Deep Playoff Dive, 2 Games Left Edition

[KidSilverhair]

All right, finally back from a weekend trip out of state, and almost the first thing I do is start crunching 3A playoff numbers. Okay, I'm kidding ... I did some of it while I was on my trip.

A lot of this was crunched on paper, so I might have missed something, or overlooked a possibility. I take no responsibility for any errors you might find here. (Yeah, they're my errors, but disclaimers are always good, right?) First off, I will run through what needs to happen in each district for teams to make the playoffs. I will follow that up with a post using BC Moore's rankings to finish out the season and see who might actually be playing on October 28.

Onward!

DISTRICT 1

STORM LAKE: Win out and in; win one and need help (like Heelan beating Spirit Lake)
SPIRIT LAKE: Win out and in; win one and need help
SERGEANT BLUFF/LUTON: Win out and in.

Beat Spirit Lake and in unless Storm Lake/Spirit Lake both finish 5-2.
Lose but beat Storm Lake and in unless some combo of Storm Lake/Spirit Lake/Heelan finish 5-2.​

HEELAN: Win out and one of Storm Lake/Spirit Lake/Sergeant Bluff lose out.

OUT: Spencer, Le Mars, Humboldt, Algona​

DISTRICT 2

BOONE: Win one and in (there's a slight chance of a tie if Gilbert wins out and Boone loses to Webster City); if Gilbert loses to Ballard but beats Dallas Center/Grimes, can still get to a tie at 5-2.
WEBSTER CITY: Win out and in; loss plus win over Boone gets to tiebreaker
GILBERT: Win out and in (unless Boone and Webster City both finish 6-1, then tiebreaker). Decent shot at 5-2 if they beat Dallas Center/Grimes.
DALLAS CENTER/GRIMES: Win out and in; at 5-2 must have Boone either win out or lose out.

OUT: Ballard, Iowa Falls/Alden, Greene County, Perry
​

DISTRICT 3

XAVIER: In. Clinch district title with a win.
BENTON: Win one and in.
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK: Win out and Benton lose out.
CHARLES CITY: Win out, Benton lose out.​

OUT: Decorah, South Tama, Vinton-Shellsburg, Independence
​

DISTRICT 4

If any of the four contenders lose both remaining games, they are out.

CLEAR CREEK/AMANA: Win out and in. Win one plus a loss by West Delaware or Marion.
WEST DELAWARE: Win one and in.
DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION: Win out and in. Chance to reach tiebreaker at 5-2.
MARION: Win out and in. Chance for tiebreak at 5-2, but currently last in points.

OUT: Dubuque Wahlert, Center Point/Urbana, Maquoketa, Central DeWitt
​

DISTRICT 5

SOLON: In. Clinches division title with a win.
OSKALOOSA: Beat Washington and in. Lose and need a win over West Burlington and a Washington loss to Fort Madison.
WASHINGTON: Win out and in. Beat Oskaloosa and almost certainly in.

(If Keokuk can get involved in a tie with 4-3 teams, they hold the head-to-head over Washington, so that might mean going to points. Washington has a pretty good lead with that right now.)​

KEOKUK: Win out, need Oskaloosa to lose out and Washington to lose to Fort Madison. Even then points are against them.
WEST BURLINGTON/FAIRFIELD: Next to no chance, but if they win out, Oskaloosa loses out, Washington loses to Fort Madison, and Keokuk wins out, they might get into a points tiebreaker. Which Washington would almost certainly win.

OUT (for certain): Mount Pleasant, Fort Madison​

DISTRICT 6

PELLA: Clinches district title with a win. Potentially could find themselves in a points tiebreaker with North Polk and Carlisle or Norwalk if they lose out, but they'd almost certainly win that.
NORWALK: Beat Carlisle and almost certainly in. Still potential for a tiebreaker if Pella loses out, but would probably get second spot ahead of North Polk.
CARLISLE: Beat Norwalk and probably in. Potential for a tiebreaker if Pella loses out, but would probably get second spot ahead of North Polk.
NORTH POLK: Have to win out, score a ton of points, and hope they can get ahead of Carlisle or Norwalk in the tiebreaker.

