Deeper Dive Into Playoffs

[KidSilverhair]

As promised, I've gone a bit deeper into the final three weeks to get a district-by-district breakdown of everybody's chances. Now, a lot of these predictions do assume the teams at the top end of the district will be able to defeat the teams at the bottom, so crazy upsets can make a lot of this moot. Also, given those assumptions, it appears there's no chance for a 4-3 district record to make the playoffs. I think we all knew that, but crunching the numbers really makes it obvious.

(Possible exception: District 5. Right now you've got Solon at 4-0, Oskaloosa at 3-1 and a bunch of 2-2 teams, and they're all still playing each other. It might be possible to get a 4-3 team in from there, but frankly ... there's so many possibilities in that district I didn't run them all. Life's too short.)

DISTRICT 1

STORM LAKE: Win two and they're in, lose two and they'll need help.
SPIRIT LAKE: Win two and they're most likely in.
SERGEANT BLUFF/LUTON: Win out and they're in, win two they need help.
HEELAN: Need help even if they win out.
SPENCER: Didn't run their chances, but they'd have to win out (including beating Storm Lake Week 8) to have a shot.

OUT: Le Mars, Humboldt, Algona.
​

DISTRICT 2

BOONE: Win out, they're in. Win two and in, unless Webster City and Gilbert both win out (then we go to a tiebreaker - right now Gilbert would lose that)
WEBSTER CITY: Win out and they're in. Win two, they need help.
GILBERT: Win out and they're in, unless Webster City wins out, then they probably lose the tiebreaker. Still an outside shot with another loss.
DALLAS CENTER/GRIMES: Win out and in, could get in a tiebreaker with another loss.
BALLARD: Need help even if they win out.

OUT: Iowa Falls/Alden, Perry, Greene County.
​

DISTRICT 3

XAVIER: Beat Waverly-Shell Rock Friday and they're in (again, we're assuming a win over Vinton-Shellsburg next week). Even with a loss, they're probably in if they win the last two (worst case is a three-way tie with WSR and Benton, and they probably win that tiebreak).
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK: Win out and in, unless Xavier and Benton also finish 6-1. WSR probably gets the points tiebreaker over Benton there. Can also get into a tie at 5-2 with some help.
BENTON: Win out and they're in, unless WSR beats Xavier, then they probably lose the three-way tiebreaker. Can get in at 5-2 with help.
CHARLES CITY: Must beat Benton to have any chance. In if they win out.
SOUTH TAMA: Need help even if they win out.

OUT: Decorah, Vinton-Shellsburg, Independence.
​

DISTRICT 4

CLEAR CREEK/AMANA: Win two and they're in, although in a three-way tie if West Delaware and Assumption win out. CCA has the points tiebreaker currently.
WEST DELAWARE: Win out and they're in, unless Assumption wins out (points tiebreaker would be very close with Assumption). Still a chance with another loss, but if it's to Wahlert or Marion those chances are slim.
DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION: Win out and they're in, unless West Delaware wins out (points tiebreaker would be very close with West Delaware). Still a chance with another loss, but only if West Delaware loses another.
MARION: Win out and they're in. Need some help at 5-2.
DUBUQUE WAHLERT: Need help even if they win out.

OUT: Center Point/Urbana, Central De Witt, Maquoketa.
​

DISTRICT 5

This is a mess. Let's assume SOLON wins out; they're in. Then:
OSKALOOSA: Needs to win two (facing Keokuk/Washington/West Burlington).
WEST BURLINGTON: Probably needs to win out, which means beating both Solon and Washington.
WASHINGTON: Should be in if they win out (would hold the tiebreaker over Oskaloosa).
KEOKUK: Probably in if they win out, which means beating Oskaloosa and Mount Pleasant.
MOUNT PLEASANT: Win out (including over Solon), and hope Washington loses another.

OUT: Fairfield, Fort Madison.

