BCMoore Rankings: 10/03

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Comments are welcome.


R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 South Winneshiek 1A-4 ( 6- 0) 183.29 6W 143.78 ( 10) 42.67 ( 3) 8.67 ( 4)
2 West Branch 1A-5 ( 6- 0) 180.48 6W 139.66 ( 16) 44.83 ( 1) 8.50 ( 3)
3 Iowa City Regina 1A-6 ( 5- 1) 176.12 5W 134.21 ( 34) 42.33 ( 4) 12.50 ( 6)
4 IKM-Manning 1A-1 ( 6- 0) 175.75 6W 132.22 ( 40) 40.83 ( 5) 7.17 ( 2)
5 Fort Dodge St Edmond 1A-7 ( 6- 0) 174.40 6W 143.64 ( 11) 40.83 ( 6) 9.83 ( 5)
6 Inwood West Lyon 1A-2 ( 5- 1) 167.51 5W 144.23 ( 9) 32.67 ( 11) 12.67 ( 7)
7 South Cent Calhoun 1A-7 ( 4- 2) 164.73 1W 151.04 ( 1) 26.67 ( 20) 14.00 ( 10)
8 Ogden 1A-7 ( 6- 0) 161.34 6W 138.02 ( 20) 43.17 ( 2) 18.50 ( 20)
9 Stanwood North Cedar 1A-5 ( 5- 1) 160.28 2W 149.88 ( 2) 35.33 ( 8) 23.17 ( 30)
10 Saint Ansgar 1A-3 ( 6- 0) 159.42 6W 133.16 ( 37) 35.00 ( 9) 4.33 ( 1)
11 Bellevue 1A-5 ( 4- 2) 157.16 2L 138.06 ( 19) 31.67 ( 13) 15.00 ( 12)
12 Dike-New Hartford 1A-4 ( 5- 1) 156.87 4W 137.02 ( 25) 32.50 ( 12) 13.83 ( 9)
13 Manson NW Webster 1A-7 ( 3- 3) 152.22 1L 148.18 ( 3) 23.00 ( 32) 18.00 ( 18)
14 Madrid 1A-7 ( 4- 2) 151.35 1L 145.60 ( 4) 33.50 ( 10) 28.00 ( 45)
15 SumnerFredericksburg 1A-4 ( 4- 2) 149.11 1W 134.56 ( 33) 29.17 ( 15) 18.33 ( 19)
16 Western Christian 1A-2 ( 3- 3) 147.96 1W 145.27 ( 6) 21.50 ( 36) 19.17 ( 22)

 

[cyard31]

LOL

 

[cidhawkeye]

I agree how is South Central Calhoun that high?

 

[Pinehawk]

Hard to take these very seriously based on offense and defense scoring figures.
The last two games Regina lead at halftime, 52-0 and 49-0. They could have scored as many points as they wanted to.
The points they gave up were by the freshman defense at the very end of the game.
But, these rankings can't differentiate between a team playing their starters the whole game, or just a half.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by Pinehawk:
Hard to take these very seriously based on offense and defense scoring figures.
The last two games Regina lead at halftime, 52-0 and 49-0. They could have scored as many points as they wanted to.
The points they gave up were by the freshman defense at the very end of the game.
But, these rankings can't differentiate between a team playing their starters the whole game, or just a half.

Sample size....The two teams in front of Regina have played harder schedules to this point and have scored more points and given up fewer. It's just simple unbiased math now not looking at the names on the jerseys. By the end of the season with more games in it wouldn't be shocking to see Regina ahead of either one with one or two losses. Regina's SOS dropped significantly the last two weeks playing the sisters of the poor and a relatively weak district in general isn't going to do them any favors in this type of ranking system. The games against Solon and Xavier will help keep their SOS above the Mendoza line though. Any type of computer system also probably isn't going to recognize pulling of starters.
This post was edited on 10/6 3:45 PM by CP84

 

[Pinehawk]

