BCMoore Rankings: 10/07

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: iahsaa.org, 2016/10/08 07:30
3. Comments are welcome.

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Boyden-Hull-R Valley  2A-1 ( 6- 1) 178.16  5W 142.50 (  5)  43.71 (  3)  12.86 (  8)
    2  LaPorte City Union    2A-4 ( 7- 0) 177.28  7W 127.97 ( 36)  48.14 (  1)   4.14 (  1)
    3  North Fayette Valley  2A-4 ( 7- 0) 166.37  7W 128.43 ( 35)  34.43 (  7)   5.57 (  2)
    4  Dike-New Hartford     2A-3 ( 5- 2) 163.52  5W 138.77 ( 15)  34.00 (  8)  10.00 (  4)
    5  Prairie City-Monroe   2A-6 ( 6- 1) 161.36  6W 124.26 ( 44)  43.14 (  4)   8.57 (  3)
    6  Carroll Kuemper       2A-7 ( 6- 1) 155.52  5W 133.90 ( 25)  33.71 ( 10)  12.00 (  6)
    7  New Hampton           2A-2 ( 6- 1) 155.07  1W 132.67 ( 28)  32.57 ( 12)  12.43 (  7)
    8  South Cent Calhoun    2A-7 ( 5- 2) 154.88  1W 140.08 ( 12)  38.29 (  5)  22.29 ( 25)
    9  Waukon                2A-4 ( 5- 2) 154.65  1L 137.19 ( 16)  32.71 ( 11)  14.29 (  9)
   10  Central Lyon CL-G-LR  2A-1 ( 6- 1) 151.59  6W 140.81 ( 10)  29.57 ( 17)  19.29 ( 17)
   11  Southeast Valley      2A-7 ( 5- 2) 151.21  4W 128.63 ( 34)  33.86 (  9)  18.14 ( 13)
   12  Williamsburg          2A-5 ( 6- 1) 146.97  6W 117.77 ( 53)  37.57 (  6)  10.29 (  5)
   13  Roland-Story          2A-3 ( 5- 2) 145.00  1L 134.10 ( 24)  29.43 ( 18)  16.29 ( 11)
   14  Cascade               2A-4 ( 5- 2) 144.77  3W 129.75 ( 32)  31.57 ( 13)  17.14 ( 12)
   15  Cresco Crestwood      2A-2 ( 5- 2) 143.55  5W 136.44 ( 19)  28.43 ( 19)  20.86 ( 20)
   16  Mount Vernon          2A-5 ( 5- 2) 143.00  5W 120.42 ( 47)  47.43 (  2)  18.57 ( 14)

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Not too many tightly forecasted games looking ahead to Week 8. The top two appear to be...

#2 Union vs. #3 NFV - Union favored by 10-points.
#17 New Hampton vs. #X GHV - New Hampton favored by 17-points.

 

[Spook 78]

district 4 and 7 are looking pretty good this year

 

[jen44]

Not too many tightly forecasted games looking ahead to Week 8. The top two appear to be...

#2 Union vs. #3 NFV - Union favored by 10-points.
#17 New Hampton vs. #X GHV - New Hampton favored by 17-points.

How does D4 have such weak schedule ranks?

 

[UnionFootballFan]

How does D4 have such weak schedule ranks?

You still have Union vs NFV, Union vs Cascade, NFV vs Waukon over the last 2-weeks. I think that will help drive SOS rankings up for those three, while Waukon's SOS is already strong at 16th.

Union's two non-district games were against 3A schools - 35-0 over Marion who is having a great season and just beat a ranked 3A team in CCA, then Vinton 50-0 who is a weaker 3A school.

 

[bcmoore87]

agree with UnionFootballFan -- schedule strength is calculated after team strengths are discovered, and is based on games played to date (not the full season schedule)

 

[UnionFootballFan]

agree with UnionFootballFan -- schedule strength is calculated after team strengths are discovered, and is based on games played to date (not the full season schedule)

Brent - One good call out that another poster made was how forfeits are treated. For example, this past week Columbus forfeited to NFV, so the score was recorded as 17-0. However, had that game been played, it very likely would have been a 50-point+ game.

