D7 Picks

[fmclonefan]

District 7

Knoxville at Chariton -- D7 game of the week! This one has playoff implications and looks to be a great matchup. Can Chariton stop the Knoxville ground game? Can Knoxville do something to keep Hockensen from catching 20 passes and have 5 TD's? Last year Knoxville wore down Chariton and beat them physically. I think Chariton will hold up better this year. Knoxville has also really struggled with pass defense as well. That combination makes me think the Chargers may take this one, with a confidence level of 50.1%. Chariton 35 Knoxville 31

Newton at Pella ( (ND)) -- Last year Newton had a very good team and got crushed twice by Pella. This year they don't have such a good team and they should get crushed again. Didn't think I'd see the day where a Newton team drops to 0-7 on the year. Pella rolls. Pella 56 Newton 10

Norwalk at Oskaloosa -- Norwalk is trying to gear up for the playoffs. Osky is trying to stay alive at this point. The Norwalk offense should be rolling and will be able to move the ball well on Osky. Norwalk 42 Oskaloosa 14

Saydel at Carlisle -- This one will get ugly. Carlisle loves to run the ball and Saydel has some trouble stopping the run. Bad combination. Got to go with the Wildcats. Carlisle 48 Saydel 7

Playoffs:

Top three spots are still set. Looking ahead, even if Knoxville loses this one to Chariton they would still be the favorites to get the 4th spot if they can beat Oskaloosa. If that happens then they all will finish 2-4 and I think Knoxville would end up winning the points game. Chariton still has Knoxville, Carlisle and Pella. Osky still has Norwalk, Knoxville and Carlisle. Knoxville has Chariton, Osky, and Norwalk so should have closer games. Chariton and Osky both have real chances of being on the wrong end of a couple of blowouts.

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Chariton 34 Knoxville 33 — These two teams seem to be really evenly matched. Both had impressive games last week. Knoxville crushed Saydel (by more than Osky and Chariton did) and Chariton played a tight one at Norwalk. If Chariton does pull it out, the playoff race gets crazy with the three-way tie possibility. I'll play that out a bit below my game predictions

Pella 49 Newton 14 — What is this district's record against non-district teams? Has to be pretty good (partly because the smaller schools play 2A teams but whatever). Dutch win by a lot. They just need to stay healthy because they have the district wrapped up.

Norwalk 49 Osky 12 — The Warriors randomly didn't play as well last week. Like Pella, they are going to be favored big in all their late district games and just need to stay healthy, but I bet they come out hot tonight and put up a lot of points.

Carlisle 40 Saydel 9 — Carlisle running game is gonna get back at it tonight after a down week. Gonna be a tough 3 seed to beat in the playoffs.

Ok, so like fmclonefan I think Chariton squeaks by Knoxville at home and then the Panthers take out Osky at home next week. That means the three schools would be tied. IF that happens, I believe it's point differential in the district with the 35-point ceiling rule, right? If so, that means right now Knoxville is at -27, Osky is at -28 and Chariton is at -1 but with a tougher end of year schedule because they still have Carlisle and Pella after this while the other two have each other next week and then Kville-Norwalk and Osky-Carlisle in the last game.

So now it becomes a game of who can lose by the least in the last two weeks. If Chariton wins today, it will be close, so they'll stay around even, Kville will stay around -30 and Osky will probably drop to -45 or something with the loss against Norwalk. IMO Osky is pretty much out of it if they lose next week. Chariton would be able to stay in the right position with a close loss to Carlisle, but assuming the Kville coaches know this situation, they'd probably put up a couple extra scores against Osky to try and overtake the Chargers the next week.

Playoff predictions:
1. Pella
2. Norwalk
3. Carlisle
4. Knoxville (by maybe 3 or 4 points over Chariton in the tiebreaker)