Class 4A Playoff Scenarios

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,686
295
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www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
Always imitated, never duplicated (because it takes way too much freakin' time), it's the 4A Playoff Scenario Guesser with two games to play!

As always, I make no guarantees as to the accuracy of my figuring, as I can always make mistakes or miss something. There are still plenty of tie scenarios in play - here's the state's method of breaking ties in 3A/4A:
  • A two-way tie for district champion, or for second place, will be determined by head-to-head results.
  • If there's a tie involving three or more teams for district champion, and one team defeated all of the others, that team is district champion and you go back to head-to-head to determine the second-place team.
  • If the teams in the tie for the district title all defeated each other, RPI is used to select the champion, then head-to-head is used to determine the second-place team.
  • In cases where head-to-head can't single out one champion or second-place team, RPI is used.
Since RPI can still change more than we might expect over the next two weeks, I make no guesses involving that, but you are welcome to make your own inferences. Got it? Onward!

(I do hope to put one of these together for Class 3A later this week if I find the time.)

4A-1
SPENCER wins the district with a victory. They are in at least a tie for a playoff spot unless they lose twice, Le Mars wins twice, and either Denison-Schleswig or Webster City wins twice.​
WEBSTER CITY is almost certainly in with a victory over Denison-Schleswig in Week 9 (there are some tie scenarios if Spencer loses twice). They win the district with two wins plus two Spencer losses.​
DENISON-SCHLESWIG is in the playoffs with two wins, winning the district if either Spencer or Webster City loses twice. A win over Webster City in Week 9 almost certainly gets them to at least a tie for a playoff spot (unless Fort Dodge wins twice).​
FORT DODGE is in with two wins plus two Webster City losses. There are some other tie scenarios with two wins.​
LE MARS must win two games, then have Webster City win twice and Denison-Schleswig lose twice (or the reverse, two D-S wins and two Webster City losses). There are a few other tie scenarios.​
STORM LAKE has been eliminated.​
4A-2
The winner of WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK and WESTERN DUBUQUE almost certainly takes the district. A Waverly-Shell Rock win guarantees them the title; a Western Dubuque win gets them the crown unless Mason City wins twice, which creates the possibility of a three-way tie. If Waverly Shell-Rock loses twice and Mason City wins twice, that's the only scenario where the Go-Hawks miss the playoffs.​
WESTERN DUBUQUE is in with a victory over Mason City in Week 9. They earn a spot in a three-way tie even with two losses if Marion wins twice. Two losses plus a Marion loss eliminates Western Dubuque.​
MASON CITY can win the district with two wins plus two Waverly-Shell Rock losses. They're guaranteed a spot with two wins plus two Western Dubuque losses, and get in a three-way tie if Western Dubuque beats Waverly-Shell Rock. They get second with two Western Dubuque losses, unless Marion wins twice, which creates a tie.​
MARION can get themselves in a tie with two wins plus two Western Dubuque losses, but RPI would not be their friend.​
WATERLOO EAST and DECORAH have been eliminated.​
4A-3
LIBERTY wins the district by defeating Burlington. Liberty can win the district even with a loss to Burlington if they defeat Clinton plus a Burlington loss to Fort Madison. The only way they miss at least a tie for a playoff spot is with two losses plus two wins by either North Scott or Fort Madison.​
BURLINGTON wins the district with two wins plus a North Scott loss. They are guaranteed at least a tie with a win plus two Liberty losses and a North Scott loss, or a win over Fort Madison plus two North Scott losses. There are several tie scenarios as well, mostly if both Burlington and North Scott go 2-0 or 1-1 in the last two weeks.​
NORTH SCOTT wins the district with two wins plus two Liberty losses. They are almost certainly in with a win over Fort Madison (unless Burlington wins twice); a loss to Fort Madison means the best they can do is get in some tie scenarios.​
FORT MADISON wins the district with two wins plus two Liberty losses. Two wins guarantees them a playoff spot. There are some tie scenarios with one win along with one win by both North Scott and Burlington.​
CLINTON and MOUNT PLEASANT have been eliminated.​
4A-4
XAVIER wins the district by defeating Newton. They also win the district with a win over Oskaloosa plus a Clear Creek Amana defeat of Newton in Week 9. Xavier is basically in with a win - there is a three-way tie scenario if both Newton and CR Washington win twice. The Saints are also in with two losses plus two Newton wins and a Washington loss, or a Newton loss plus a Clear Creek Amana loss and two losses by Washington. Xavier can only miss at least a tie for the playoffs with two losses plus two Washington wins.​
NEWTON wins the district with two wins plus a Washington loss, or with two Xavier losses, two Washington losses, and a Clear Creek Amana loss. Newton finishes second with a loss to Xavier and a win over Clear Creek Amana plus two Washington losses, or a win over Xavier plus two Washington losses and a loss by Clear Creek Amana, or two Xavier losses plus two Washington wins. Some tie scenarios exist with one win plus two wins by either Pella or Clear Creek Amana.​
CR WASHINGTON wins the district with two wins plus two Xavier losses. In almost all cases, one win plus losses by both Newton and Pella gets Washington into second place. There are some tie scenarios, all of which require two wins by Newton, Pella, or Clear Creek Amana.​
PELLA has a chance to finish second with two wins plus two Newton losses. They can get in a tie with two wins plus a loss by Newton.​
CLEAR CREEK AMANA has a shot at a playoff spot, but they must win twice and have Washington lose twice. A few tie scenarios exist if Xavier loses twice.​
OSKALOOSA has been eliminated.​
4A-5
This is a little bit less complicated with Perry forfeiting their final three games.​
Since they now have an open date on Week 9, CARLISLE is guaranteed a playoff spot except for one scenario, and the win the district with a Norwalk loss. If Norwalk wins twice, Carlisle finishes second with an Indianola loss. If both Norwalk and Indianola win out, there's your tie.​
NORWALK wins the district with two wins plus an Indianola loss. They finish second with a win over Bondurant-Farrar plus an Indianola loss.​
INDIANOLA gets a playoff spot with two wins (if Norwalk wins twice, there's a tie for first). They also earn second place with a win over Bondurant-Farrar plus a Norwalk loss.​
BONDURANT-FARRAR must win twice to reach the playoffs.​
BOONE and (of course) PERRY have been eliminated.​
4A-6
LEWIS CENTRAL is in the playoffs with a win (with one oddball exception). They win the district with a win over Dallas Center-Grimes plus a loss by Winterset. They can still win the district with a loss by defeating Winterset plus a Glenwood win over Dallas Center-Grimes. The exception is a win over Dallas Center-Grimes, a loss to Winterset, and both Winterset and Glenwood winning twice, which creates a tie that Lewis Central probably still wins with RPI. There are some scenarios that result in a playoff tie even with two losses.​
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES wins the district with two wins. They are in the playoffs with a win Week 9 plus two losses by either Glenwood or Winterset (unless Winterset wins twice). They also are in with a win over Lewis Central plus two wins by Glenwood and a loss by Winterset.​
GLENWOOD wins the district with two wins plus two Lewis Central losses. They're guaranteed in with two wins, unless Winterset wins twice and Lewis Central once, which creates a tie. Glenwood can also get in with a win over Dallas Center-Grimes plus a Lewis Central win over Winterset.​
WINTERSET can win the district with two wins plus a loss by either Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes. They take second with two wins plus two wins by either Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes - unless Glenwood wins twice and Dallas Center-Grimes loses twice, which means a tie.​
There are quite a few tie scenarios if Dallas Center-Grimes, Glenwood, and Winterset all finish 1-1​
DES MOINES HOOVER and COUNCIL BLUFFS THOMAS JEFFERSON have been eliminated.​
 
