BCMoore Rankings: 01/14

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Scores/schedules are current as of 2016/01/16 10:00, iahsaa.org data.
3. Comments are welcome.


4A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Dubuque Senior         MVC ( 9- 1) 127.90  6W 109.93 (  9)  63.00 ( 14)  46.40 (  6)
    2  Iowa City West         MVC ( 8- 1) 126.13  3W 102.39 ( 37)  76.56 (  1)  50.56 ( 13)
    3  Bettendorf             MAC ( 9- 2) 122.96  5W 107.70 ( 20)  58.45 ( 26)  45.55 (  5)
    4  Cedar Falls            MVC ( 7- 3) 122.30  1L 109.36 ( 12)  66.60 (  8)  53.80 ( 20)
    5  WDM Valley            CIML ( 9- 3) 122.27  2W 111.01 (  6)  61.83 ( 20)  49.83 ( 11)
    6  Cedar Rapids Kennedy   MVC ( 8- 1) 121.23  2W 110.47 (  8)  65.56 ( 10)  53.33 ( 19)
    7  Waukee                CIML ( 9- 2) 119.87  5W 108.79 ( 15)  61.91 ( 19)  49.64 ( 10)
    8  Eldridge North Scott   MAC ( 8- 3) 119.85  1W 113.38 (  3)  58.73 ( 24)  51.91 ( 14)
    9  Johnston              CIML ( 8- 3) 119.25  4W 106.20 ( 25)  66.64 (  7)  54.09 ( 21)
   10  Ames                  CIML ( 7- 4) 118.78  1W 108.93 ( 14)  52.00 ( 36)  42.09 (  2)
   11  Sioux City East        MRC (10- 0) 118.31 10W  99.39 ( 45)  72.80 (  2)  56.30 ( 27)
   12  Dubuque Hempstead      MVC ( 6- 3) 118.12  2W 109.41 ( 11)  62.89 ( 16)  50.44 ( 12)
   13  WDM Dowling           CIML ( 8- 3) 117.60  2W 107.59 ( 21)  58.09 ( 27)  46.91 (  7)
   14  Des Moines Hoover     CIML ( 8- 3) 117.47  6W 108.35 ( 17)  49.45 ( 40)  39.73 (  1)
   15  Davenport Central      MAC ( 7- 3) 117.07  2W 115.63 (  1)  61.60 ( 22)  59.50 ( 32)
   16  Cedar Rapids Prairie   MVC ( 7- 3) 116.00  5W 111.13 (  4)  67.00 (  6)  62.20 ( 38)

3A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Sergeant Bluff-Luton   MRC ( 8- 4) 114.51  5W  99.23 ( 11)  63.50 ( 14)  52.17 ( 14)
    2  Davenport Assumption   MAC ( 7- 4) 113.43  1W 107.37 (  3)  62.00 ( 25)  57.00 ( 31)
    3  Pella                  L H (10- 1) 113.06  7W 100.60 (  8)  74.09 (  1)  61.00 ( 49)
    4  Waverly-Shell Rock    NE I (12- 0) 112.56 12W  89.09 ( 38)  66.08 ( 10)  46.42 (  4)
    5  Dallas Center-Grimes   L H ( 9- 2) 110.50  2L 101.89 (  6)  60.91 ( 30)  52.45 ( 16)
    6  Cedar Rapids Xavier    MVC ( 4- 6) 110.44  2W 109.89 (  2)  56.90 ( 39)  56.50 ( 28)
    7  Mount Pleasant          SE (10- 1) 109.00 10W  89.47 ( 36)  70.91 (  3)  44.27 (  3)
    8  West Delaware         WAMC (11- 0) 107.73 11W  83.74 ( 55)  62.73 ( 22)  42.36 (  2)
    9  Dubuque Wahlert        MVC ( 1- 9) 106.97  4L 119.86 (  1)  52.60 ( 52)  66.10 ( 59)
   10  Sioux City Heelan      MRC ( 6- 3) 106.62  1W 101.19 (  7)  62.89 ( 20)  56.67 ( 29)
   11  Oskaloosa              L H ( 7- 4) 105.87  1W  98.25 ( 13)  69.91 (  4)  59.45 ( 42)
   12  Grinnell               L H ( 6- 5) 105.73  2W 103.96 (  4)  71.27 (  2)  69.91 ( 64)
   13  LeMars                Lake ( 6- 4) 105.62  3W  98.43 ( 12)  67.10 (  9)  54.70 ( 23)
   14  Mount Vernon          WAMC ( 8- 2) 103.93  3W  94.41 ( 21)  58.70 ( 36)  49.10 (  8)
   15  Boone                  R R ( 6- 5) 103.23  1L  99.42 ( 10)  63.73 ( 13)  60.00 ( 45)
   16  Norwalk                L H ( 6- 6) 103.06  1L 102.34 (  5)  61.25 ( 29)  60.83 ( 48)

