Class 1A Preseason District Champions prediction thread

[BlameIt]

1 - Perhaps the toughest district to pick because there really is no headtopping team. I will go with AHST, but IKM-Manning will be in the discussion

2 - West Lyon. end of discussion
3 - Emmetsburg: its about time the sleeping giant arises
4 - South Winn
5 - North Cedar or WB. Heart says WB, so does my head. WB it is.
6 - Pella Chr....nah. Regina
7 - FDSE
8 - Van Meter


thoughts?

 

[DarkThunder#61]

1. I also think A-H-S-T is right at the top, but OA/BC-IG is dropping down from a tough 2A district and they return enough that they could also be contenders for a district title. A-H-S-T is also in the same boat as West Lyon in that they're moving up a class and a few of the other contenders have faced tougher competition. IKM-Manning should also be back up there. They had a rough transition year in 2013 after dealing with a ton of graduations from their district champion team that went 11-1 in 2012. But they return some talented athletes at the skill position including RB Sam Wegner, as well as 8 of their top 11 tacklers.

2. Who would be a contender to West Lyon? I'm still waiting for an explanation from someone as to why D2 is gonna be one of the strongest/toughest districts. We've already established that one team doesn't make the district.

3. Emmetsburg could win this district just for the fact that there may not be anyone else capable of doing it. Everyone else is either too far away, or lost too much from graduation. Even Emmetsburg took a lot of hits from graduation. They return 4 of their top 11 tacklers and their offense looks like it will consist of heavy doses of Zach Anderson at QB and Greg Wesley at RB/WR. After that it's up to the underclassmen to restore the E'Hawks to their former glory. I think we'll also find out if Saint Ansgar is a reloading program as they lose a ton of starters as well at most of the key positions.

4. South Winn is another runaway favorite. I agree that D-NH has a program right now that's reloading rather than rebuilding, but against the better teams they're gonna feel the losses from graduation. I do expect them to have a lot of entertaining games this year though (unless one team has a breakout and is tougher than anyone expected). I think S-F is still gonna be a step behind. They don't strike me as the kind of program that replaces what they have to replace and gets better. Some schools can. Take Iowa City Regina for example, albeit they're a poor example because they're a 4A program. What appears to be a saving grace, though, for teams I've observed over the years is what they return on defense, and it appears they return enough defensively that they won't drop off too much. And as others mentioned, underclassmen are often an 'X' factor in making any predictions because unless you have ties to those schools or a kid is making big headlines, you just don't know what teams are gonna bring up until they're there.

P.S. This is the district of death, if such a district contains a clear favorite and 2, maybe 3, teams capable of finishing 2nd if things fall into place. I don't know the history of Jesup and MFL (they went a combined 3-15 last year), but they return by far more than any other team in the district. That could mean they're poised for a climb up the ladder, or they could end up like Pocahontas last year....and get worse.

5. I do think West Branch gets back on top this year. Wilton won't drop off as much as some think and I like Alburnett and Bellevue to make a move up, or at least be more competitive this year. Alburnett has to replace their QB and RB, but they return most of their WRs and 8 of their top tacklers on defense, which as I mentioned before can be a boon for a lot of teams. Bellevue went 3-6 last year but returns their top QB and WR and an army of RBs behind their starter last year. They also return at least 6 on defense.

6. Regina should sweep the district. Their game against Xavier is a must-see for that area, but that's OOC. EBF returns at least 7 on defense, but that's their only area of certainty entering 2014. S-K could be tougher this year, at least for everyone else, as they return their top QB and RB and at least 6 on defense. Pella Christian might actually be a pretty tough team next year with what they return. Unfortunately, West Marshall loses too much, though having played in 2A for the past several years could help them some.

8. Van Meter should be the favorite. I think Woodward-Granger could be a contender in that district. Panorama could also be decent if they find their RB.

 

[usfhawk]

Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:


2. Who would be a contender to West Lyon? I'm still waiting for an explanation from someone as to why D2 is gonna be one of the strongest/toughest districts. We've already established that one team doesn't make the district.

A quick look at D2:

HMS:

- 2013 (4-6)
- Lose 8 seniors
- Key Losses: QB Metzler/RB1 Kuehl/RB2 Rozeboom/Top 2 tacklers
- Return: Waechter (Iowa commit)/Simons
- Breakdown: HMS will need playmakers to step up. Will be ok upfront. Waechter and Simons will be studs.

Hinton:

- 2013 (8-3)
- Lose 9 seniors
- Key Losses: QB Johnston/RB1 Sitzmann/OL Hoefling/3 of top 4 tacklers
- Breakdown: Hinton will have alot of athletes and speed. They will be lacking size up front. Hinton will be a sleeper team, which my be a top 10 team by the end of the season. Will battle with West Lyon.