OUT: Bondurant-Farrar, Nevada, Grinnell, Knoxville
​

DISTRICT 7

CARROLL: In. Can win district with a win over Creston/OM.
CRESTON/OM: Win and in. Can win district with a win over Carroll. Only out if they lose out and ADM wins out.
ADM: Win out, Creston/OM loses out.

OUT: Glenwood, Harlan, Winterset, Denison-Schleswig, Atlantic

​

 

[KidSilverhair]

And now, a predicted district finish and playoff qualifiers. I used BC Moore's rankings to pick winners of these final two games, instead of using my noggin and general football smarts to make those calls.

DISTRICT 1

Storm Lake 6-1 (8-1)
Sergeant Bluff/Luton 5-2 (7-2) (tiebreaker over Heelan)
Heelan 5-2 (6-3)
Spirit Lake 4-3 (6-3)
Le Mars 4-3 (6-3)
Spencer 3-4 (4-5)
Humboldt 1-6 (2-7)
Algona 0-7 (0-9)
​

DISTRICT 2

Webster City 6-1 (8-1) (tiebreaker over Boone)
Boone 6-1 (7-2)
Gilbert 5-2 (7-2)
Dallas Center/Grimes 5-2 (6-3)
Ballard 3-4 (5-4)
Iowa Falls/Alden 2-5 (4-5)
Greene County 1-6 (1-8)
Perry 0-7 (2-7)

This district could end up quite differently. The Boone/Dallas Center game, the Gilbert/Ballard game and the Greene County/Perry game are all basically tossups according to BC Moore.
​

DISTRICT 3

Xavier 7-0 (9-0)
Benton 6-1 (7-2)
Waverly-Shell Rock 5-2 (6-3)
Decorah 4-3 (5-4)
Charles City 3-4 (3-6)
South Tama 2-5 (3-6)
Vinton-Shellsburg 1-6 (2-7)
Independence 0-7 (0-9)
​

DISTRICT 4

Clear Creek/Amana 6-1 (8-1) (tiebreaker over West Delaware)
West Delaware 6-1 (8-1)
Davenport Assumption 5-2 (6-3)
Dubuque Wahlert 4-3 (5-4)
Marion 4-3 (5-4)
Center Point/Urbana 2-5 (2-7)
Maquoketa 1-6 (1-8)
Central DeWitt 0-7 (1-8)
​

DISTRICT 5

Solon 7-0 (8-1)
Oskaloosa 6-1 (7-2)
Washington 4-3 (6-3)
Keokuk 3-4 (5-4)
Fairfield 3-4 (5-4)
Mount Pleasant 3-4 (4-5)
West Burlington/ND 2-5 (4-5)
Fort Madison 0-7 (0-9)

Again, this week's Oskaloosa-Washington game is rated as a tossup. If Washington wins, and everything else holds, they would take the playoff spot with the tiebreaker over Oskaloosa. Oskaloosa would then go into the at-large pool at 5-2, with a current 10.20 point differential that could put them into an at-large spot.
​

DISTRICT 6

Pella 7-0 (9-0)
Norwalk 6-1 (8-1)
Carlisle 5-2 (5-4)
Bondurant-Farrar 4-3 (5-4)
North Polk 3-4 (4-5)
Nevada 2-5 (3-6)
Grinnell 1-6 (1-8)
Knoxville 0-7 (1-8)
​

DISTRICT 7

Creston/OM 7-0 (9-0)
Carroll 6-1 (8-1)
Glenwood 5-2 (7-2)
Harlan 3-4 (4-5)
ADM 3-4 (3-6)
Winterset 3-4 (3-6)
Denison-Schleswig 1-6 (2-7)
Atlantic 0-7 (1-8)
​

AT-LARGE POOL

These 5-2 district finishers would appear to be eligible for the at-large pool.

