CR Gazette Final Playoff Projections

[WBBearsFollower]

CLASS 1A

East Bracket

Pleasantville (7-2 overall, 5-2 D5-RU) at Iowa City Regina (7-2 overall, 7-0 D4-CH)

South Winneshiek (6-3 overall, 6-1 D2-RU) at Bellevue (8-1 overall, 6-1 D3-RU)

South Hamilton (8-1 overall, 6-1 D6-RU) at Denver (8-1 overall, 7-0 D2-CH)

Wilton (8-1 overall, 6-1 D4-RU) at West Branch (9-0 overall, 7-0 D3-CH)

West Bracket

Interstate 35 (7-2 overall, 5-2 D5-WC) at West Lyon (9-0 overall, 7-0 D1-CH)

Western Christian (7-2 overall, 6-1 D1-RU) at Avoca AHSTW (9-0 overall, 7-0 D7-CH)

Belmond-Klemme (7-2 overall, 5-2 D2-WC) at Van Meter (9-0 overall, 7-0 D6-CH)

IKM-Manning (7-2 overall, 6-1 D7-RU) at Pella Christian (9-0 overall, 7-0 D5-CH)

 

[WBBearsFollower]

I-35 is going to drive 270 miles in round 1?

Sure.

 

[GoEagles23]

 

[PNation]

Yeah he needed to pull out a map of Iowa in 1A and 3A

 

[nwmsbearcat]

Yeah he needed to pull out a map of Iowa in 1A and 3A

Not to mention, I-35 really has almost no shot at getting a Wild Card.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Not to mention, I-35 really has almost no shot at getting a Wild Card.

More like 100% 'mathematically eliminated' from wildcard contention.

There are 3 teams who will have better 17 point differentials even if they lose by 17 this week.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

More like 100% 'mathematically eliminated' from wildcard contention.

There are 3 teams who will have better 17 point differentials even if they lose by 17 this week.

That's what I thought. Good work!

 

[WBBearsFollower]

That's what I thought. Good work!

I cannot take credit.
A friend sent an email to me after seeing these projections. He had a long, drawn out playoff scenario spreadsheet.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

Just an uneducated guess out west...and still SO many variables with as many as 8 (or more) games across that state that will have a huge impact on district races and the wild cards.

IKM-M @ West Lyon
Western Christian @ AHSTW
Belmond-Klemme vs. South Hamilton (Provided B-K is a 2 seed and don't know who would host.)
Pleasantville @ Van Meter

But like I already said, still A LOT to be determined this Friday night that could have a HUGE impact on Class 1A.

 

[comet_y2k]

More like 100% 'mathematically eliminated' from wildcard contention.

There are 3 teams who will have better 17 point differentials even if they lose by 17 this week.

I dont follow it enough-but is Bellevue in a good spot to be a WC if they would lose to Maq Valley?

 

[nwmsbearcat]

I dont follow it enough-but is Bellevue in a good spot to be a WC if they would lose to Maq Valley?

Bellevue has the most points (1 more point than South Winn) of any team with 1 district loss right now, so they are in the best position to secure a wild card spot.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

New projections from the CR Gazette...

CLASS 1A

East Bracket

Maquoketa Valley (7-2 overall, 5-2 D3-WC) at Iowa City Regina (7-2 overall, 7-0 D4-CH)

South Winneshiek (6-3 overall, 6-1 D2-RU) at Bellevue (8-1 overall, 6-1 D3-RU)

Pleasantville (7-2 overall, 5-2 D5-RU) at Denver (8-1 overall, 7-0 D2-CH)

Wilton (8-1 overall, 6-1 D4-RU) at West Branch (9-0 overall, 7-0 D3-CH)

West Bracket

Belmond-Klemme (7-2 overall, 5-2 D2-WC) at West Lyon (9-0 overall, 7-0 D1-CH)

South Hamilton (8-1 overall, 6-1 D6-RU) at Avoca AHSTW (9-0 overall, 7-0 D7-CH)

Western Christian (7-2 overall, 6-1 D1-RU) at Van Meter (9-0 overall, 7-0 D6-CH)

IKM-Manning (7-2 overall, 6-1 D7-RU) at Pella Christian (9-0 overall, 7-0 D5-CH)

 

[nwmsbearcat]

New projections from the CR Gazette...