Ridge View:

- 2013 (9-2)
- Lose 12 seniors
- Key Losses: QB Garthoff (Northwestern)/RB1 Wandrey/RB2 Sippel/ Top tackler
- Return: WR1 Richard/WR2 Kofmhal
- Breakdown: Ridge View will have its hands full tying to replace Garthoff who accounted for 73% of Ridge View's offense last fall. I think RV will be a second tier team in D2. Playoff team? Probably. District champ? no

Sibley Ocheyedan:

- 2013 (2-7)
- Lose 8 seniors
- Key Losses: Top 3 rushers/3 of top 4 tacklers
- Return: Wagenaar/Hoppe
- Breakdown: Sibley Ocheyedan will have some decent size upfront, but they will be in need of athletes. Mino will be back at QB, but he needs some guys to step up to run and catch the ball. Will struggle to be a playoff team.

Unity Christian:

- 2013 (1-8)
- Lose 12 seniors
- Key Losses: QB/Top 4 rushers/4 of top 5 tacklers
- Breakdown: Unity struggled last fall and that will be the case again. Unity loses the majority of their stats from 2013. Will need to get some new guys into some new roles.

Western Christian:

- 2013 (5-5)
- Lose 20 seniors
- Key Losses: QB Van Maanen/RB1 Van Sloten/RB2 Fenchel/Top 3 tacklers
- Return Van't Hul
- Breakdown: Western Christian loses alot of seniors and alot of their stats from 2013. Like a couple other teams in D2, they will be looking for alot of new faces to step up in 2014. Will be in a fight for 3rd or 4th playoff spot.

West Lyon:

- 2013 (14-0)
- Lose 15 seniors
- Key Losses: QB Snyder/RB1 Heyer/RB2 Groeneweg/RB3 Fuechtenburger/TE Bouman
- Return: OL Newborg (Iowa)/RB Moser/TE Ter Wee
- Breakdown: West Lyon is coming off a great state championship year in class A. They will be making the transition to class 1A without a great bunch of seniors from last fall. West Lyon will have another good group of seniors and solid underclassmen who all saw alot of playing time last fall. WL will be in a battle with Hinton for the D2 title.


Early Prediction:

1.) West Lyon
2.) Hinton
3.) Western Christian
4.) Ridge View
5.) HMS
6.) Sibley Ocheyedan
7.) Unity Christian

 

[DarkThunder#61]

That's a nice breakdown of D2, and it's interesting to see some of these kids at some of these smaller schools at the 1A level getting recruited by Iowa.

But that still doesn't explain whether or not D2 is one of the top 2 districts in this class....then again maybe it does.

 

[BlameIt]

nm

This post was edited on 10/27 2:16 PM by BlameIt

 

[DarkThunder#61]

Originally posted by BlameIt:

Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:
5. I do think West Branch gets back on top this year. Wilton won't drop off as much as some think and I like Alburnett and Bellevue to make a move up, or at least be more competitive this year. Alburnett has to replace their QB and RB, but they return most of their WRs and 8 of their top tacklers on defense, which as I mentioned before can be a boon for a lot of teams. Bellevue went 3-6 last year but returns their top QB and WR and an army of RBs behind their starter last year. They also return at least 6 on defense.



Losing what they lost, and with the transfer of all-state OL/DL to another school the Beavers are going to be roughing it. Gone is Tyler Hetzler. Gone is Koy Snyder. Gone is all district WR Kaleb Schmidt. I don't need QuikStats to know that is way too much to replace at the 1A level.

Those kids were hammers (wrestling term for good).

Having a kid like Reddick on the OL is a plus. Javin Drake will be the new signal caller in Beaverland. Nice kid, but nowhere near the athlete/passer that Hetzler was. Then again, very few kids are. He was special. Snyder was smallish, but ran like a runaway freight train. Quick feet, quick cuts.

Sooooo....you agree with what I said.

Or am I imagining your prediction below where Wilton is 2nd in the district? [/B]

The sleeper team in D6 could be Wapello. Could be. That'd be a big jump to go from 3-6 to 3rd in the district although that group of teams between Alburnett, North Cedar, Bellevue and Wapello could turn out to be a dogfight for the final two spots and Wapello certainly could wind up in there.

Alburnett is not going to move too far. You are looking at QuikStats for their breakdown.

I don't need stats (insert Tommy Lee Jones "I don't care" gif........just sayin) to know that Alex Phillip was the straw that stirred the drink for the Pirates. Coach Marv Cook praised Phillip on the radio and in the IC PressCitizen after the game. Thumbs high?

With Alburnett, this is where my "more competitive" comment that you ignored factors in. They return at least 8 on defense including 3 of their top 4. Their defense should improve and help to keep them in more games. I think the Alburnett at Wapello game could play a big role in who makes the postseason and who doesn't.

