BCMoore Rankings: 10/25

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Comments are welcome.




R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Waukon 2A-3 ( 8- 1) 190.02 1L 142.12 ( 34) 42.33 ( 6) 4.89 ( 1)
2 Carroll Kuemper 2A-8 ( 9- 0) 188.97 9W 140.10 ( 40) 45.67 ( 2) 6.33 ( 3)
3 Sioux Center 2A-1 ( 7- 2) 186.70 5W 158.27 ( 2) 34.11 ( 11) 8.56 ( 5)
4 Albia 2A-6 ( 9- 0) 184.16 9W 139.04 ( 44) 46.11 ( 1) 9.67 ( 7)
5 Boyden-Hull-R Valley 2A-1 ( 8- 1) 181.30 6W 153.91 ( 7) 33.78 ( 13) 8.22 ( 4)
6 New Hampton 2A-3 ( 9- 0) 179.99 9W 146.50 ( 17) 34.11 ( 12) 5.56 ( 2)
7 Spirit Lake 2A-2 ( 8- 1) 176.90 4W 146.67 ( 16) 40.67 ( 7) 10.33 ( 8)
8 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 2A-1 ( 6- 3) 170.81 2L 155.85 ( 4) 30.89 ( 18) 13.44 ( 12)
9 Bondurant-Farrar 2A-6 ( 7- 2) 168.07 4W 143.79 ( 24) 43.67 ( 3) 19.67 ( 23)
10 Dyersville Beckman 2A-4 ( 7- 2) 167.30 6W 139.50 ( 43) 43.33 ( 4) 16.00 ( 14)
11 West Marshall 2A-7 ( 8- 1) 165.06 1L 136.42 ( 48) 42.44 ( 5) 13.00 ( 10)
12 Gilbert 2A-7 ( 6- 3) 161.25 1W 144.62 ( 21) 32.00 ( 15) 18.78 ( 19)
13 Garner GHV 2A-2 ( 7- 2) 158.16 2W 138.91 ( 45) 29.33 ( 19) 9.22 ( 6)
14 Wellman Mid-Prairie 2A-5 ( 7- 2) 157.28 2W 141.83 ( 35) 33.56 ( 14) 12.67 ( 9)
15 Alleman North Polk 2A-7 ( 8- 1) 155.59 4W 139.54 ( 41) 31.89 ( 16) 18.89 ( 20)
16 Hampton-Dumont 2A-3 ( 6- 3) 154.86 1W 145.70 ( 19) 25.67 ( 28) 14.78 ( 13)

 

[ORSKY1]

The Mepo ranking is just ridiculous and a 5 point spread vs PCM...there is something definitely wrong with your system. They just demolished L-M and get no love.

 

[bcmoore87]

The good thing is that this is all testable.

What do you think the spread will be?

 

[PNation]

How is Waukon ahead of New Hampton?

 

[bcmoore87]

Computer thinks New Hampton upset Waukon.

 

[SEPAlumni]

These Mepo lovers really enjoyed BC Moore last year, now they fall off the computer radar and people flip, BC, love the system and it tends to be on the money, based on what I watch, Mepo did not cover 4x this year based on BC Moore, so he gave them love, but they did not cover. District Rankings show 2A-6 @ #20 and 2a_5 @ #28

#6 Non District Included
7 3A
Gilbert
West Marshall
North Polk
No 1A or A

#5
1 3A
1 A
and a 1A, though that was Regina

Schedule favors #6, but as others say let the playoffs begin!

 

[ORSKY1]

I truly believe that is where the bias is when evaluating Mepo. They don't look to shut out teams or rub there faces in it. They pull their starters when the game is in hand and let the reserves play. It's a great concept, kids who are non-starters get experience against other teams first team and the program gets to always build for the future. Example Mepo was listed as a 6+ point favorite over L-M, when they went up 35-0 they played reserves the rest of the way and won by 15. So they beat the spread by 8+. The computer simply sees the game as a win and covered with some to spare. This game wasn't close, but the computer predicted it would be because Mepo coaching has a different purpose.

As to last year, they were the best team all year but that wasn't reflected in the ratings. In fact during the playoffs, they declined in the ratings during week 1 and 2, falling to #6 during Playoff week 2. They lost the title game narrowly with the backup QB who is the starter this year. Starting QB went to KState on full ride. Title game would not have been close if he played.

Endpoint, system does not account for coaches/teams who don't run up the score. It's not that I don't think the BCMoore system is good, it is, it just has a flaw when it comes to covering the spread and value determination for coaches who are building programs.

This post was edited on 10/28 1:14 PM by ORSKY1

This post was edited on 10/28 1:15 PM by ORSKY1

 

[MepoDawg#]

Mepo was hands down the best team last year and would have beat Beckman and Spirit Lake by 3+ td's if Ertz is healthy. Their defense still almost won it for them. They get punished for playing in a weak division and not running scores. But like I've said before they'll take care of business in the playoffs, which is all that matters.