Last edited:
Aug 15, 2022
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Guess who plays Friday night Indianola and bondurant farrar at Bondurant farrar. It's Bondurant Farrar senior.

It depends on the weather if it's raining or drizzling and windy I give Bondurant farrar the advantage but if not and it's clear I give Indianola the advantage.

The only reason I gave Bondurant farrar the advantage in raining/drizzling windy game is they now have two to three backs.
 
Dec 19, 2019
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The biggest thing from here is the opponents record factoring into the RPI. Lots of 4A teams that ate up the weaker competition at the beginning of the year are going to rue the day they did because I see multiple 5-4 teams making it over 6-3 teams because of dismal out of district competition.
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,485
454
83
You should submit this to the Register, they had an article on playoff qualifying scenarios and there were so many mistakes.
 

Break the Rock

Gold Member
Nov 30, 2002
58
16
8
When the dust settles in 2 weeks I'm predicting a 1-16 RPI that will look something like this:

1 Xavier 9-0 District Champ
2 WSR 9-0 District Champ
3 Lewis Central 9-0 District Champ
4 Liberty 8-1 District Champ
5 Spencer 8-1 District Champ
6 Carlisle 8-1 District Champ
7 Indianola 7-2 2nd District
8 North Scott 7-2 2nd District
9 Fort Madison 7-2 At-large
10 Western Dubuque 6-3 2nd District
11 Bondurant 7-2 At-Large
12 Webster City 6-3 2nd District
13 CR Washington 6-3 2nd District
14 Newton 6-3 At-Large
15 Glennwood 6-3 2nd District
16 Norwalk 5-4 At-Large
 

ISUChip

All American
May 29, 2001
17,793
169
63
I see multiple 5-4 teams making it over 6-3 teams because of dismal out of district competition.

With only 4 spots available, it's going to be tough for a 5-4 team to get an at-large spot. There might be 1.

There's also the possibility of the district runners-up in D1 and/or D6 being outside the top 16 -- which would snipe spots from bubble teams.
 

ronsss

Varsity
Nov 8, 2003
2,995
86
48
When the dust settles in 2 weeks I'm predicting a 1-16 RPI that will look something like this:

1 Xavier 9-0 District Champ
2 WSR 9-0 District Champ
3 Lewis Central 9-0 District Champ
4 Liberty 8-1 District Champ
5 Spencer 8-1 District Champ
6 Carlisle 8-1 District Champ
7 Indianola 7-2 2nd District
8 North Scott 7-2 2nd District
9 Fort Madison 7-2 At-large
10 Western Dubuque 6-3 2nd District
11 Bondurant 7-2 At-Large
12 Webster City 6-3 2nd District
13 CR Washington 6-3 2nd District
14 Newton 6-3 At-Large
15 Glennwood 6-3 2nd District
16 Norwalk 5-4 At-Large
4a is loaded with talent this year....some very good teams in 4a, if u dont come to play , u will get beat......
 
Aug 15, 2022
12
1
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When the dust settles in 2 weeks I'm predicting a 1-16 RPI that will look something like this:

1 Xavier 9-0 District Champ
2 WSR 9-0 District Champ
3 Lewis Central 9-0 District Champ
4 Liberty 8-1 District Champ
5 Spencer 8-1 District Champ
6 Carlisle 8-1 District Champ
7 Indianola 7-2 2nd District
8 North Scott 7-2 2nd District
9 Fort Madison 7-2 At-large
10 Western Dubuque 6-3 2nd District
11 Bondurant 7-2 At-Large
12 Webster City 6-3 2nd District
13 CR Washington 6-3 2nd District
14 Newton 6-3 At-Large
15 Glennwood 6-3 2nd District
16 Norwalk 5-4 At-Large
Bondurant farrar beat Indianola tonight. Carlisle differently is district champion
Spencer Lost
 

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