BCMoore Rankings: 09/25

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: iahsaa.org, 2015/09/26 06:00
3. Comments are welcome.

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Iowa City Regina      1A-6 ( 5- 0) 196.13  5W 145.52 ( 20)  49.00 (  1)   9.80 (  5)
    2  Dike-New Hartford     1A-4 ( 5- 0) 190.08  5W 166.71 (  1)  33.60 ( 14)  10.00 (  6)
    3  Underwood             1A-1 ( 5- 0) 189.81  5W 138.85 ( 37)  48.60 (  2)   9.20 (  4)
    4  Hinton                1A-2 ( 5- 0) 181.23  5W 141.48 ( 32)  44.20 (  4)   9.20 (  3)
    5  West Branch           1A-5 ( 5- 0) 175.42  5W 141.25 ( 33)  38.80 (  9)   9.00 (  2)
    6  South Winneshiek      1A-4 ( 4- 1) 171.42  4W 151.26 ( 10)  29.60 ( 17)  16.40 ( 15)
    7  Van Meter             1A-8 ( 4- 1) 169.58  4W 137.24 ( 40)  38.60 ( 10)  14.20 (  9)
    8  Madrid                1A-7 ( 5- 0) 165.58  5W 130.26 ( 51)  46.00 (  3)  17.80 ( 19)
    9  Avoca AHSTW           1A-1 ( 4- 1) 165.26  4W 142.40 ( 30)  44.20 (  5)  15.20 ( 12)
   10  South Cent Calhoun    1A-7 ( 4- 1) 163.14  4W 144.15 ( 24)  40.20 (  8)  19.60 ( 22)
   11  Alburnett             1A-5 ( 5- 0) 161.64  5W 140.50 ( 34)  36.20 ( 13)  14.80 ( 11)
   12  Western Christian     1A-2 ( 3- 2) 160.94  1L 146.43 ( 16)  37.60 ( 12)  18.20 ( 20)
   13  Guttenberg CR         1A-4 ( 3- 2) 160.86  1W 146.38 ( 17)  19.00 ( 36)  14.60 ( 10)
   14  Saint Ansgar          1A-3 ( 4- 1) 160.53  3W 133.01 ( 47)  38.20 ( 11)   5.80 (  1)
   15  Hudson                1A-4 ( 4- 1) 159.77  1L 148.86 ( 12)  27.20 ( 22)  19.00 ( 21)
   16  Panora Panorama       1A-8 ( 5- 0) 159.69  5W 125.94 ( 54)  44.00 (  6)  14.00 (  8)

 

[WBBearsFollower]

and order is restored. Although its quite funny how the #1 team doesn't lose but drops 2 spots. #ComputerHumor

 

[bcmoore87]

Every week is a new analysis. This week's analysis does not directly depend on last week's analysis (although they do share a lot of common scores).

> Although its quite funny how the #1 team doesn't lose but drops 2 spots.

My opinion: This statement really has a historical bias feel to it.

Examples:

Would you say that the preseason 2015 rankings have to have IC Regina #1 because they won the 2014 championship?

What if you had a 4-0 team that won its 5th game. However, all of its past opponents lost their games by 40+ points when they were predicted to win by 20+ points. What would you think then?

 

[TigerHawkTackle]

I'm curious that the computer dropped undefeated Madrid behind Van Meter. Madrid already beat VM by two TDs

 

[bcmoore87]

It looks like the computer may be overestimating Van Meter based on the 09/04 and 09/11 games versus Earlham and Ogden.

 

[Pinehawk]

What if you had a 4-0 team that won its 5th game. However, all of its past opponents lost their games by 40+ points when they were predicted to win by 20+ points. What would you think then?

Then I'd say the computer isn't very good at predictions.

 

[bcmoore87]

> Then I'd say the computer isn't very good at predictions.

(smile)

In any case the consequence of the new scores would be that the linear-regresion model would move the team strength down to match the new scores.

 

[ghost80]

SSDY.....totally reactionary based solely on a very restricted number of data points from an external source which may or may not be correct.

At least it is good to see that each year more people are saying, "The emperor is really naked" as opposed to the sheep who in the past have said. "Isn't the emperor's new suit beautiful?".

That said I see no problems with this weeks rankings. Regina is #1 and to be honest the other teams aren't really going to matter again this year. The view for them will be the same again this year.