It's math, but it isn't able to look at the whole picture. I suppose a more accurate representation might be offense and defense rankings based on 1st string playing time, but that would be too difficult to track.
Regina hasn't played a weak schedule. The last two teams they crushed came into the game with winning records. And, no other 1A team has played a schedule with ranked teams of the class and caliber that Regina has with Solon and Cascade.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by Pinehawk:
It's math, but it isn't able to look at the whole picture. I suppose a more accurate representation might be offense and defense rankings based on 1st string playing time, but that would be too difficult to track.
Regina hasn't played a weak schedule. The last two teams they crushed came into the game with winning records. And, no other 1A team has played a schedule with ranked teams of the class and caliber that Regina has with Solon and Cascade. South Winn beat the 6th ranked 2A team. Cascade is 17th.

The last two teams came in with winning records because they played bottom feeders. Columbus Junction's wins came against Waco (1-5), Wapello (1-5) and West Marshall (0-6). CJ didn't even blow any of those teams out.

Highland's wins came against Columbus Junction, Iowa Valley (2-4) and West Marshall (0-6).

Somebody has to win those games but having a winning record doesn't mean anything there.

Regina also beat mediocre to bad Eddyville and Sigourney teams.

You're right that Solon is good competition and having a close game with them is most likely helping their standings more than beating these other bottom feeders.

Here is where the computer has all their opponents ranked currently:

Regina: Solon (#11 3A), Cascade WD (#17 2A), Eddyville (#46), Sigourney (#35), Highland (#41), Columbus J (#49)

WB: Lisbon (#14 A), West Liberty (#47 2A), West Burlington ND (#40 2A), Bellevue (#11), Stanwood (#9), Durant (#34)

SW: Waukon (#19 2A), Wapsie (#24 A), Monona (#45), New Hampton (#6 2A), Sumner (#15), Jesup (#28)

SW's SOS is far better than Regina's. West Branch's isn't significantly better but having 2 of the 3 bottom feeders they've played be 2A teams isn't as bad as beating a bunch of 40th ranked 1A teams. You may argue that I highlighted Lisbon as a quality win since they are down a class but they are still a top 15 team in their class and of their 3 losses, 2 have come to top 10 1A teams and the third to an undefeated A team. WB beat them badly (42-0) while #9 Stanwood only beat them 27-12. Lisbon would likely be a top 25 team up a class.





This post was edited on 10/6 11:20 PM by CP84

 

[DarkThunder#61]

Originally posted by Pinehawk:
It's math, but it isn't able to look at the whole picture. I suppose a more accurate representation might be offense and defense rankings based on 1st string playing time, but that would be too difficult to track.
Regina hasn't played a weak schedule. The last two teams they crushed came into the game with winning records. And, no other 1A team has played a schedule with ranked teams of the class and caliber that Regina has with Solon and Cascade.

Would most 1A teams be able to schedule several teams of those and Xavier's caliber for their non-district games?

I'm sure, though, that you recall how Regina was in the same class as Solon and Cascade for a time, so there's familiarity. It's also kinda funny how it worked out that Regina didn't finally surpass Solon in terms of program success and talent until after they were in different classes. Guess that lower-class underdog mentality was all the Regals really needed to get over the hump.........



Btw, somewhat off-topic, but I just wanted to make a reference here showing how programs have changed over the past few years in terms of enrollment. Regina won it's first title in the streak in 2010. Here's some of the teams in Class 2A that year and where they are now:

Regina (champions)- 1A
Sigourney-Keota- 1A
West Marshall- 1A
Western Christian- 1A
(these are 4 of the top 5 in BCMoore's 2A rankings from that year fwiw............................)
South Central Calhoun- 1A
Pella Christian- 1A
St. Edmond- 1A
Sumner-Fredericksburg- 1A
OA-BC-IG- 1A
South Winneshiek- 1A
MFL-MarMac-1A
Durant- 1A
Wilton- 1A
Jesup- 1A
Eddyville-Blakesburg-Fremont- 1A
Columbus Junction- 1A
Missouri Valley- 1A
MVAO- A*
Colfax-Mingo- A*

That's 19 of the 64 2A teams from 2010 now down a class, or two. Of course all classes have changed numbers since then with 1A-3A now being a more uniformed 56 total teams. Just three teams from this list are ranked in the current Class 1A top 10...and coincidentally they are the top 3 teams. (though South Central Calhoun is also currently 11th)

 

[Pinehawk]

@CP84, IowaPreps has Cascade ranked #4 in 2A and Regina beat them 38-14.