 

[bcmoore87]

ORSKY1

I like your presentation. You make a compelling case that the computer is under-rating Mediapolis.

 

[SEPAlumni]

Last year they might have beaten a lot of bigger schools, so this year if there is a bias, your thoughts, then stop every week saying no respect, like you said it will all play out, and more than likely in an explosive game at Albia

 

[RoundMound1]

Actually, it's not coaching per se that gets Mepo it's undervalued ranking. It's that there reserves aren't that good. Last year the coaches did the same thing, however, last year's reserves (now many of this year's starters) were able to carry the mail. Is this a sign that Mepo weakens after this year?

 

[SPOONER]

Oridon'tlly posted by bcmoore87:
ORSKY1

I like your presentation. You make a compelling case that the computer is under-rating Mediapolis.

You don't think other teams sub out with big leads?

 

[Iron Doc]

BCMoore has laid out in these forums in detail exactly how his program works (i.e. the algorithm used). It makes sense, based on the Statistics courses I had 1,000,000 years ago at Iowa Normal School in Cedar Falls.

Humble Suggestion: If someone doesn't like how BCMoore's program works, consider writing your own algorithm, convert it into a program, and post it on here. Just an idea.

 

[leesboy]

MepoDawg# posted on 10/28/2013...

Mepo was hands down the best team last year
and would have beat Beckman and Spirit Lake by 3+ td's if Ertz is
healthy. Their defense still almost won it for them. They get punished
for playing in a weak division and not running scores. But like I've
said before they'll take care of business in the playoffs, which is all
that matters.




Keep in mind last year Spirit Lake beat the #1 ranked team 3 games in a row last year. To say that Mepo was "hands down" the best team in the state last year is very questionable. If they play Spirit Lake with Ertz, and Spirit Lake has a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, one interception, and 4 lost fumbles like they did in last years game, Mepo might have won. Foster had a great game for Mepo last year. I don't think you hang that loss on him.

If you get to the championship game this year,against Kuemper, well good luck with that.

 

[ORSKY1]

To All, I am simply making comments about the possible bias BC has already acknowledged may be present. I like his system and believe it to be a good predictor. I am simply trying to account for the variability in ranking for Mediapolis this year and last. It may not be possible, but I wonder if entering a half time score variable would tighten up this issue. Probably to labor intensive, but trying to offer solutions, not just whining like so many others.

Leesboy, if Spirit Lake beat the #1 team 3 games in a row last year, maybe the bias thing is real.

IronDoc, BC asks for comments. That is why I comment. You may have missed last weeks question re: BC stated he believes there is a bias against teams that cover a spread, even a large one.

Spooner, I do think some other teams sub out. Do you think that means there isn't a possible bias?

RoundMound, I do think Mepo may have declining talent in the lower classes. Getting them additional reps in the games this year makes even more sense in that regard.

SEPAlumni, I have no idea what you are saying.

 

[Y2KG21]

LeesBoy is right on. MepoDog, SL gave you 7 pts on block punt and turned it over 4 times and still won. Wasn't Spirit Lakes best game last year, not even close. IMHO Rock Valley was hands down the best team I saw Spirit Lake play last year. However, does it really matter about ifs and all as the state championship trophy for 2012 sits in SL trophy case!

 

[MepoDawg#]

Mediapolis threw 3 interceptions. With Ertz in that wouldn't have happened, I'll give one but not 3. The blocked punt has nothing to do with Ertz not playing neither does what their defense did the whole game. If you can't see that with Ertz Mepo was the best then you obviously didn't see them play with him healthy. Could SL have won with Ertz playing? Sure but I doubt it. Heck he beat Beckman on one leg. Doesn't matter SL won but were lucky that Ertz didn't play. No disrespect to them as they earned it.

 

[Y2KG21]

I saw video of him. He looked about as good as the RV kid. That kid is at South Dakota St. Will be interesting to see how their paths go in college. Ertz faced some pretty awful Defenses last year. would have loved to see him played against SL. SL faced a Regina QB the year before who hadn't thrown a pick all year and threw two in state title game. Your speculating that Ertz would have been lights out in title game since he was when he faced D's that we're no competition for him. Hard to say how an 18yr old kid will play under pressure. I am done with this as this whole topic is stupid....arguing over a computer ranking that means nothing. If you want to see your team ranked high go buy the Des Moines Register.

 

[Iron Doc]

ORSKY: That's OK. At my advanced age and feebleness, i miss a lot of things! (As a matter of fact i DID miss that discussion as I usually am on on the class A or Rasslin' forums.) Stay thirsty, my friends!