Class A Playoff Predictions
- Thread starter Kevin7216
- Start date
District 1
West Sioux
AW (champs)
District 2
BG (champs)
SO/RV winner
District 3
SA (champs)
WH
District 4
WV (champs)
EB
Lisbon
District 5
GR (champs)
Hudson
District 6
LS (champs)
Monte
District 7
SA (champs)
Earlham
At large: BGM
West Sioux
AW (champs)
District 2
BG (champs)
SO/RV winner
District 3
SA (champs)
WH
District 4
WV (champs)
EB
Lisbon
District 5
GR (champs)
Hudson
District 6
LS (champs)
Monte
District 7
SA (champs)
Earlham
At large: BGM
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My guess is D1 and D7 will match up. D2 and D3, Hudson and D4, GR
& BGM and D6. But that is just a guess.
& BGM and D6. But that is just a guess.
Their are no sister districts that match up anymore. Because of all playoff games going to Friday nights you will not have mileage restrictions like in the past on Wednesday nights and school the next day. So in this instance you could easily see teams making a 2 hr drive to a game. Alot of big match ups this week in almost all of the districts. D1 has the top 2 teams playing, D4 has Hudson and Belle Plain, D4 has Wapsie Valley and North Linn D 6 has Lynville Sully and Montizuma. All these games have huge implications on their districts. The point system will be interesting as you will see a number of 7 - 2 teams staying home.
I agree on them not matching sister districts but some of them do make sense. Even though mileage is out the window, I think they will still keep them some what close.
District 1 is all up in the air as everyone is beating each other and the top 2 teams play each other this week and could knock each other right out of the playoffs. This district could also get an at large. If Montizuma beats Lynville Sulley then New London could be out. District 4 has Wapsie Valley going to 6-2 North Linn.
The two wildcards are huge and what part of the state they come from because im assuming each wildcard would go to a district champion witch could pit two teams against each other that were both runner ups for another pairing. Hudson if they make it to St Ansger is only 87 miles
New London has to have LS beat Monte by 17 to get in because of the loss to Pekin. There are definately other teams who can get in but need some help to get there. Will be a lot of scoreboard watching Friday.
District 4 will most likely end in a 3 way tie, giving all 3 automatic qualifiers. Where the other wild card comes from will be determined by points. There are teams who will have a 5-2 district record that just don't have enough points.
So basically it looks like their is only one wild card remaining if one comes from district 4. Looking at point differential I don't see how BGM gets in over New London. New London will blow out Winfield Mt Union and their point differential is higher then BGM's. So unless Winfield upsets New London which won't happen I don't see how they aren't the final at large bid.
I wouldnt bet on that as like I said earlier, the state took off travel restrictions this year so you could see teams going 150 miles for games. You may see some teams playing within their own district like last year because of where teams are located.
The two wild cards should end up being Lisbon and new London. New londons points will be higher than any other 5-2 team. District 1 is set if I'm doing my math right. Win or lose Friday Akron will get the runner up on having more points in the 3 way tie, Westwood can't get enough to catch them. In my district 4 it should end up wit a 3 way tie and if wapsie wins by 14 they will be the one seed. Even if wapsie loses and it ls not by the 17 point rule would get one of the wild cards. In district 6 as long as montezuma does not lose by 17 they are in, if they lose by 17 they will tie new London in points and lose the breaker. I think new London will be a wild card with how their point total is.
I tried to run all the playoff scenarios. I am sure I missed something but here it goes.
Playoff hopes for each district:
Making the assumption that BGM and GC have easy opponents and will win by 17 we have them setting the points standard at 55 pts and 51 pts. We will also assume that D4 ends in a 3 way tie and takes the first wild card spot.
D1
WSH- in no matter the result of Fridays game. Champs with a win second with a loss and Westwood win. Wildcard with a loss and westwood loss.
AW- . Champs Can get in with a loss as a wild card if they can avoid a blowout loss and combinations of Hudson and or SO narrow losses or second place with a loss and a Westwood loss.
Westwood- in with a win and an AW loss. They own the tie breaker. Too low in pt to be considered for a wild card.
Woodbury- in with an AW win and a Westwood loss
D2
BG is in and champs no matter the outcome
SO in with a win. They have an extremely long shot of getting in with a loss but they would need to lose by 1 pt have AW win, have Woodbury lose, have Monte win (or lose by less than 17), NL lose or win by less than 9.
Ridgeview in with a win. Not enough points to overcome a loss
D3
SA champs
WH second
GC can get in with a AW win,SO win, Monte loss by less than 17. They would also need BGM to lose or win by less than 13 or if WV loses and a SWV win by less than 17 ( i know this is one of the assumptions).
D4
WV in with a win and champs if it is by 17
EB in with a win could get champs by pts if they max and WV doesn't
Lisbon in with a win
Only EB could survive a loss the others would be out and open up another wild card
NoL could get a wild card if The win by 17 and have AW win, SO win, Monte win or less than 17 loss( they could be tied with BGM but have it by alphabet)
D5
GR champs
Hudson in with a win. A narrow loss would also put them in
BGM in with a 17 pt win and an 8 pt loss by hudson,They could get in with a 17 pt win and a win by AW with a Westwood win, SO win or more that 1 pt loss, Monte win or less that 17 defeat and NOL loss or a less than 17 win.