​

DISTRICT 6

NORWALK: Win two and they're in, although in a three-way tie if Carlisle wins out (Carlisle is pretty far behind in points). In with two losses unless Bondurant-Farrar wins out.
PELLA: Win two and they're in, although in a three-way tie if Carlisle wins out (Carlisle is pretty far behind in points). Pella holds most tiebreakers, so even at 5-2 they're in if Carlisle and North Polk lose another game.
CARLISLE: Win out and need two losses from either Norwalk or Pella (would likely lose in a 3-way tiebreaker). Slight chance at 5-2.
BONDURANT-FARRAR: Really slim chances. Need to win out and have Norwalk lose 2 to get in a tie.
NORTH POLK: Need a lot of help even if they win out.

OUT: Nevada, Grinnell,Knoxville.
​

DISTRICT 7

CRESTON: Beat Glenwood Friday and they'll be in (unless they lose their last two and ADM wins out). Lose to Glenwood, and they need to beat Carroll Week 9 to get in (unless Glenwood wins out, then we've got a tiebreak situation, although Creston and Carroll currently hold that edge).
CARROLL: Win two and they're in. Glenwood could get in a three-way tie by winning out, but they'd likely lose the points tiebreaker.
GLENWOOD: Win out and they're either in the playoffs or in a tie,which they'd probably lose the tiebreaker. Can get in at 5-2 if Carroll wins out and ADM loses another game.
ADM: Needs to win out and have Creston lose two games.

OUT: Harlan, Winterset, Denison-Schleswig, Atlantic.​

 

[Iowamavs14]

District 3 deserves a wild card pick. Very strong district.

 

[PNation]

I don't know if it is really that strong or if the teams after Xavier are just all mediocre

 

[ugtm]

I appreciate the work put in by the OP. It was an interesting read. I could add one thing. If D2 ended in a three way tie with WC, Boone and Gilbert. They tie for the district championship which is the first criteria for the wild card. Just for the sake of discussion if there were two other three way ties. District record is the second criteria in which case they would all be 6-1. Since you can't have a three way tie with a better record. I would think they would all be in.. Having said that. I doubt they will all be 6-1.

 

[DSM SPORTS FAN]

the wildcard picks have disaster written all over them, I hope this is a 1 year and done experiment.

 

[fmclonefan]

Good work Kid....I think I might be dizzy. Should be less dizzy after this Friday. But still dizzy.

Will be very interesting to see how the whole wildcard thing plays out. Will be several 5-2 teams in the hunt at the end. Alphabetical draw...come on down!

 

[PNation]

One question I have is if there is a two way tie, is that part of the equation, I think if a district has 3 teams with a 5-2 district record and tied for second they should go before a 5-2 team out of another district that was in 3rd.

 

[FLBP]

I will admit when the playoff system went from 16 to 32 I was not a big fan, I felt to many first round games were blowouts and some teams with bad records got in and shouldn't have. I always felt if you got in your for sure earned that right. Now after going back to the 16 team structure. Some teams that will be 5-2 and have had a good season will be left out. I don't believe in everyone gets a trophy crap but I also don't believe going by alphabet should have anything to do with a tie breaker system. 5-2 this day and age really is a good season in my book. I know the next three weeks will clear things up a lot. If I remember right years ago, I swear a team from Coon Rapids had only one loss and did not make the playoffs, I could be wrong, In my book, that is a screw job. This season, There are some tough districts, Districts 1,2,3, & 7 are pretty tough districts in my book, Gonna be an interesting last 2 weeks and we will see who can get it done on the field.

 

[KidSilverhair]

One question I have is if there is a two way tie, is that part of the equation, I think if a district has 3 teams with a 5-2 district record and tied for second they should go before a 5-2 team out of another district that was in 3rd.

The state hasn't spoken to that. The wild-card criteria is a team that tied for the title; has a better district record; beat another wild-card contender head-to-head; the 17-point tiebreaker; or the alphabet. I don't think there's any special consideration given to a 5-2 team that tied for second as opposed to another 5-2 team that finished third.

Another interesting thing while I ran possibilities - Districts 3 and 4 could mathematically end up with five teams tied for the lead at 5-2 (and District 1 could end up with four, maybe five although I didn't check Spencer's outcomes). Now these would be extremely unlikely (the current district leaders would have to lose two of their last three, for example), but the very possibility no doubt casts a cold shadow across the hearts of our friends in Boone. "Here's our great plan! Anybody who ties for the district lead gets in the playoffs! Who could complain?" "Um, there are five teams tied for first in this district, but only four of them can get in. Someone might complain, maybe ..."

