BCMoore Rankings: 10/17

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Comments are welcome.


R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Pella 3A-7 ( 8- 0) 200.06 8W 151.62 ( 23) 46.50 ( 1) 7.50 ( 1)
2 Carlisle 3A-7 ( 6- 2) 178.60 2W 155.30 ( 8) 38.12 ( 3) 17.00 ( 16)
3 Sioux City Heelan 3A-1 ( 7- 1) 174.91 7W 153.70 ( 12) 36.25 ( 5) 15.38 ( 9)
4 Carroll 3A-2 ( 7- 1) 172.73 1W 148.68 ( 33) 36.88 ( 4) 12.00 ( 5)
5 Gilbert 3A-6 ( 6- 2) 170.24 2W 150.94 ( 25) 34.00 ( 8) 13.88 ( 7)
6 CR Xavier 3A-4 ( 5- 3) 169.30 1L 159.71 ( 2) 27.75 ( 18) 9.88 ( 2)
7 West Delaware 3A-3 ( 7- 1) 167.05 1L 146.85 ( 41) 35.62 ( 7) 11.25 ( 4)
8 Solon 3A-4 ( 7- 1) 167.03 5W 151.98 ( 21) 32.88 ( 10) 16.75 ( 15)
9 Waverly-Shell Rock 3A-3 ( 6- 2) 166.17 2W 151.33 ( 24) 28.88 ( 16) 13.38 ( 6)
10 Dallas Center-Grimes 3A-8 ( 7- 1) 165.97 6W 158.05 ( 4) 27.38 ( 19) 16.25 ( 12)
11 Bondurant-Farrar 3A-6 ( 5- 3) 165.28 1W 152.99 ( 16) 28.88 ( 17) 19.00 ( 22)
12 Humboldt 3A-2 ( 7- 1) 165.17 4W 146.44 ( 42) 31.88 ( 12) 14.12 ( 8)
13 Sergeant Bluff-Luton 3A-1 ( 6- 2) 164.68 3W 144.85 ( 48) 42.50 ( 2) 21.50 ( 25)
14 Huxley Ballard 3A-6 ( 6- 2) 162.25 2W 153.12 ( 15) 33.88 ( 9) 22.00 ( 27)
15 Clear Creek-Amana 3A-5 ( 7- 1) 161.56 7W 139.81 ( 52) 31.12 ( 13) 10.25 ( 3)
16 Norwalk 3A-7 ( 4- 4) 160.31 1L 151.81 ( 22) 29.38 ( 15) 18.25 ( 19)

 

[KidSilverhair]

I'm just curious - knowing that Xavier has two defending state champions on their schedule as well as Solon ... which team out their has the number 1 ranked schedule in 3A? I can believe Xavier's is number 2, but I just wonder what grades out as tougher.

 

[bcmoore87]

http://bcmoorerankings.com/2014/10/3a-7-playoff-picture/




0. Playoff criteria

http://www.iahsaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014_Football_PostSeason_Manual.pdf

pages 2-3






1. Predictions:


1.1 Ballard-Grinell:

Ballard by 8.45 over Grinnell, 0.75437 probability
Grinnell wins by 1-11 points: 0.19775 probabilty
Grinnell wins by 12+ points: 0.047878 probabilty


1.2 Gilbert:
Gilbert by 35.54 over Benton, 0.99810 probabilty
Gilbert has a 0.99357 probabilty of a 5-point win (or more)
Gilbert has a 0.96682 probabilty of a 13-point win (or more)

1.3 Newton:
Newton by 26.24 over Nevada, 0.98372 probability
Newton has a 0.85959 probabilty of a 13-point win (or more)



2. Scenarios:

Note: Scenarios below explore 98.1% of possible outcomes. Other wild scenarios do exist.

Scenario 1: 74.068%
Scenario 2: 19.328%
Scenario 3: 4.701%
-------------------
Total: 98.097%



2.1 Scenario 1:

probability: 0.74068

------------
Ballard win, Grinnell loss: 0.75437
Gilbert win: 0.99810
Newton win: 0.98372
------------


1 Ballard (5-1) 32 to 44
2 Bondurant-Farrar (4-2) 42
3 Gilbert (4-2) 27 to 39
4 Newton (4-2) -02 to 10
5 Grinnell (3-3) -16 to -04

1 Ballard: least losses (I,1)
2 B-F: beat Gilbert and Newton (II,a)
3 Gilbert: beat Newton (II, a)
4 Newton: Remaining 4-2 team (II)


2.2 Scenario 2:

probability: 0.19328

------------
Grinnell beats Ballard by 1-11 points: 0.19775
Gilbert wins by 5+: 0.99357
Newton wins: 0.98372
------------


1 Bondurant-Farrar (4-2) 42
2 Gilbert (4-2) 31 to 39
3 Ballard (4-2) 20 to 30
4 Grinnell (4-2) 09 to 19
5 Newton (4-2) -2 to 10


1 B-F: points (II, b)
2 Gilbert: points (II, b)
3 Ballard: points (II, b)
4 Newton: head-to-head (V,1)


2.3 Scenario 3:

probability: 0.04701

------------
Grinnell beat Ballard by 12+ points: 0.047878 probability
Gilbert wins: 0.99810
Newton wins: 0.98372
------------


1 Bondurant-Farrar (4-2) 42
2 Gilbert (4-2) 27 to 39
3 Grinnell (4-2) 20 to 21
4 Ballard (4-2) 18 to 19
5 Newton (4-2) -2 to 10


1 B-F: points (II, b)
2 Gilbert: points (II, b)
3 Grinnell: points (II, b)
4 Newton: head-to-head (V,1)


Edit 1: fixed small error
Edit 2: added disclaimer, not all scenarios are explored



This post was edited on 10/18 11:07 AM by bcmoore87

This post was edited on 10/18 11:37 AM by bcmoore87

 

[fmclonefan]

Nicely done bcmoore. Appreciate you laying it out like that.

 

[fmclonefan]

BC, I don't see the full week 8 rankings yet on your website, are they up yet? It's a sad commentary on my life that I look forward to pulling those up on Saturday mornings. I blame you.

 

[bcmoore87]

Sorry I forgot to update the index.html file.

High school football is awesome; nothing to apologize for!

 

[bcmoore87]

> toughest schedule in 3A



Computer thinks it is Crestwood:



http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2014/week8/TeamSchedules/Cresco%20Crestwood.html



Opponents, to date: 43- 21.

All opponents are in the top half of 3A or top 12 of 2A.






Edit: fixed formatting
This post was edited on 10/18 11:46 AM by bcmoore87