 

[CP84]

2 different ranking systems. One is subjective and one is objective. I'm not saying either one is more accurate at this point. If you asked me my opinion I would have Regina #1 but I'm not arguing with the logic behind this. Regardless of whether either system has Cascade at #4 or #17 I'm still counting it as a quality win. The problem is they only have 2 opponents so far that could be considered better than bad and it won't improve next week. If they go out and beat Xavier or at least play them very close I would expect to see Regina's SOS improve greatly. In the interim it will be hard to catch SW if they go out and pound another quality opponent in Dike this week.



This post was edited on 10/6 11:50 PM by CP84

 

[cidhawkeye]

Didn't surpass Solon until they changed classes or James Morris graduated, wonder what the bigger factor was. It was finally good to get Solon to move up so Regina could win 2A and beat the 3A champions pretty soundly. As far as the poll goes I believe one year Regina ended the year #2. And anybody who thinks their district isn't bad is mistaken, and if JV is any indicator it won't get better. I watched a JV team down 62-0 with 9 minutes left take 3 knees and punt and have the game called with 6 minutes left, never saw it before, hope to never see it again.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by cidhawkeye:
As far as the poll goes I believe one year Regina ended the year #2. .

That is true, in 2012 it had E-Berg finish as the #1 even though they lost in the semis. Prior to blowing up in the semis, Eberg didn't really have any close games and blew out a lot of good ones. They beat SE (10-2) 28-0, IKM (11-1) 55-7, South O'Brien (10-2) 51-0, Rock Valley (11-1) 34-14 and Spencer (7-4) 46-21.

Regina snuck by a good West Branch team (8-3) in the first game 15-13 and didn't blowout Dike or Maquoketa Valley the same way Eberg did to IKM, SE or SO.

In the semi-final game against St. Albert, Eberg outgained them in total yards 282-148 but had 2 critical fumbles and several other mistakes that led to easy points and killed a drive at the 1 yard line. That's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Mistakes are part of the game and Eberg shot themselves in the foot all day.

The computer isn't going to subjectively look when the loss occurred like humans do. Humans at the end of the season can create a subjective decision that rewards and punishes teams depending on when the losses/close calls occurred and regardless of season scores will give the #1 ranking to the team that finished 1st. That's the pros and cons of a computer poll. Fortunately for Regina it doesn't matter where a computer ranks them so long as they win the games that matter.





This post was edited on 10/7 9:47 AM by CP84

 

[DarkThunder#61]

Originally posted by cidhawkeye:
Didn't surpass Solon until they changed classes or James Morris graduated, wonder what the bigger factor was.

I did also say talent.

 

[maxstabs13]

Originally posted by Pinehawk:
Hard to take these very seriously based on offense and defense scoring figures.
The last two games Regina lead at halftime, 52-0 and 49-0. They could have scored as many points as they wanted to.
The points they gave up were by the freshman defense at the very end of the game.
But, these rankings can't differentiate between a team playing their starters the whole game, or just a half.

Similar to South Winn...
Wapsie Valley was 28-7 ended 56-21
MFL MarMac was 38-0 ended 44-0
Sumner Fred was 32-0 ended 44-0
Jesup last week was 60-0 at half ended 60-12

I venture to guess West Branch, IKM, FDSE, and SA games were similar for the most part.