 

[La_Fleur]

Did anyone else see that there will be a pairings show at 10 am the Saturday morning after the final game where the matchups will be revealed? Obviously, this is different from previous years where the matchups were revealed early Saturday morning online.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

Did anyone else see that there will be a pairings show at 10 am the Saturday morning after the final game where the matchups will be revealed? Obviously, this is different from previous years where the matchups were revealed early Saturday morning online.

They are still going to release the playoff qualifiers late, late Friday night or early, early Saturday morning. That way if anyone feels there is a mistake made in the actual qualifiers they can notify the IHSAA right away for them to double check.

But then yes, they will have the Pairings Show on Saturday morning at 10 AM to release the actual brackets live streamed online. Should be interesting.

 

[KidSilverhair]

The playoff manual has been released on the IAHSAA website. Some interesting tidbits:

- They're going to bracket the playoffs again. I think some of us heard that last spring, but some of us may have forgotten. Playoff teams will know their possible opponents when the brackets are released October 22 (or really, really late the 21st, whichever). The state won't reshuffle the matchups each week like they did the past two years.

- District champions may get a first-round rematch with a wild-card qualifier from their district. I'm sure this is for travel reasons, with the state covering their bases in case the only other possible matchup was a 300-mile round trip or something. They will not pair district champions with the runner-up from their district, but the third-place finisher is fair game.

- That head-to-head tiebreaker for the wild-card spots? It doesn't have to be directly against the team you're contending for a spot with. If you're in the wild-card pool, and you lost to anybody else also in the wild-card pool, you are eliminated. So say Pleasanttown (+12.5 tiebreaker), Nicetown (+2.00), Happytown (-0.25), Partytown (+4.25) and Grumpsburg (+6.00), all in different districts, all finished 5-2, and are in consideration for the two wild-card spots. The only two of those who played each other were Nicetown and Grumpsburg in Week 2, with Nicetown winning 21-17. That eliminates Grumpsburg, and the other four now go into the 17-point tiebreaker to see which two get the wild-card (which in this scenario would be Pleasanttown and Partytown). I had kind of been under the impression that the head-to-head would only be considered for the last spot, if those two particular teams had played a non-district game, but no.

It looks like the only non-district games that could conceivably come into play are: Carroll over Heelan; Creston over Boone; Boone over Bondurant-Farrar; Gilbert over Carlisle; Pella over Dallas Center/Grimes; Ballard over Carlisle; Marion over Benton; Pella over Oskaloosa; and Clear Creek/Amana over Mt. Pleasant. Obviously if teams like Pella, Benton, Creston, Carroll, Clear Creek/Amana or Boone aren't in that wild-card pool because they finished first or second, those games wouldn't be involved in wild-card figuring. If Carlisle's only path is via a wild-card, they'd better hope Gilbert or Ballard isn't in the mix as well.​

 

[IOU1]

I don't know if it is really that strong or if the teams after Xavier are just all mediocre

Xavier is in a league of their own compared to the rest of D3...after their 42-0 dismantling of WSR, there shouldn't be much discussion about that. What I struggle with though, is just how good/bad the next level of teams really are. Take CRX out of the picture and Benton, WSR, Decorah are probably all duking it out for the title. My question is...would that be a pillow fight between bad teams or a decent representation of what most other districts look like?

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

When looking at the non-district games of Decorah, WSR, and Benton it appears that they aren't necessarily pushovers. Would you say this is Xavier's best team since being in 3A?

 

[IOU1]

Would you say this is Xavier's best team since being in 3A?

I think so...the Wilson kid who transferred in from CR Wash is a special talent. Probably only 2-3 backs like him in 3A...if that. Schulte is a 3-year starter at QB. Offensively they are efficient and explosive. Defensively, they are talented enough to play 4 across the back and attack with 7.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Defensively, they are talented enough to play 4 across the back and attack with 7.

