BCMoore Rankings: 10/10

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Comments are welcome.


R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Pella 3A-7 ( 7- 0) 194.91 7W 162.17 ( 3) 41.86 ( 1) 7.71 ( 1)
2 CR Xavier 3A-4 ( 5- 2) 181.58 1W 161.77 ( 4) 30.71 ( 13) 8.29 ( 3)
3 Carlisle 3A-7 ( 5- 2) 180.99 1W 159.61 ( 7) 36.71 ( 4) 17.43 ( 18)
4 West Delaware 3A-3 ( 7- 0) 179.90 7W 150.04 ( 40) 40.71 ( 3) 11.43 ( 4)
5 Sioux City Heelan 3A-1 ( 6- 1) 177.41 6W 160.31 ( 5) 32.57 ( 9) 17.57 ( 19)
6 Waverly-Shell Rock 3A-3 ( 5- 2) 171.90 1W 158.49 ( 14) 26.57 ( 18) 14.14 ( 8)
7 Clear Creek-Amana 3A-5 ( 6- 1) 171.22 6W 144.30 ( 52) 31.14 ( 11) 7.71 ( 2)
8 Carroll 3A-2 ( 6- 1) 171.11 1L 154.61 ( 24) 36.14 ( 5) 13.71 ( 6)
9 Gilbert 3A-6 ( 5- 2) 171.05 1W 154.91 ( 21) 36.00 ( 6) 15.86 ( 12)
10 Newton 3A-6 ( 5- 2) 170.28 1L 158.87 ( 11) 30.29 ( 14) 24.57 ( 35)
11 Sergeant Bluff-Luton 3A-1 ( 5- 2) 168.92 2W 147.68 ( 44) 41.29 ( 2) 19.14 ( 24)
12 Norwalk 3A-7 ( 4- 3) 168.23 3W 154.59 ( 25) 30.14 ( 15) 16.86 ( 15)
13 Humboldt 3A-2 ( 6- 1) 167.85 3W 149.57 ( 42) 32.43 ( 10) 15.14 ( 9)
14 Solon 3A-4 ( 6- 1) 167.72 4W 156.33 ( 17) 29.71 ( 16) 15.43 ( 10)
15 Dallas Center-Grimes 3A-8 ( 6- 1) 165.65 5W 158.71 ( 13) 26.29 ( 20) 16.57 ( 14)
16 Western Dubuque 3A-4 ( 5- 2) 165.58 3W 159.02 ( 10) 17.71 ( 41) 12.29 ( 5)

 

[gg2224]

BC -

I'm curious - can any meaningful inferences be made by aggregating the MOD score for each district? For example, for a given class, is the district with the highest average MOD the 'best' district, top to bottom, in the state? Or does that sample statement I just made fundamentally misrepresent what the MOD score actually means?

I'm just interested in learning more about your methods and how to best interprete the results.

My apologies if I'm asking you to reprise comments you've made in earlier posts. I know you've been doing this for a while.

I appreciate your efforts and good work.

Thanks -

 

[Vroom_C14]

I still think you need to have an "original" prediction column - from the beginning of the year and then we can see how the systsem changes.

 

[bcmoore87]

Mod - unbiased linear estimates of team strength. Subtract one team's mod number from another team's mod number to get an unbiased estimate of the game-margin for two teams on a neutral field

Yes, averaging all mod scores of teams in a district will give you an unbiased measure of district strength.

 

[bcmoore87]

> I still think you need to have an "original" prediction column - from the beginning of the year and then we can see how the system changes.

That can be done manually by looking a team's season report in the various weeks of outputs on bcmoorerankings.com[/URL]. It is an interesting idea.

 

[gg2224]

Thanks for the clarification BC.

Another quick question:

If I was interested in evaluating the relative strength of high school programs over time, could I use the average of the MOD over a period (say 10 years) to compare the success of programs within a given class. For example, if I compared the 10 year MOD average (year end value) of all the programs within a class, would that give me an unbiased ranking of the programs over the time period?

 

[bcmoore87]

It think it would generally work for a team that is in the 3A-A pool over then past 10 years. Need to be cautious of teams that have moved between 4A-3A and A-8. These pools of teams are not always connected.

http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2001-2010/

This report has the correct connections: all teams are connected.