2A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Western Christian     Lake (10- 1) 112.29  8W  91.88 (  4)  71.45 (  6)  49.82 ( 21)
    2  Pella Christian        L H (10- 1) 110.97  9W 101.78 (  1)  67.36 ( 11)  57.00 ( 57)
    3  Carroll Kuemper       H 10 ( 9- 1) 106.69  6W  88.41 ( 12)  70.90 (  8)  49.70 ( 20)
    4  Des Moines Christian   W C (10- 2) 104.36  1L  71.83 ( 73)  74.58 (  3)  49.17 ( 19)
    5  Camanche               R V (12- 1) 103.60  9W  77.21 ( 56)  78.15 (  1)  53.54 ( 42)
    6  Goose Lake Northeast   R V (10- 1) 102.33  3W  81.21 ( 36)  64.55 ( 18)  44.18 (  5)
    7  Garner GHV             Top (12- 1) 101.92 10W  82.74 ( 29)  63.38 ( 25)  45.31 (  7)
    8  South Hamilton         H I ( 9- 1) 101.69  1L  82.03 ( 32)  62.40 ( 34)  44.70 (  6)
    9  Cascade W Dubuque      R V (11- 0) 100.14 11W  79.57 ( 46)  55.82 ( 53)  35.55 (  1)
   10  Sheldon                  S (11- 1)  99.99  9W  88.47 ( 11)  62.50 ( 33)  51.25 ( 26)
   11  Sioux Center             S ( 7- 4)  99.87  1L  91.44 (  5)  72.36 (  5)  64.18 ( 82)
   12  Osage                  Top (12- 0)  99.68 12W  70.90 ( 75)  68.42 ( 10)  40.92 (  3)
   13  Rock Valley              S ( 9- 3)  99.34  3W  89.46 (  8)  64.00 ( 21)  52.42 ( 32)
   14  Dike-New Hartford     NICL ( 9- 3)  97.84  1W  85.02 ( 20)  61.83 ( 38)  46.50 ( 10)
   15  Dyersville Beckman    WAMC ( 8- 3)  97.75  5W  90.53 (  6)  61.27 ( 39)  53.64 ( 44)
   16  Inwood West Lyon         S ( 8- 3)  95.87  1W  85.43 ( 16)  71.27 (  7)  60.18 ( 65)