Question - With forfeits, would it be more accurate to use your own "projected point differential" rather than the standard 17-point figure? Maybe even a different approach based on the reason for forfeit. Example: A forfeit due to attrition likely would have been a 50+point game, whereas a forfeit due to an infraction is less likely to have been a 50-point game.

Why this would help...
NFV appears to have underperformed while Columbus appears to have overperformed, making the spread/predictions for this coming week appear off.

 

[Red87]

As far as schedule strength is concerned, remember: all of D4 has to play Oelwein, Columbus, and Monticello. As strong as D4 is at the top (with 4 legit teams and a good 5th team), they are that weak relatively at the bottom.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

As far as schedule strength is concerned, remember: all of D4 has to play Oelwein, Columbus, and Monticello. As strong as D4 is at the top (with 4 legit teams and a good 5th team), they are that weak relatively at the bottom.

Columbus and Oelwein are valid weaker teams at the bottom. I believe Monticello was 2-0 non district - weaker in this district because of how tough it is.

 

[RoundMound1]

Columbus and Oelwein are valid weaker teams at the bottom. I believe Monticello was 2-0 non district - weaker in this district because of how tough it is.

Gotta disagree there. They were 2-0, but against two of the worst teams in 2A. Monticello is weak in any 2A district except maybe D6.

That said, I think every district except 1 and 2 have at least 3 bad teams in it (or 7 in D6). The fact that there is a good chance 3 teams make it out of that district is sickening and shows the lack of forward thinking in the structure of the playoffs with 2 at-large bids.

It's just slightly less sickening that 3 will make it out of D7. I don't care how highly SCC and SE Valley are rated by the computer, they are not anywhere near the Top 10 teams in the state.

Maybe there will be a little justice in the world and NFV will beat Union this week and fall to Waukon next forcing a 3-way tie and ensuring 3 of the best teams in the state make the playoffs.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Gotta disagree there. They were 2-0, but against two of the worst teams in 2A. Monticello is weak in any 2A district except maybe D6.

That said, I think every district except 1 and 2 have at least 3 bad teams in it (or 7 in D6). The fact that there is a good chance 3 teams make it out of that district is sickening and shows the lack of forward thinking in the structure of the playoffs with 2 at-large bids.

It's just slightly less sickening that 3 will make it out of D7. I don't care how highly SCC and SE Valley are rated by the computer, they are not anywhere near the Top 10 teams in the state.

Maybe there will be a little justice in the world and NFV will beat Union this week and fall to Waukon next forcing a 3-way tie and ensuring 3 of the best teams in the state make the playoffs.

Agree. My point (poorly made) was not that Monticello is a great team, just that their losses came as a result of district play since they were 2-0 outside of district. Thus the impact to BCM SOS rankings for D4's top teams isn't driven by them. The greater impact is that the best teams haven't played each other yet - NFV vs. Union, Waukon vs. NFV., Union vs. Cascade. SOS will go up over the next two weeks.

 

[Highmark2424]

Gotta disagree there. They were 2-0, but against two of the worst teams in 2A. Monticello is weak in any 2A district except maybe D6.

That said, I think every district except 1 and 2 have at least 3 bad teams in it (or 7 in D6). The fact that there is a good chance 3 teams make it out of that district is sickening and shows the lack of forward thinking in the structure of the playoffs with 2 at-large bids.

It's just slightly less sickening that 3 will make it out of D7. I don't care how highly SCC and SE Valley are rated by the computer, they are not anywhere near the Top 10 teams in the state.

Maybe there will be a little justice in the world and NFV will beat Union this week and fall to Waukon next forcing a 3-way tie and ensuring 3 of the best teams in the state make the playoffs.

I wish the state would have considered going to more classes when it went to 2 automatic qualifiers per district. Instead of 7 districts have 5 per class and more classes. I know its not always the case but plenty of time the larger schools dominate the classes. Look historically at 2a. Most of the top teams are in the top of the enrollment. 2a from top to bottom is around 100 student difference in the 3 measured classes. Doesn't seem much on the surface but the largest 2A schools are 50% larger than the bottom. Not nearly as bad as 4a but very significant none the less. We all know how just a few very talented players can make all the difference in how good a team is.

Look at this year. Union, NFV, Waukon, Mt. Vernon, Williamsburg all some of the largest schools in 2A.