Heelan (6-3; 4.8 point differential)
Gilbert (7-2)
Dallas Center/Grimes (6-3; 5.0 point differential)
Waverly-Shell Rock (6-3; 6.4 point differential)
Davenport Assumption (6-3; 9.8 point differential)
Carlisle (5-4)
Glenwood (7-2; 6.0 point differential)

Carlisle would be eliminated, due to their non-district loss to Gilbert. Gilbert is then eliminated due to their projected loss to Dallas Center/Grimes. The two at-larges would then be determined by the points differential tiebreaker; at this point the at-large teams would be Davenport Assumption and Waverly-Shell Rock, but you can see they're fairly close together and things will change over the next two weeks.
​

 

[fmclonefan]

If Gilbert is not in the wildcard pool and Carlisle is (if they lose to Norwalk next week), then Carlisle will have the best point diff. They are currently at 10.2 and should finish with no worse then that as they will probably beat Grinnell by over 17 points this week. So, that would give the 5-4 team the edge in the tie breaker. If Carlisle can beat Norwalk then Norwalk will be the 5-2 team and will have the tiebreaker advantage as they will be above 10 or 11 for sure.

Norwalk would be a tough team to draw as a wildcard!

 

[El_Doce]

Unless its Pella that draws them

 

[fmclonefan]

Yea, I thought about that. Would be wierd if Pella-Norwalk matched up first round. Would be at Pella this time also. Pretty sure I would put my money on Pella. Was at the game on Friday at Norwalk. Norwalk has a ton of players and have lots of size on the line and great skilled players. Pella didn't out size them but they just seem much more physical than Norwalk. It was 19-0 and Pella had probably only run about 12 plays to get that.

Pella also has small numbers this year compared to normal. I doubt they even dress 40 guys. Pella does have several guys that play both ways but they do rotate others in as well, especially on the lines. If they get in a tough 4 quarter game down the line, this may be their Achilles heel. But, they played several guys both ways the last two years as well and that seemed to turn out ok for them.

 

[El_Doce]

Pella's Jr. Class is small in number I think, maybe only 12 guys left. Soph class is big however. Agree on size with line play, No real big boys, however all LBs are 200lb + and move well. Add that to 2 safeties that are 6'5 and I think they are big after the front 4.

 

[FLBP]

Bransfield got hurt and did not finish the game I believe. Someone from Norwalk may have better info but if Bransfield didn't play than I understand the score better. Pella is a good team. They have good players but a lot of them do go both ways. When DCG played them week 2, we played right with them first half. I honestly was impressed on how physical we played them and kinda beat them up but they still found a way in the second half just like most games this season to get the job done in impressive fashion. Pella is a great team and so far they are performing just like the past 2 seasons. Can they 3 peat, I believe they can but may be harder than the last two season but they have to be one of the favorites again. Norwalk is also a very good team. I know their defense was very good last season and they lost so many studs from last years team. Great offense for sure. Gonna be an exciting last few weeks to the season and than see what shapes up. No matter what. There will be some upset people. Gonna be some good teams not make the post season.

 

[StatewidePundit]

STORM LAKE: Win out and in; win one and need help (like Heelan beating Spirit Lake)
SPIRIT LAKE: Win out and in; win one and need help
SERGEANT BLUFF/LUTON: Win out and in.
Beat Spirit Lake and in unless Storm Lake/Spirit Lake both finish 5-2.
Lose but beat Storm Lake and in unless some combo of Storm Lake/Spirit Lake/Heelan finish 5-2.
HEELAN: Win out and one of Storm Lake/Spirit Lake/Sergeant Bluff lose out.

OUT: Spencer, Le Mars, Humboldt, Algona

Storm Lake is in: What a turnaround that has been.
SBL: Just needs to beat a way overrated SL team. Seem to be treading water lately.
SL :Is going to lose out , not a good team has beaten other bad teams whipped by decent teams
Heelan: How are they not in playoffs with all those good players ?

 

[Old Pitcher]

Brady sprained his ankle on Norwalk's 3rd possession, and did not return. Two years ago he missed the Pella game with a concussion. Last year's regular season meeting (0-21) he had a separated left shoulder and was told not to run the ball. He was healthy in the title game loss.

 

[FLBP]

Brady sprained his ankle on Norwalk's 3rd possession, and did not return. Two years ago he missed the Pella game with a concussion. Last year's regular season meeting (0-21) he had a separated left shoulder and was told not to run the ball. He was healthy in the title game loss.

