Districts going into the final week

[KidSilverhair]

We figured out some things from last Friday, but there's still plenty to be decided as we go into the final regular season game of this weird, crazy, unusual season.

As far as district tiebreakers go, well ... I don't know. I don't think the IHSAA knows either. Their guidance in the postseason manual says, if teams haven't played the same number of district games, two-way ties will be decided by common opponents. If they're both unbeaten in the district (possible in D-4, where North Scott could end up 3-0 and Assumption or Wahlert will be 4-0), what the heck does that mean? The manual also says three-way ties will be broken by head-to-head competition, loser out. There's a couple of districts that could have three teams with 4-1 district records, with A beating B, who beat C, who beat A ... there's no guidance there! I don't know what the heck the state is going to do with that!

Anyway ...

D-1: If SBL beats Spencer, they win the district. A Spencer win gives them the title if BHRV loses to Storm Lake. Wins by both Spencer and BHRV result in a three-way tie that, apparently, has no possibility of being resolved. Ha!

D-2: Webster City has won the district. Even if they lose to Boone and Ballard ties them with a 4-1 record, they've defeated Ballard head-to-head.

D-3: Decorah's loss to Waverly-Shell Rock mixed things up here. Decorah still wins the district if they can beat Western Dubuque, since the Vikings have already defeated West Delaware. If Decorah loses and West Delaware beats Waterloo East, West Delaware wins the district, since they've beaten Western Dubuque head-to-head. Western Dubuque can take the district if they beat Decorah and West Delaware somehow trips up against Waterloo East.

D-4: I think the winner of Assumption-Wahlert takes this district. I think. North Scott can still go unbeaten with wins over Marion and Clinton, but they'll have one fewer district game than either Assumption or Wahlert.

D-5: Washington takes the district by beating Keokuk. Should Keokuk win and Fort Madison beats Fairfield, Washington and Fort Madison would be 4-1 and Keokuk 3-1 ... does that mean Washington still wins? Future hazy, try again later, says the IHSAA Magic 8-ball.

D-6: Xavier has won the district. Even with a loss to Benton, the only other possible 4-1 teams (Grinnell and Clear Creek-Amana) have already lost to the Saints.

D-7: The Nevada-Pella game decides the district champion.

D-8: The winner of Dallas Center-Grimes vs Winterset wins the district.

D-9: The winner of Harlan-Lewis Central will be the district champ.

 

[KidSilverhair]

So, we know this for byes. Xavier and Webster City have earned first-round byes. The winners of Harlan-Lewis Central, DCG-Winterset, Pella-Nevada, and Assumption-Wahlert will also have byes. That’s six. Washington is almost certainly another, for seven.

For eight and nine, they’ll come from SBL/Spencer/BHRV and Decorah/West Delaware/Western Dubuque. Which leaves number 10 ... will that go to North Scott if they finish 5-0/3-0?

There should be ten pods of 3 (with all the bye teams waiting for the winner of a first-round game) and then six pods of 4. I think that’s right.

 

[ronsss]

thks kidsilverharir......anyone know where i can watch the dallas center grimes vs winterset online..i would like to see this game?????

 

[Break the Rock]

So, we know this for byes. Xavier and Webster City have earned first-round byes. The winners of Harlan-Lewis Central, DCG-Winterset, Pella-Nevada, and Assumption-Wahlert will also have byes. That’s six. Washington is almost certainly another, for seven.

For eight and nine, they’ll come from SBL/Spencer/BHRV and Decorah/West Delaware/Western Dubuque. Which leaves number 10 ... will that go to North Scott if they finish 5-0/3-0?

There should be ten pods of 3 (with all the bye teams waiting for the winner of a first-round game) and then six pods of 4. I think that’s right.

I believe I read an interview with the folks involved in the pairings and they were specifically asked about a case like North Scott. The response was that they have said since day 1 that a team would not be penalized for COVID related forfeits.....so that Assumption and NS would/may be both considered district champions if they finished undefeated. The premise being NS may get the 10th bye under that line of thinking in addition to the Wahlert/Assumption winner.

Outside of that possibility I would think the loser of the Lewis Central/Harlan would get a bye

We shall see.

 

[redwhiteblu1]

yes, i agreed on Harlan. Seems lke the next highest rated team would get bye. Harlan probablyget buys and plays winner of Carroll/Denison. CBLC gets bye and gets winner of Glenwood and Creston. Thats if state really goes geography like it says.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Todd Tharp did get back to me about the tiebreakers ... well, specifically the D-4 tiebreaker where either Assumption or Wahlert will end up 4-0 in the district and North Scott could be 3-0. He basically said, well, we may not be able to determine a district champion in that case, and we’d just make sure those two teams wouldn’t meet until at least the third round.

He also did not say anythIng about breaking three-way ties, where A beat B, B beat C, and C beat A. Last year those ties would have been broken by RPI ... this year, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I guess D-1 is the only district in 3A where that might happen, and SBL can take care of that by just winning over Spencer.

2020 is not being nice to all of us ...

 

[KidSilverhair]

I left out D-5 as a possible tie situation. The easiest outcome would be if SBL and Washington simply win their games, which gives clear district winners in D-1 and D-5. D-4 is almost certainly going to have two teams with zero district losses, though.

We could end up with 10 teams as district “champions,“ which is workable under this year‘s format. The possibility exists, though, of up to 14 teams staking claims to their district titles, and how that might shake out with 10 byes and determining matchups and home fields by “district finish” is going to get interesting.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Man, these pods are going to be nuts. First off, you have to take Des Moines Hoover out, so that’s 53 total teams. Or does Hoover get paired with a team that becomes essentially an 11th bye? You’d almost have to, or else you get an odd number for the second round.

Okay, let’s say West Delaware wins D-3 and you’ve got Assumption and North Scott both unbeaten in D-4. That gives you four teams (including Xavier) expecting byes in the area covering Cedar Rapids/Dubuque/Quad Cities, meaning four pods of three, but only six other teams in the area. You’re two short. (If Decorah wins D-3 it’s easier, as they could get podded with Charles City/Mason City and then building your eastern Iowa pods gets a bit easier, but still short one team).

Sticking with geography is going to be rough on competitive balance. For example, a logical geographical pod for SBL (if they win D-1) would be with LeMars and Heelan, who are going to have 2 wins between them, while Lewis Central or Harlan (with just one loss between them) very easily could eliminate the other in the second round.

I’m just glad it’s not up to me to figure these out. I should just take Coach Schulte’s philosophy of “just tell us who we’re playing, and we’ll show up and play.”

 

[ISUChip]

Man, these pods are going to be nuts. First off, you have to take Des Moines Hoover out, so that’s 53 total teams. Or does Hoover get paired with a team that becomes essentially an 11th bye? You’d almost have to, or else you get an odd number for the second round.

11 byes
42 teams play first round (21 games)

11+21=32 in round two.

Or, if you're counting by teams/pod, (11x3) + (5x4) = 53.