CLASS 1A

East Bracket

Maquoketa Valley (7-2 overall, 5-2 D3-WC) at Iowa City Regina (7-2 overall, 7-0 D4-CH)

South Winneshiek (6-3 overall, 6-1 D2-RU) at Bellevue (8-1 overall, 6-1 D3-RU)

Pleasantville (7-2 overall, 5-2 D5-RU) at Denver (8-1 overall, 7-0 D2-CH)

Wilton (8-1 overall, 6-1 D4-RU) at West Branch (9-0 overall, 7-0 D3-CH)

West Bracket

Belmond-Klemme (7-2 overall, 5-2 D2-WC) at West Lyon (9-0 overall, 7-0 D1-CH)

South Hamilton (8-1 overall, 6-1 D6-RU) at Avoca AHSTW (9-0 overall, 7-0 D7-CH)

Western Christian (7-2 overall, 6-1 D1-RU) at Van Meter (9-0 overall, 7-0 D6-CH)

IKM-Manning (7-2 overall, 6-1 D7-RU) at Pella Christian (9-0 overall, 7-0 D5-CH)

This very well could be the 8 teams on the west side of the state...however, the travel for the first round of the west bracket would be a total of 692 miles, while the east bracket totals only 359 miles...almost double the mileage so that doesn't seem realistic right off the top. Now, I realize West Lyon and WC are way up in the NW corner with no one else around them so mileage is definitely going to be more in the west, but if these are the 8 teams out west doesn't this make a little more sense?

IKM-M @ West Lyon
WC @ AHSTW
South Hamilton @ Pella Christian
Belmond-Klemme @ Van Meter
Total = 533

159 miles less of total travel.

 

[PNation]

I'd go with

BK @ West Lyon (it's them or IKM-M and neither is a short trip)
Western Christian @ AHSTW
IKM-M @ Van Meter
South Hamilton @ Pella Christian
Pleasantville @ Iowa City Regina
Wilton @ West Branch
Maquoketa Valley @ Denver
Bellevue vs South Winn

What I like with these matchups is it allows for both #2s with the wildcards in their district to play each other.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

I dont follow it enough-but is Bellevue in a good spot to be a WC if they would lose to Maq Valley?

Bellevue is about a 99.4% lock to be in based on points if they were to lose. They would be at 64 even if they lose by 17+, and that's pretty good.

 

[comet_y2k]

Thanks for the info. Looks like they should win anyway, most everything I've seen tells me they win by about 15-20 but who really knows.

 

[cidhawkeye]

The Gazette doesn't get a can of whoop a** opened on it for being wrong?

 

[WBBearsFollower]

They found the error in their ways and made the change.
That's the difference.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

I'd go with


Pleasantville @ Iowa City Regina
Wilton @ West Branch
Maquoketa Valley @ Denver
Bellevue vs South Winn

What I like with these matchups is it allows for both #2s with the wildcards in their district to play each other.

If that is true in the east, Regina and WB will not play in Round 2.

Based off of 17 point differential:
Regina 1
Denver 2
WB 3

Based off of overall record:
WB 1
Denver 2
Regina 3

Both would have a chance at making it to the Dome, much like what happens in Class 4A with Dowling and Valley. Not to mention, it would be interesting to see if the IHSAA would pair them up at Regina for the 3rd consecutive season. (note: this is NOT a complaint, this is just a statement of interest)

 

[Pinehawk]

The schools are 8 miles apart. Close enough for players to live in one of the towns and play in another.
They should play in Round 2.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

The schools are 8 miles apart. Close enough for players to live in one of the towns and play in another.
They should play in Round 2.

Yes they should...oh but amazingly the question still remains...will the IHSAA actually pair them up before the semifinals. Hmmm.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Yes they should...oh but amazingly the question still remains...will the IHSAA actually pair them up before the semifinals. Hmmm.

they did in 2015 when the teams were ranked #1 and #2 all season. They'll do it again.

WB has to get out of Round 1 to begin with. And I'm worried about that.

 

[rkhemp]

The schools are 8 miles apart. Close enough for players to live in one of the towns and play in another.
They should play in Round 2.

Iowa City is a town? I say the name should change to Iowa Town

 

[cidhawkeye]

They found the error in their ways and made the change.
That's the difference.

Not before you had responded about the team they had wrong. Your response was a little more under control than when the previous mistake was made.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Thanks for showing me the error in MY ways, bub

 

[cidhawkeye]

Thanks for showing me the error in MY ways, bub

Here to help. Just want consistency

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

just curious who you guys think Denver will see if they make it to the quarters. If they do match up west branch and Regina.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Bellevue

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Which makes no sense given WB is undefeated and Denver has 1 loss. Then again, I wouldn't want to play Bellevue again. They can put points up in a hurry. Solid ball club