I figured something like that was the case. Brady is a class act. Good Kid.

 

[fmclonefan]

I hope he heals quickly and is able to be full strength by the Carlisle game. Norwalk would have put points on the board with him in there, but it was pretty clear by the time he got hurt that it was going to be difficult for Norwalk to win that game. I'm sure he would love to have another crack at Pella, even more so if he is healthy. Norwalk will be a tough out in the playoffs, that is for sure.

Pella seems to be gaining steam. They seemed to be trying to figure out who they were the first 3 weeks of the season, which is true for most teams. I think they are figuring it out pretty well at this point though.

 

[fmclonefan]

Latest playoff projections from the Cedar Rapids Gazette:

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/week-8-football-playoff-projections-20161011

 

[westside rules]

I hate to beat a dead horse but the new system needs to be a 1 and done.

 

[IOU1]

I hate to beat a dead horse but the new system needs to be a 1 and done.

Not sure I follow...the playoffs themselves are a 1 and done format. There is no double elimination or pool play involved. If you are suggesting that a team eliminates themselves from playoff consideration by simply losing a game, I am going to respectfully and strenuously object with your opinion.

 

[privateer13]

I believe he is suggesting the system not teams be one and done.

 

[El_Doce]

I was reading it as Westside wants this "new" system to be 1 and done. Meaning back to the "old" system or something better. Although I think the "old" system was not good either, both from a recovery perspective and that over 50% of first round games were blow outs. You are going to miss an occasional "should have been in" team, But in reality there will always be a fairly large gap between the top 8 teams and the next 8. So not sure expanding is any better.

 

[westside rules]

Sorry for the confusion and my lack of clarity. I indeed meant that I hope this change is a 1 year experiment. Many have suggested alternatives, all of which need consideration.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

This is the best system IMO.

Positives
- Every week counts - it's competitive
- Kids get to recover during the playoffs
- Coaches get to prepare during the playoffs
- Making the playoffs is an achievement
- More quality playoff games
- We can better project where teams will play first and second round (Joking.. But seriously)

Negatives
- Some teams get left out
- Less kids get to experience the playoffs


Honestly, I don't think those are negatives at all, but I think they might be considered the negatives by the majority. I don't think teams getting left out is a bad thing. It makes kids know what needs to be done in the future to get to the playoffs and it creates some real excitement in these final weeks.

I might just be an old timer with how I view this, but not making the playoffs is up to the team. If the team wants to make it and wants to be good, then they will need to put in the time and effort to succeed.

Look at Washington.. I'm sure if Washington doesn't make it this year they will be devastated that they lost to Keokuk, but I guarantee you that they won't blame anyone except themselves.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

With that said, I'm not opposed to alternatives, as long as they don't take away from the competitive nature. It needs to be survival of the fittest, not half-a$$ football for 9 weeks.

 

[crus8rs]

Waterloo West could be 8-1 and get left out...not the best system.

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/week-8-football-playoff-projections-20161011

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Waterloo West could be 8-1 and get left out...not the best system.

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/week-8-football-playoff-projections-20161011

Waterloo West could also be 9-0 if they take care of business against CR Washington week 9. Which is why this is the best system, IMO... Teams don't get to say, "Oh well, who cares if we win or lose, we make the playoffs anyways."

Also, 4A Waterloo West would be in with the 3A format that we're discussing on this 3A football thread.

 

[El_Doce]

Agree with Iowa, The goal of the entire system is to win a championship. If you can't get out of your district, then chances are you are not winning the title. There will be some good teams not make playoffs, and some poor teams that get in. So.....unless you do this like BBall where everyone gets into the substate there will be some "what if" teams. The worst will be teams that lose out due to the alphabet, but again they put themselves there during the regular season.

 

[KidSilverhair]

In District 4, Davenport Assumption's 33-20 win over Clear Creek/Amana Thursday might have pushed the Clippers out of the playoffs entirely. Assuming wins by CCA over Central De Witt and West Delaware over Maquoketa next week, the Clippers need Marion to beat both West Delaware tonight and Assumption next week to get into a tie for second at 5-2 (Marion would win the district, and CCA would be tied with Assumption & West Delaware in that case, which would go to the points tiebreaker). They would need Marion to lose out to have a chance at an at-large spot; if either Marion or Assumption are in the pool at 5-2, CCA would be eliminated due to their losses to those teams.