1A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  North Linn             T R (11- 0) 115.56 11W  68.38 ( 67)  81.45 (  2)  34.18 (  1)
    2  New London            SEIS (11- 0)  98.64 11W  68.73 ( 65)  68.55 (  7)  43.27 ( 13)
    3  Siouxland Christian    W V (10- 2)  98.54  3W  65.30 ( 76)  67.67 ( 10)  39.50 (  9)
    4  DM Grand View         Blue (11- 1)  98.51 11W  54.41 (132)  86.50 (  1)  37.42 (  5)
    5  Gladbrook-Reinbeck    NICL ( 8- 1)  93.94  1L  70.51 ( 57)  64.67 ( 22)  39.11 (  7)
    6  Remsen St Mary         W E (10- 0)  93.21 10W  68.78 ( 64)  64.70 ( 21)  41.10 ( 10)
    7  Sheffield West Fork    Top ( 9- 2)  93.13  4W  74.08 ( 30)  63.73 ( 29)  47.09 ( 21)
    8  Lynnville-Sully       SICL (12- 1)  92.88  8W  60.56 (101)  65.31 ( 16)  38.46 (  6)
    9  Boyden-Hull              S ( 5- 6)  92.01  3L  90.12 (  2)  63.82 ( 28)  62.00 (121)
   10  CB St Albert          H 10 ( 4- 7)  91.11  3L  93.53 (  1)  53.36 ( 76)  57.91 ( 89)
   11  Murray                Blue (12- 0)  90.31 12W  53.93 (133)  64.67 ( 23)  37.33 (  4)
   12  George-Little Rock       S ( 8- 5)  90.25  1W  86.90 (  3)  64.15 ( 26)  59.69 (105)
   13  Britt West Hancock     Top ( 9- 2)  89.72  7W  77.40 ( 19)  66.55 ( 11)  47.82 ( 25)
   14  Fort Dodge St Edmond   N C ( 6- 5)  89.03  2W  84.50 (  5)  63.09 ( 33)  58.91 ( 96)
   15  Prince of Peace        T R ( 8- 4)  88.26  1L  78.82 ( 16)  64.75 ( 19)  54.67 ( 72)
   16  Montezuma             SICL (10- 3)  85.43  1L  59.67 (106)  64.23 ( 25)  36.54 (  2)

 

[HawkPT]

Love these analytics. Thank you for them! Please consider doing them for baseball again this year.

 

[westside rules]

It's sad how weak the west side of Iowa is in 4A Basketball. You would think more then 1 team would make the top 15...not sure who it would be however so it's most likely correct.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

My Dubuque Wahlert Golden Eagles blast their way into the 3A top ten with their overpowering 1-9 record! Actually, their schedule is insane. 100% of their nine Iowa opponents so far have been in the 4A or 3A top ten at one time or another this season, including both 4A number 1's in Luke's poll. And they lost Saturday to Madison, WI Edgewood, ranked 11th in 3A in Wisconsin. I'd really hate to be the teams in their district when the tourney starts. Seriously now, this should probably serve as an example of why strength of schedule counts for a little too much in these ratings. No team that has won only 10% of their games would be rated by the humans. (But, their lone victory was over a top ten 4A team.) "Bad, bad computer?"

 

[westside rules]

in the case for western Iowa I'm not sure who I would have in the ranking, possible CBAL however, they could have got beat by Heelan 3A last week. That being said, Western Iowa 4A Basketball is not good. SC Teams are weak, one CB Team is above average and the other one has an impressive record but I don't think they have a single 4A win ?

I would not same the same for 3A, it appears to be above average in western iowa.

 

[makelovenotwar]

EastIowaHawk, What do you actually think about Wahlert? I expected them to be way, way down, but the 2 times I have seen them I am been knocked over how bad they are. So, as a serious question, you think there is an upside to this team? Just doesn't seem to be a great deal of talent on the court.

All of that said, I thought DBQ Senior was over rated at #4. I see they are now #1, Sorry, I just don't see it.

 

[bcmoore87]

> Wahlert schedule

Wahlert is, on average, playing the 7th or 8th best team in 4A.

Losses: (9)

4A #1, #2, #4, #5 (two losses), #8, #22
3A #2
non-IA team

wins: (1)

4A #9


If Wahlert played West Delaware's schedule would they be 11-0?
If West Delaware played Wahlert's schedule would they be 1-9?

(just thoughts)

 

[bcmoore87]

> No team that has won only 10% of their games would be rated by the humans.

In about 2004-2010, sometime in there, the computer had Boyden Hull (12-13) ranked about 8th from memory. They went to the state tournament and got 4th place.

In confirming your above prediction with some data: Boyden-Hull was not ranked in the top 10 by the humans.

Edit: fixed grammar, readability

 

[Jayz10]

> No team that has won only 10% of their games would be rated by the humans.

