Boiling It Down To The Nitty-Gritty

[KidSilverhair]

Honestly, there's something wrong with me. How many different ways can I talk about the 3A playoff field?

Apparently, at least one more way.

(I swear, it's not that I've got time on my hands. I've got about six other things I should be doing right now, but man - I really get involved this time of year. It's fun, right? Right?)

Ten of the 16 playoff spots in Class 3A are taken. The 11th will go to the Norwalk-Carlisle winner. Four more teams can secure spots if they just win, baby, and three of those are pretty good bets. There's essentially three other teams with a reasonable shot at those last two spots.

THE TEN ALREADY IN​

IN AND HOSTING:
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Dallas Center-Grimes
Xavier
Solon
Pella
Harlan

IN AS RUNNER UP
Waverly-Shell Rock
Washington
Glenwood

IN WIN OR LOSE (guaranteed wild card with a loss)
Davenport Assumption

IN WITH A WIN​

The Norwalk-Carlisle winner
Spencer
West Delaware
Marion
Webster City

It's a pretty good bet that Spencer, West Delaware, and likely Webster City will win, wrapping up playoff spots. Carlisle is almost guaranteed another, barring a blowout loss to Norwalk.

NEEDING SOMETHING EXTRA​

Decorah is assured a wild card if they beat Independence by at least 12.
Heelan is in with a win over Spirit Lake PLUS a Spencer loss to Algona; or a big win PLUS two of: an Assumption win over Marion; a Carlisle win; an Oskaloosa loss or close win vs, West Burlington/ND; a Decorah loss or close win.
Oskaloosa is in with a big win PLUS two of: an Assumption win; a Decorah loss or close win; a Heelan loss or close win; a Carlisle win by 3 or more, or a loss by 10 or more.


Boone needs to beat Webster City by two touchdowns, or win PLUS a Ballard loss to Greene County.
Storm Lake needs to beat Sergeant Bluff-Luton PLUS losses by both Spencer and Heelan.
West Delaware can make it with a loss PLUS a Marion win.
Carlisle is in even with a loss as long as it's by 9 points or less PLUS either an Assumption win or a Decorah loss or close win.
Norwalk might make it with a narrow loss (a couple of points), but they'd need all but one of; an Assumption win; a Decorah loss or close win; a less-than-big win by Heelan.

 

[FarmFam]

Great work Silver! Its good to see it several different ways. Just makes me think if the association could find a way to take 24 teams we would have all the deserving teams in and still avoid the blowouts that used to happen with 4th place teams. There are several teams that won't make it that could have made a run or at least competed admirably.

 

[FLBP]

FarmFam, I would almost bet they will increase the teams. I know that is what Coach Heitland has talked about . I doubt they will go back to 36 but they need to increase it and I believe your 24 number is a good number IMO

 

[ISUChip]

FarmFam, I would almost bet they will increase the teams. I know that is what Coach Heitland has talked about . I doubt they will go back to 36 but they need to increase it and I believe your 24 number is a good number IMO

Then you're right back where you were before -- with 5 rounds of playoff games in 4 weeks.

 

[monte2013]

No need to increase the playoffs, if you can't finish in the top 2 in your own division then you will not be winning the state title anyways.

 

[EHS1505]

No need to increase the playoffs, if you can't finish in the top 2 in your own division then you will not be winning the state title anyways.

WAPSIE VALLEY, FAIRBANK 21, HINTON 14 - Final

Hinton finished 3rd in Class A D-1 that year. Yes, I know they didn't WIN the state title, but they played for it and 7 points isn't exactly getting blown out the door.

 

[PNation]

Pella finished 4th in their district in 2009 before making the state title game.

 

[FarmFam]

Glenwood was a wild card last year and very well could have been left out. There are ways to get 24 teams in and still only play once a week.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

You certainly can bring up past instances where 3rd/4th place district finishers have made a run, and I totally get your guys’ point, but to me that doesn’t justify increasing the amount of teams. I prefer making the games count in the regular season and if you can’t finish top two then you’re out (with the exception of a wildcard spot).

If Marion loses by one point Friday and they’re upset about missing the playoffs this year then they can blame themselves for losing to Wahlert. Same goes for any team that’s very close right now and finds out their season is over Friday night.

To me it should be up to the teams to qualify, not up to the state to make it 4 teams so they can. This is just my opinion on this matter. I’m not saying my opinion is the right answer, it’s just how I feel about it.

 

[FLBP]

In my honest opinion. I believe you can easily raise it to 20 teams and those additional 4 teams are plenty deserving. 24 can be done as well. Just my opinion. Believe me. When your're in the top two, you've earned your spot. DCG was tied with a lot of other wild card teams last year and I feel them and a handful of others were deserving of a playoff spot. 20-24 teams is doable.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

I like the idea of 24 teams making it.

