it probably won't happen.

 

[fmclonefan]

True El_Doce. The wild cards will certainly throw a monkey wrench into the whole system. I certainly don't see the state seeding. That won't happen. Will be based on geography more then anything else. But, in saying that, district 2 and district 7 both look like they could potentially have a wildcard so that would factor into central Iowa pairings. Not sure how the state will deal with that. I would think they would try to get a district champ vs. a wildcard which could leave two #2 teams to pair up.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I'm totally guessing here, because the IHSAA hasn't said much of anything about how they'll set up the playoffs, but I would have to think the district champions get 1) a home game for the first round, and 2) not play another district champion. Since the state's stated goal forever has been to give district champions some kind of benefit for winning their district, I can't imagine they'd do anything besides that.

Now that does leave one first round game that would end up between two non-district champions. You have 7 champions, yet 8 first-round games. So one of those games (at least; I think it will be only one) is going to feature two 2nd or 3rd place finishers (based on tiebreakers, of course ... they could have tied for 2nd or even the district lead). There's just no other way to do it.

 

[ISUChip]

Ideally:
Two 1/3, Five 1/2, and One 2/2

I'd bet they stick close to that. Some teams may get moved to different lines to avoid district rematches but keep reasonable travel distances.

Where the 3rd place teams get slotted may also depend on if they are in as co-champs or as the actual 3rd place team.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Because I'm really just a big ol' nerd, and because I enjoy working out possibilities, I've started looking more in-depth at how things might work out over the final three weeks. I've only gotten through three districts so far, but here's what I've come up with.

DISTRICT 1

STORM LAKE: In the playoffs with 2 wins, need help if they lose 2
SPIRIT LAKE: Probably in with 2 wins
SERGEANT BLUFF/LUTON: Win out and they're in, need help with 2 wins
HEELAN: Need help even if they win out
SPENCER: I didn't run their possibilities. At best, they're likely going to lose to Storm Lake and be out at 4-3 in the district. If they win out, I suppose they have a shot.
LE MARS, HUMBOLDT, ALGONA: All have 3 or more district losses, so I don't think there's a shot.

​

DISTRICT 2

BOONE: Win out and in. Win 2 and in unless Webster City and Gilbert win out, then we're to a tiebreaker.
WEBSTER CITY: Win out and in. Win 2 and need help.
GILBERT: Win out and in (unless Webster City wins out, then it's a tiebreak). Still have a chance with another loss.
DALLAS CENTER/GRIMES: Win out and in. Has a chance to get in a tiebreaker with one more loss.
BALLARD: Need help even if they win out.
IOWA FALLS/ALDEN, PERRY, GREENE COUNTY: All with at least 3 district losses already.
​

DISTRICT 3

XAVIER: Win 2 and in, unless Waverly-Shell Rock and Benton win out, then it's a tiebreaker.
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK: Win out and in, unless Benton wins out and Xavier is also 6-1, then it's a three-way tie. Can get to a tiebreaker with one more loss, with help.
BENTON: Win out and in, unless Waverly-Shell Rock beats Xavier, then it's a tie. Can get to a tiebreaker with one more loss, with help.
CHARLES CITY: Win out and in. Beat Benton on Friday and they still have a shot at a tiebreak situation with another loss.
SOUTH TAMA. Need help even if they win out.
DECORAH, VINTON-SHELLSBURG, INDEPENDENCE: All with 3 or more district losses. Decorah can play spoiler, still yet to face South Tama and Charles City.
​

That's what I got so far. Other teams with 3+ district losses and pretty much out of the playoff picture:

DISTRICT 4: Center Point/Urbana, Central De Witt, Maquoketa
DISTRICT 5: Fairfield and Mount Pleasant
DISTRICT 6: Nevada, Grinnell and Knoxville
DISTRICT 7: Harlan, Winterset, Denison-Schleswig and Atlantic​

 

[ISUChip]

Points are going to be precious over the final 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see how many coaches try for the 17 max in a game that may already be decided.

For example, at this moment, Glenwood is first out -- by 1 point.

 

[FLBP]

Thank you Kid for doing this. Always enjoy reading it.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Good work!

 

[PNation]

District 4 basically comes down to Benton vs. Charles City. Xavier isn't going to lose, so WSR is going to have 2 loses no matter what, if Benton wins they have Indee and Vinton remaining, no way they lose to Independence, Vinton could get them but it wouldn't matter in tie breaks. If Charles City wins, they would still have Decorah and Waverly which are two tough games so it would keep things wide open.

 

[KidSilverhair]

District 4 basically comes down to Benton vs. Charles City. Xavier isn't going to lose, so WSR is going to have 2 loses no matter what, if Benton wins they have Indee and Vinton remaining, no way they lose to Independence, Vinton could get them but it wouldn't matter in tie breaks. If Charles City wins, they would still have Decorah and Waverly which are two tough games so it would keep things wide open.

Pretty much thinking the same thing, it basically comes down to this week. If Xavier and Benton win their games Friday, it's almost a certainty they'll be the playoff representatives from District 3.

(I've had trouble with the new district numbers myself. Last Friday I kept saying the West Delaware-Clear Creek/Amana game was a big one for District 5, when of course they're in District 4.)