In about 2004-2010, sometime in there, the computer had Boyden Hull (12-13) ranked about 8th from memory. They went to the state tournament and got 4th place.

In confirming your above prediction with some data: Boyden-Hull was not ranked in the top 10 by the humans.

Edit: fixed grammar, readability

First of all to Eastern hawk. I don't believe that strength of schedule is overused at all. At least not in 1A BC rankings.

Second of all BC I remember that boydenhull team. It was 2008. The Siouxland was brutal as always that year. They were 4-10 at one point and then won 11 of their next 12. Went to Des Moines and pulled off the 8 vs 1 "upset." (Which I wouldn't even consider a huge upset btw). They had lost to George Little Rock both times during that year, but had them beat in the state semifinal game, only to see a game tying buzzer beater and eventual loss in overtime. They could've easily been playing for the championship that year with a 15-11 record. I watch your rankings pretty close and your strength of schedule factor is not out of line. Although in 1A, I'd say SOS could be weighted even higher in some cases. I think the AP rankings in 1A, along with the state tournament seeding is the biggest joke. Sorry to pick on grandview. But you got them with the 131st WEAKEST schedule out of 147 total 1A schools. Theyve beaten teams on average 90-34. LOL.(not their fault I realize that). But If they played in the Siouxland, right now at the halfway point, I would have them at a 3-7 record with about a 61ppg avg MAX. Keep up the good work. Love your site!

 

[HawkPT]

The seeding process is changing this year. No point system for wins by class level. Seeding for district and state tournament brackets will be done by having involved coaches rank the opponents. It will be interesting to see how this system plays out. I think BC's info will likely indirectly impact this process.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Lots of good comments, which I enjoyed. Thanks, everybody. Wahlert is obviously in last place in the MVC, but they can look very bad or halfway good. They graduated their top ten kids from last year's powerhouse, so I honestly thought they would lose every game up to this point, as I posted in late November. They've taken ranked North Scott into overtime and beat Dub. Hempstead, which has beaten CR Kennedy and Cedar Falls. I think the worst record in the 60 year history of the school is something like 9-12, so they are on course to crush that record, although the schedule "lightens up" a bit from here on out, so they could win 3- 5 games, maybe. They just don't seem to play with a lot of patience or savvy shot selection, and it's agonizing to watch all the unforced turnovers, but they'll be fairly respectable in the next couple of years (with five starters back next year)-- maybe even by tourney time. Can you imagine the top 3A district seed having to face Wahlert in the first game? The top three players on the soph team are all freshmen, which helps, although they range from 5-3 to 5-9. The top two players at Mazzuchelli Middle School, Wahlert's main feeder school, are going to Hempstead (Michael Duax) and Senior (Link), as have all their older brothers. Those two kids are really good, and will be varsity players as freshmen. Mazzuchelli's eighth grade class has 53 boys (I was told) on their four basketball teams, so hope springs eternal. This is a great year to also support Senior and Hempstead, both of which have a lot of deadeye shooters. Lots of injuries, though,(especially at Senior) and Western Dubuque's star guard (Lake) is missing the whole season with an injury, or they would have been really tough. Oh well, Cascade is still unbeaten so there is good basketball in Dubuque County, and East Dubuque is undefeated and ranked #3 in Illinois in their class. Lots of fun.

 

[chibull2000]

North Linn ranked so high because of their margin of victory? Also surprised to see the Siouxland teams ranked 9th and 10th. Its a dog fight for them every night. Compared to the other top teams schedules in 1A besides St. Albert really.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

I don't think margin of victory should count for much of anything, as coaches have different reasons for leaving starters in, etc. Strength of schedule is extremely important when it comes to the tournament, but rankings during the season should be a combination of record and schedule. Basketball is so different from football in that there are many 2A teams that could beat 4A teams in basketball, and probably some 1A teams could do it, too. The computer ratings are fun because it shows who plays a tough schedule, but the humans do a better job of ranking the various teams on the quality of their play each week.