Bellevue appears to be a pass-oriented offense and they return a ton in that category including their QB and top WR, not to mention several more behind him. Coupled with what they return defensively, even though they gave up quite a few points last year, I don't see how they couldn't be more competitive this year. Their biggest issue seems to be that they're very undersized. But that's something that can be made up for, and given their offensive preference, they don't particularly need big hogs up front to be effective. Defensively, that's a different matter. They do return a few solid players at the top though to anchor their D. Ty Oster was 2nd in tackles as a freshman and Tyler Banowetz picked off 4 passes last year.

North Cedar lost everything....except for a wonderful throwing QB in Jayden Johnson. Honestly, he is a solid player. Unfortunately for him, Jacob Hay and Derrick Gray are gone to graduation. People make a big deal out of Noah Sander because he is big. Noah has a big heart, but I hope his footwork improves. He is a mountain of a kid at 6-7, 300. You cannot teach that. Could be a real weapon for JJ on his blindside protection. Andrew Fields was a great OL. Was.

Wapello returns a ton. If they get a serviceable OLine, the Indians will be riding high in the postseason. They'll also have a new QB under center. Holden Brockaway appears to be next in line for Wapello, though he'll be a senior this year, so they'll be in the same predicament next year.

D6 projections

1 WB
2 Wilton
3 Wapello
4 NC
5 Alburnett
6 Bellevue
7 Durant

 

[BlameIt]

Originally posted by BlameIt:

Sooooo....you agree with what I said.

Or am I imagining your prediction below where Wilton is 2nd in the district? [/B]

The sleeper team in D6 could be Wapello. Could be. That'd be a big jump to go from 3-6 to 3rd in the district although that group of teams between Alburnett, North Cedar, Bellevue and Wapello could turn out to be a dogfight for the final two spots and Wapello certainly could wind up in there.

Alburnett is not going to move too far. You are looking at QuikStats for their breakdown.

D6 projections

1 WB
2 Wilton
3 Wapello
4 NC
5 Alburnett
6 Bellevue
7 Durant

Again, I do not need QuikStats to breakdown a large number of these teams.

Why? Look at WB's schedule the past 2 seasons. I've watched these teams. I know what they will or won't have returning.
Not attempting to sound pompous, but it doesn't take QuikStats to make a bold prediction when you have first hand knowledge (and the capability to watch video at the click of a button, at any time, of all 6 teams)

Wilton had a pretty solid JV team. Enough to help them compete for a playoff spot.
Wapello is a SLEEPER. A possible good team. Rollinger was a good QB. He burnt WB 2-3 times in their game last season in Wapello.

Thanks for trying to push me into a corner again, brother.
Much like I would not bust your balls if we were discussing your home district (which I have no idea where you are from).

 

[rkhemp]

Are you still "booking" your top 2 Blameit?

 

[BlameIt]

Originally posted by rkhemp:
Are you still "booking" your top 2 Blameit?

that would be gambling, RH.

Predicting it? yes.

 

[rkhemp]

And I was going to give you a pass on Wilton since they lost their coach and Giese, but I guess you are still high on the Beavers

 

[gdkid2010]

WB in D6 all the way. I also don't need QuickStats to tell me that.

 

[DarkThunder#61]

Originally posted by BlameIt:
Again, I do not need QuikStats to breakdown a large number of these teams. First of all, what does it matter?......Secondly, if you just mean D6 well that's fine that you're familiar with those teams because you've seen them. You obviously are getting information from somewhere though because how else would you know what a team outside of your hometown's would have returning on the lines? Do you write it down after every season? That's still keep track of statistics. That's the only real disadvantage I have using Quikstats, is what teams have for linemen. Otherwise, it's the same but from different sources. You clearly have to look up what other teams return outside of your own district because otherwise you're just guessing and picking popular names........

Why? Look at WB's schedule the past 2 seasons. I've watched these teams. I know what they will or won't have returning. That's still gathering facts...just not through Quikstats. So again....what does it matter?

Not attempting to sound pompous, but it doesn't take QuikStats to make a bold prediction when you have first hand knowledge (and the capability to watch video at the click of a button, at any time, of all 6 teams).....Which is fine, but why do you need to repeatedly tell me that in each post....since you're not trying to sound pompous? I can still make my own predictions and people can still disagree with yours even with your first-hand knowledge.

Wilton had a pretty solid JV team. Enough to help them compete for a playoff spot. So again you don't disagree with what I said about Wilton, basically......even though it sounds like you're trying to in a roundabout way, particularly when you said this: "I don't need QuikStats to know that is way too much to replace at the 1A level."

No, that doesn't come across as pompous at all. [/B]

Wapello is a SLEEPER. A possible good team. Rollinger was a good QB. He burnt WB 2-3 times in their game last season in Wapello.

Thanks for trying to push me into a corner again, brother. I'm just trying to find the safest place in the room.
Much like I would not bust your balls if we were discussing your home district (which I have no idea where you are from). Why, because you'd need Quikstats, or a similar statistical source, to make informed predictions?