 

[maxstabs13]

Originally posted by cidhawkeye:
Didn't surpass Solon until they changed classes or James Morris graduated, wonder what the bigger factor was. It was finally good to get Solon to move up so Regina could win 2A and beat the 3A champions pretty soundly. As far as the poll goes I believe one year Regina ended the year #2. And anybody who thinks their district isn't bad is mistaken, and if JV is any indicator it won't get better. I watched a JV team down 62-0 with 9 minutes left take 3 knees and punt and have the game called with 6 minutes left, never saw it before, hope to never see it again.

Morris was the big name on that Solon team, but you have to remember they lost lineman that played college ball. Loveless was a WR and is playing pro baseball. Sleeper brothers went to Iowa and ISU for football. Those Solon teams were more than just Morris during that three year stretch. That school sent kids everywhere during that time. Wentzien, Lesan, Bergman, Day, Weeks, Schulista, and so on... Basketball, Baseball, and Football they had athletes everywhere. I didn't follow track or soccer but I can imagine some came out of those sports also.

 

[maxstabs13]

Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:

Originally posted by Pinehawk:
It's math, but it isn't able to look at the whole picture. I suppose a more accurate representation might be offense and defense rankings based on 1st string playing time, but that would be too difficult to track.
Regina hasn't played a weak schedule. The last two teams they crushed came into the game with winning records. And, no other 1A team has played a schedule with ranked teams of the class and caliber that Regina has with Solon and Cascade.

Would most 1A teams be able to schedule several teams of those and Xavier's caliber for their non-district games?

I'm sure, though, that you recall how Regina was in the same class as Solon and Cascade for a time, so there's familiarity. It's also kinda funny how it worked out that Regina didn't finally surpass Solon in terms of program success and talent until after they were in different classes. Guess that lower-class underdog mentality was all the Regals really needed to get over the hump.........



Btw, somewhat off-topic, but I just wanted to make a reference here showing how programs have changed over the past few years in terms of enrollment. Regina won it's first title in the streak in 2010. Here's some of the teams in Class 2A that year and where they are now:

Regina (champions)- 1A
Sigourney-Keota- 1A
West Marshall- 1A
Western Christian- 1A
(these are 4 of the top 5 in BCMoore's 2A rankings from that year fwiw............................)
South Central Calhoun- 1A
Pella Christian- 1A
St. Edmond- 1A
Sumner-Fredericksburg- 1A
OA-BC-IG- 1A
South Winneshiek- 1A
MFL-MarMac-1A
Durant- 1A
Wilton- 1A
Jesup- 1A
Eddyville-Blakesburg-Fremont- 1A
Columbus Junction- 1A
Missouri Valley- 1A
MVAO- A*
Colfax-Mingo- A*

That's 19 of the 64 2A teams from 2010 now down a class, or two. Of course all classes have changed numbers since then with 1A-3A now being a more uniformed 56 total teams. Just three teams from this list are ranked in the current Class 1A top 10...and coincidentally they are the top 3 teams. (though South Central Calhoun is also currently 11th)

4A cut down on teams moving 4-5 teams down to 3A. Then 8 were cut from 3A which in essentially push a total of 12-13 teams to 2A. 2A cuts 8 more moving 20-21 teams down to 1A. Some schools consolidated such as North Fayette to NFV but Valley was already Class A which makes no difference to 1A. I would get 3-4 schools may have consolidated making it 17-18 schools forced down to 1A. So that kind of makes sense that so many are down when you consider some Class A schools likely joined which probably pushed them up to 2A size.

 

[BlameIt]

Originally posted by maxstabs13:
I venture to guess West Branch, IKM, FDSE, and SA games were similar for the most part.

26-13 at half, 53-13 final

 

[cidhawkeye]

Solon was more than Morris, great players but he was the star. Imagine if Morris, Ashton and Gannon had stayed at Regina, the run would be even more impressive.

 

[cyard31]

CID ??? were those 3 recruited away from RHS? I have not heard of it going the other way.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Probably forced to leave to keep the BEDS number down