District Champion Scenarios, Vol. 1

[KidSilverhair]

While RPI has taken a lot of the juice out of predicting district finishes for playoff purposes, it’s still important to win that district title. You get a home game in the first round (well, 8 out of 9 of you do) and a district championship is a big deal.

Here’s the scenarios I’ve scoped out for teams in each district. I’ve probably missed a few things, cause I’m out of town and working on it in a lesser-than-controlled manner than I usually do, so take that into consideration.

What is an easy thing to figure after Week 7 is that every district has at least one team with a 3-0 district record, and at least one team at 0-3. That makes it simple to note the teams already eliminated from any chance at the title.

Here we go:

D-1
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON: wins with a victory over Storm Lake, or with a win this week plus a Storm Lake loss. A win over Denison-Schleswig this week means no worse than a 3-way tie.
SPENCER: Needs 2 wins plus 2 SBL losses.
STORM LAKE: Needs 2 wins, 2 SBL losses, and a loss by Spencer.
LE MARS & DENISON-SCHLESWIG: With 2 wins plus 2 SBL losses plus losses by Storm Lake and Spencer, there’s the chance for a big mess with a 3-2 district record ... but then it goes to RPI and it wouldn’t look good for either one.
HEELAN: Eliminated.

D-2
CARROLL: Wins with a victory over Dallas Center-Grimes.
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES: Needs 2 wins, or a win over Carroll plus a Webster City loss to Boone.
WEBSTER CITY: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Carroll losses.
HUMBOLDT, BOONE, PERRY: Eliminated.

D-3
INDEPENDENCE: Wins with a win over Decorah, or a win over Waverly-Shell Rock plus a Decorah loss.
DECORAH: Needs 2 wins.
WATERLOO EAST: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Independence losses.
WEST DELAWARE & WAVERLY SHELL-ROCK: Could potentially get in a 3-2 tie situation, but again, RPI is not their friend.
CHARLES CITY: Eliminated.

D-4
WESTERN DUBUQUE: Takes the title with a win.
XAVIER: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Western Dubuque losses.
CENTER POINT-URBANA: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Western Dubuque losses.
MAQUOKETA & DUBUQUE WAHLERT: Within range of a 3-2 tie for the title, settled by RPI ... but almost certainly eliminated.
MARION: Eliminated.

D-5
NORTH SCOTT: Takes the title with a win over Davenport Assumption.
DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION: Needs 2 wins.
IOWA CITY LIBERTY: Needs 2 wins plus an Assumption win over North Scott.
CLEAR CREEK-AMANA, CENTRAL DE WITT, CLINTON: Eliminated.

D-6
SOLON: Takes the title with a win.
WASHINGTON: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Solon losses.
MT. PLEASANT: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Solon losses.
KEOKUK/FT MADISON: Either could get in a 3-2 tie with 2 wins and help ... almost certainly eliminated by RPI.
FAIRFIELD: Eliminated.

D-7
PELLA: Wins with a victory over Grinnell, or a win over Newton plus a Grinnell loss to South Tama.
GRINNELL: Needs 2 wins plus an Oskaloosa loss.
OSKALOOSA: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Pella losses.
(Two Oskaloosa wins plus two Grinnell wins plus Pella over Newton is a 3-way tie)
NEWTON/KNOXVILLE: Either can get to a 3-2 tie with 2 wins plus help, but likely eliminated by RPI.
SOUTH TAMA: Eliminated.

D-8
NORWALK: Takes the title with a win over Ballard.
CARLISLE: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Norwalk losses.
BALLARD: Needs 2 wins plus a Carlisle loss.
BONDURANT-FARRAR/NORTH POLK: Potential for a 3-2 tie, but need help and RPI probably ends their chances.
GILBERT: Eliminated.

D-9
GLENWOOD: Takes the district with a win over Lewis Central, or a win over Creston plus a Lewis Central loss to ADM.
HARLAN: Needs 2 wins plus 2 Glenwood losses.
LEWIS CENTRAL: Needs 2 wins plus a Harlan loss.
(Lewis Central over Glenwood, Glenwood over Creston, Lewis Central over ADM, plus 2 Harlan wins causes a 3-way tie)
ADM/WINTERSET: Could get to a 3-2 tie by winning out with help, but probably eliminated by RPI.
CRESTON: Eliminated.

 

[PNation]

So essentially

D1- SBL is going to win
D2- Carroll or DCG is going to win
D3- Independence has the inside track, but Decorah does have a clear path
D4- Western Dubuque is going to win
D5- North Scott should be the champion
D6- Solon is going to win
D7- Pella should be the champion, I think if they lost to Grinnell it would end up in a 3 way tie which they should win
D8- Norwalk is going to win
D9- The Glenwood vs LC winner should be the winner (based on RPI if there is a 3 way tie)

 

[KidSilverhair]

Your shorthand is just about right.

The only way SBL loses D-1 is by losing to Storm Lake. Not likely.

The winner of Carroll-DCG takes D-2 unless some weird things happen.

The winner of Decorah-Independence almost certainly wins D-3.

Western Dubuque has practically wrapped up D-4.

The winner of North Scott-Assumption probably takes D-5. Liberty has an outside shot, but needs North Scott to lose twice.

Solon has about wrapped up D-6.

Grinnell can take D-7 with 2 wins and an Osky loss, otherwise that’s going to Pella.

Norwalk has essentially locked D-8.

The Lewis Central-Glenwood winner almost certainly takes D-9. Harlan needs some weird stuff to happen.

 

[ronsss]

i hope harlan does not play lewis central again, i am allmost certain they would probably loose ...they had some things happen in the last game, that gave them great momentum, that probably will not happen next time. harlan stopped lewis central many times on defense, doubt it would happen again