Marion just needs to win one of their remaining games to finish in the top two; admittedly, still a tough path against West Delaware on the road and Assumption at home. Assumption will be in if they defeat Marion. West Delaware is almost certainly in if they win over Marion tonight (I really can't see them losing to Maquoketa next week).

The most likely outcome has West Delaware winning out for a 6-1 district record and the district title; if Assumption beats Marion as well the Knights will also be 6-1 but lose the head-to-head tiebreak, and that opens the door for CCA to be in the at-large pool (Marion would be 4-3 in that case). If Marion can defeat Assumption, they would finish 5-2 and win the head-to-head tiebreakers for second over both CCA and Assumption. Assumption would still be eligible for an at-large spot, while CCA would be eliminated.

 

[El_Doce]

At least this system puts some excitement into the end of season.

 

[makelovenotwar]

District 4 is just a tough district. I think IAHSAA is still pissed at the parochial schools moving down the 3A. I get the frustration with Xavier. I don;t get it with Wahlert.
Still, the sad thing is that a couple of pretty good teams in CCA and Marion are probably not going to the playoffs when they would in a normally constructed district. I understand being pissed at the parochial schools, but seems like IAHSAA is throwing out the baby with the bath water.

 

[bigfridaynite]

You might say the playoffs start tonight for a lot of teams

 

[FLBP]

District 4 is just a tough district. I think IAHSAA is still pissed at the parochial schools moving down the 3A. I get the frustration with Xavier. I don;t get it with Wahlert.
Still, the sad thing is that a couple of pretty good teams in CCA and Marion are probably not going to the playoffs when they would in a normally constructed district. I understand being pissed at the parochial schools, but seems like IAHSAA is throwing out the baby with the bath water.

There is going to be a lot of pretty good teams not in the playoff. I personally did not like the new system that we have used recently but I also think there should be a meeting in the middle playoff system. I do not like the every kids gets a trophy crap but I do believe a two loss season is a decent season. There were some upsets last season, it works. Expand the playoffs to 24 teams and make it work. IT is not that hard. The old system was to much to ask for high school kids also, not enough recovery time.

 

[El_Doce]

Is D4 really that good? I would think that WD is down compared to last year's team. Also think the same about Assumption. Both had very strong teams last year. Now they are sharing District lead with potentially Marion? I am thinking that this district is strong with average teams which makes it very competitive. Again, definitely adds some drama going into last games of the season.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Is D4 really that good? I would think that WD is down compared to last year's team. Also think the same about Assumption. Both had very strong teams last year. Now they are sharing District lead with potentially Marion? I am thinking that this district is strong with average teams which makes it very competitive. Again, definitely adds some drama going into last games of the season.

I've seen CCA, Marion, West Delaware and Assumption play, went to the game last night in Davenport, and I agree 100%. Xavier, Pella, Solon and Norwalk would not lose to anyone in D4. I'd throw Carlisle, Washington and maybe Oskaloosa in there as well. Might be a lot of evenly matched teams in the district, but relative to 3A there are much better teams.

Sorry to all of the D4 fans, just calling it like I see it.

 

[IOU1]

I've seen CCA, Marion, West Delaware and Assumption play, went to the game last night in Davenport, and I agree 100%. Xavier, Pella, Solon and Norwalk would not lose to anyone in D4. I'd throw Carlisle, Washington and maybe Oskaloosa in there as well. Might be a lot of evenly matched teams in the district, but relative to 3A there are much better teams.

Sorry to all of the D4 fans, just calling it like I see it.

I'd say mostly the same thing about D3 as well. You want to have a district that would be a knock-down drag out ever Friday? Lump Decorah, WSR and Benton in with CCA, Marion, WD and Assumption. District would be entertaining as heck, but nobody is going to challenge Xavier or the other teams mentioned for the State Crown.