I'm assuming they're just playing 0 coverage like always?

 

[IOU1]

I'm assuming they're just playing 0 coverage like always?

Seems that way, both in person and on film, straight up 0 with very little if any switching. The get SO MUCH pressure with the down 4 and occasional linebacker blitz that very few teams have enough time to exploit potential matchup problems.

 

[uimathguy]

The playoff manual has been released on the IAHSAA website. Some interesting tidbits:

- That head-to-head tiebreaker for the wild-card spots? It doesn't have to be directly against the team you're contending for a spot with. If you're in the wild-card pool, and you lost to anybody else also in the wild-card pool, you are eliminated. So say Pleasanttown (+12.5 tiebreaker), Nicetown (+2.00), Happytown (-0.25), Partytown (+4.25) and Grumpsburg (+6.00), all in different districts, all finished 5-2, and are in consideration for the two wild-card spots. The only two of those who played each other were Nicetown and Grumpsburg in Week 2, with Nicetown winning 21-17. That eliminates Grumpsburg, and the other four now go into the 17-point tiebreaker to see which two get the wild-card (which in this scenario would be Pleasanttown and Partytown). I had kind of been under the impression that the head-to-head would only be considered for the last spot, if those two particular teams had played a non-district game, but no.​

Where does it say this?

 

[KidSilverhair]

Where does it say this?

It's in Appendix A of the post-season manual, specifically Example 9.

Example 9: All 7 districts have an outright District Champion (7-0) and an outright District Runner-Up (6-1). 6 of the 7 districts have a distinct 3rd place team with a record of (5-2). Below is the record of the 6 teams against each other 3rd place team that finished with a (5-2) record:

Team A: 1-0
Team B: 1-1
Team C: 0-1
Team D: 0-0
Team E: 0-0
Team F: 0-0 ​

Both Team B and Team C have a loss against a 3rd place team with a record of (5-2). Not all schools had to have played each other for this criteria to be used (i.e. 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, the 0-1 is eliminated). As a result, those two teams are eliminated from all at-large consideration, and only teams A, D, E, and F will be considered for an at-large spot. The 17-point tie breaker (using plus and minus points of district games divided by the total number of games played within the district) will decide the at large qualifiers. If a tie remains, the alphabetical draw will determine the qualifiers. For 2016 we will start with the letter “J” (J through Z and then A through I).
​

Basically, you determine the pool of possible at-large teams. First priority goes to anybody who tied for a district title. After that, it's the best district records that didn't get the two automatic qualifiers in each district. Once you get that group figured out, you check to see if any of those teams lost to any of the other teams in the pool. If one or more does have a loss, they are eliminated from the pool, and you move on to point differential and the alphabet, if need be.

 

[uimathguy]

It's in Appendix A of the post-season manual, specifically Example 9.

Example 9: All 7 districts have an outright District Champion (7-0) and an outright District Runner-Up (6-1). 6 of the 7 districts have a distinct 3rd place team with a record of (5-2). Below is the record of the 6 teams against each other 3rd place team that finished with a (5-2) record:

Team A: 1-0
Team B: 1-1
Team C: 0-1
Team D: 0-0
Team E: 0-0
Team F: 0-0 ​

Both Team B and Team C have a loss against a 3rd place team with a record of (5-2). Not all schools had to have played each other for this criteria to be used (i.e. 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, the 0-1 is eliminated). As a result, those two teams are eliminated from all at-large consideration, and only teams A, D, E, and F will be considered for an at-large spot. The 17-point tie breaker (using plus and minus points of district games divided by the total number of games played within the district) will decide the at large qualifiers. If a tie remains, the alphabetical draw will determine the qualifiers. For 2016 we will start with the letter “J” (J through Z and then A through I).​

Basically, you determine the pool of possible at-large teams. First priority goes to anybody who tied for a district title. After that, it's the best district records that didn't get the two automatic qualifiers in each district. Once you get that group figured out, you check to see if any of those teams lost to any of the other teams in the pool. If one or more does have a loss, they are eliminated from the pool, and you move on to point differential and the alphabet, if need be.

Thanks, I missed that.