BP can only get in if they win by 17 and a BGM loss or a win by less than 11. Not enough pts for a wild card
D6
LS is in win or lose
Monte is in with a win. A loss by less than 17 puts them in as second. A loss by 17 will give them the wild card if AW loses by more than 11 or a WSH loss and a Westwood win.
NL needs a win by 17 and to have Monte lose by 17. They can get the wild card if Pekin loses AW wins and Westwood win, and a SO win.
D7
STA champs
Earlham second
SWV can get a wild card if they win by 17 and need a AW win,SO win, Monte loss by less than 17. They would also need BGM to lose or win by less than 13
Playoff hopes for each district:
Making the assumption that BGM and GC have easy opponents and will win by 17 we have them setting the points standard at 55 pts and 51 pts. We will also assume that D4 ends in a 3 way tie and takes the first wild card spot.
D1
WSH- in no matter the result of Fridays game. Champs with a win second with a loss and Westwood win. Wildcard with a loss and westwood loss.
AW- . Champs Can get in with a loss as a wild card if they can avoid a blowout loss and combinations of Hudson and or SO narrow losses or second place with a loss and a Westwood loss.
Westwood- in with a win and an AW loss. They own the tie breaker. Too low in pt to be considered for a wild card.
Woodbury- in with an AW win and a Westwood loss
D2
BG is in and champs no matter the outcome
SO in with a win. They have an extremely long shot of getting in with a loss but they would need to lose by 1 pt have AW win, have Woodbury lose, have Monte win (or lose by less than 17), NL lose or win by less than 9.
Ridgeview in with a win. Not enough points to overcome a loss
D3
SA champs
WH second
GC can get in with a AW win,SO win, Monte loss by less than 17. They would also need BGM to lose or win by less than 13 or if WV loses and a SWV win by less than 17 ( i know this is one of the assumptions).
D4
WV in with a win and champs if it is by 17
EB in with a win could get champs by pts if they max and WV doesn't
Lisbon in with a win
Only EB could survive a loss the others would be out and open up another wild card
NoL could get a wild card if The win by 17 and have AW win, SO win, Monte win or less than 17 loss( they could be tied with BGM but have it by alphabet)
D5
GR champs
Hudson in with a win. A narrow loss would also put them in
BGM in with a 17 pt win and an 8 pt loss by hudson,They could get in with a 17 pt win and a win by AW with a Westwood win, SO win or more that 1 pt loss, Monte win or less that 17 defeat and NOL loss or a less than 17 win.
BP can only get in if they win by 17 and a BGM loss or a win by less than 11. Not enough pts for a wild card
D6
LS is in win or lose
Monte is in with a win. A loss by less than 17 puts them in as second. A loss by 17 will give them the wild card if AW loses by more than 11 or a WSH loss and a Westwood win.
NL needs a win by 17 and to have Monte lose by 17. They can get the wild card if Pekin loses AW wins and Westwood win, and a SO win.
D7
STA champs
Earlham second
SWV can get a wild card if they win by 17 and need a AW win,SO win, Monte loss by less than 17. They would also need BGM to lose or win by less than 13
One of the tie breaking rules for the wild card is head to head competition. If you have lost to anyone in that tie you are taken out of consideration. For instance New London will be taken out of consideration for the wild card if it is tied with Pekin. There are a couple instances where that will apply. There will be quite a few teams tied with a 5-2 record.
so basically what you are saying is D1 has huge implications on the final wildcard. D6 Pekin already has the 17 point win as Danville has forfeited the season
Ya the game most everyone will be watching is the Akron, WSH game. The dominos will fall from that game. The Wapsi, North Linn could also be big because it could open up another wild card.
With your 16 teams privateer this is one way I would project the brackets. Who ends up going West is going to be very interesting.
WEST
Akron VS South O'Brien
St. Albert VS West Sioux
Bishop Garrigan VS West Hancock
Gladbrook VS Earlham
East
Wapise VS BGM
Montezuma VS Lisbon
Eas Buc VS Lynnville-Sully
St. Ansgar VS Hudson
WEST
Akron VS South O'Brien
St. Albert VS West Sioux
Bishop Garrigan VS West Hancock
Gladbrook VS Earlham
East
Wapise VS BGM
Montezuma VS Lisbon
Eas Buc VS Lynnville-Sully
St. Ansgar VS Hudson
MONTEZUMA AND LISBON WILL NOT PLAY EACH OTHER IN FIRST ROUND AS THAT WOULD BE A # 2 VS AT LARGE
Lisbon would have to have both Wapsie and East Buc lose to be the champion, althou they beat Wapsie they lost to EB and the tiebreaker. I'm not 100% sure that other at large will come out of district 1.
Privateer13 your math is wrong in the wapsie situation. They only need to win by 14 and if they do that, them and east buc will have 86 points each. Also are you sure that is how it works with the tie breaker for all the 5-2 teams and the wild card? To me that sounds ridiculous that a team is eliminated because it lost to only one of the say 6 teams tied. I don't see how they can set it up like that
You are right they need to win just by 14 not 17.
As far as the tie breaker, my guess is they wanted to put a premium on the regular season and make every game matter. I don't know the rational for it otherwise. When i first read it i thought it only came into effect if two teams were tied in pts but the way it was explained was it comes
into effect before pts.
As far as the tie breaker, my guess is they wanted to put a premium on the regular season and make every game matter. I don't know the rational for it otherwise. When i first read it i thought it only came into effect if two teams were tied in pts but the way it was explained was it comes
into effect before pts.
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