 

[ronsss]

interesting.....some teams to get in- complex number of options

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Tonight we get to clear up District 4!

 

[FLBP]

Should be an interesting week of football

 

[La_Fleur]

Is the state doing a reveal show like they did last year or are they releasing the pairings late into the night like they did previous years?

 

[FarmFam]

There will not be a reveal show and pairings are to be announced early, early Saturday morning according to the association.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Assumption beats Marion, final score 49-21. Worst case scenario here is a loss by West Delaware (to Maquoketa, not likely) and a win by Wahlert (over Center Point-Urbana) - that makes Assumption the district champion and throws West Delaware/Marion/Wahlert into a three-way tie for the runner up spot. West Delaware wins that tiebreaker by points unless they lose to Maquoketa by 17+ and Wahlert beats CPU by 16 or more ... so even that scenario gives the runner up spot to West Delaware. Marion would be knocked out of the wild card pool due to their loss to Wahlert, and Wahlert's best possible tiebreaker point total would be 51, which wouldn't really get them close to wild card contention.

(Now the other odd thing that could maybe, possibly, remotely happen are losses by both West Delaware and Wahlert ... that drops Wahlert out of the tie for second, leaving just Marion and West Delaware, and Marion actually takes the runner up spot then by head-to-head results over WD. West Delaware actually goes into the wild card pool at that point, with about the same tiebreaker points situation as Carlisle or Decorah.)

If West Delaware beats Maquoketa, they win the district, with Assumption the runner up. Again, if Wahlert wins, that means Marion wouldn't even get to a tiebreaker scenario for a wild card ... and neither Marion nor Wahlert has any realistic points chance anyway.

So West Delaware is almost assured one of the open playoff spots remaining (barring a horrendous blowout loss to winless Maquoketa coupled with a blowout win by Wahlert, or a Wahlert loss), giving us 11 (practically) assured spots:

SBL
DC-G
XAVIER
SOLON
PELLA
HARLAN
W-SR
WEST DELAWARE
ASSUMPTION
WASHINGTON
GLENWOOD

NORWALK-CARLISLE winner takes the 12th spot.
Wins by SPENCER and WEBSTER CITY would take the 13th and 14th spot.

So again, two spots are up for grabs between DECORAH, OSKALOOSA, the CARLISLE-NORWALK loser, and HEELAN, with BOONE and STORM LAKE also on life support.

 

[bigfridaynite]

I really enjoy reading everybody's input to the playoff picture. I'm confused but it's interesting to say the least.i glad so many teams (kids) are playing so many meaningful games still in regular season.

 

[crus8rs]

I think Decorah is a lock, with as many points as they already have. They will be tough to catch. Think it comes down to 3 teams for the 2nd spot. If Heelan can win by 15 or more Oskaloosa cant catch them. Carlisle- Norwalk game has big implications.

 

[EHS1505]

If Heelan wins by 17+, Carlisle needs to win by 2. As Heelan's margin of victory decreases, Carlisle's margin of victory needs to increase. Social media/this forum/news sites will be viewed constantly at Carlisle and Spirit Lake tonight I'm guessing. Good luck to everyone involved!

 

[crus8rs]

If Heelan wins by 17+, Carlisle needs to win by 2. As Heelan's margin of victory decreases, Carlisle's margin of victory needs to increase. Social media/this forum/news sites will be viewed constantly at Carlisle and Spirit Lake tonight I'm guessing. Good luck to everyone involved!

Actually the only need to win by one, The margin is bascially 18 points in some shape or form. Its one because if they tie Heelan gets the tiebreaker. alpha backwards starting at D.
If Heelan can win by 15 Oskaloosa is out, They would then need Carlisle to win by 3 or more.

 

[cruhawk]

If you're a Heelan person, root for Heelan, Carlisle (who plays N-walk at home), and even Algona. If Algona beats Spencer at home (certainly possible), this all becomes moot as far as Heelan is concerned.

 

[Drewolson24]

Actually the only need to win by one, The margin is bascially 18 points in some shape or form. Its one because if they tie Heelan gets the tiebreaker. alpha backwards starting at D.
If Heelan can win by 15 Oskaloosa is out, They would then need Carlisle to win by 3 or more.

So they don't have to win by 17 for wild card consideration?

 

[Drewolson24]

Algona upsets Spencer 31-24 in double OT. Heelan wins 8-3.

 

[EHS1505]

Congrats Heelan and congrats Luke... he actually predicted Heelan as the runner-up, which I felt was their least likely avenue to the playoffs...