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BCMoore Prediction Game: Week 5

bcmoore87

All District
Oct 30, 2001
8,004
29
48
1. Guess the game margin for the top 10 matchups in Class 4A. Beat the computer - earn iapreps fame - prove to everyone that your team is underrated.
<p>
2. Notation: +2 --> Home wins by 2 points. -7 --> Visitor wins by 7 points.
<p>
3. Game is open to all, and all are encouraged to play. The greater the number of participants, the more accurate the overall predictions should be (central limit theorem).
<p>
3.1 Reply to this post in this form:
<p>
username, -2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1
<p>
where: username --> your rivals.com username,<br>
-2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1 --> your predictions for the 10 games this week
<p>
3.2 Notes:
<p>
3.2.1 Use one line only.<br>
3.2.2 Use a comma and space as separators
<p>
3.2 The following are example of bad replies:
<p>
name
<p>
-13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (entry uses two lines, comma after name missing)
<p>
name,-13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (spaces missing)
<p>
name: -13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (don't use colon, spaces missing)
<p>
name -13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (commas after name missing)
<p>
3.3 Motivation of format rules is to minimize mistakes in reading your entry and minimize the amount of my time in working on this contest.
<p>
4. Rankings: Official rankings of the contest are the BCMoore Rankings, <a href="http://bcmoorerankings.com">http://bcmoorerankings.com</a>.
<p>
5. Scoring: Entry with most correct answers wins. Ties will be broken by sum of (absolute values of predictions - actual scores).
<p>
6. Deadline: All entries must be submitted by <b>Friday, 5PM</b>. Entries can be changed up to deadline. To change your entry, submit a new entry. Do not edit a previous entry; I may not see the change you want to make.
<p>
7. Duration: Contest will run for the length of the regular season. Updates on season long standings will be given weekly in addition to each individual weeks winner.
<p>
8. Game selection: Games are generally selected based on two criteria:<br>
8.1 Each district has at least one team in the weekly game.<br>
8.2 Remaining games are selected based on state-wide merit.<br>


<p>
This week's games:


Code:
 N Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                Matchup
40 4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            148.39
41 4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie           145.36
42 4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf           142.44
43 4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton              136.49
44 4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque      135.71
45 4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           117.59
46 4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk       116.49
47 4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton               114.82
48 4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston             110.10
49 4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           108.86

Composite Computer, -14, -8, 5, -13, 23, -8, 3, 27, 12, -14
Modified Computer, -18, -1, 7, -5, -7, -9, 5, 10, 25, -25
Standard Computer, -12, -3, 16, -8, -6, -13, 9, 7, 25, -26
Momentum Computer, -12, -3, 16, -8, -6, -13, 9, 7, 25, -26
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0 -12.0
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -1.0
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  14.0
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0 -13.0
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -4.0
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0  -9.0
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   8.0
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  18.0
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  12.0
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -25.0
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0 -12.0
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -2.0
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  12.0
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0 -13.5
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -3.5
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0 -10.5
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   7.0
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  18.5
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  13.0
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -24.5
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0  -9.5
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -2.0
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  10.0
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0 -10.5
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -3.5
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0 -12.5
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   6.5
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  16.0
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  13.0
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -22.5
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0  -8.5
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -3.0
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  11.5
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0 -10.5
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -3.5
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0 -13.0
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   7.5
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  16.0
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  17.5
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -24.5
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0  -7.0
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -3.0
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  13.0
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0  -8.0
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -3.0
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0 -13.0
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   7.0
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  14.0
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  14.0
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -25.0
 
currently recorded as:
iowaqb, +4, +9, +10, -18, -4, +9, +11, +18, +3, -33

again please resubmit and verify I have your correct entry
 
iowaqb - recorded - thanks for the clarification!

Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0  -7.0
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -3.0
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  13.0
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0  -8.0
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -3.0
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0 -13.0
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   7.0
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  14.0
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  18.0
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -24.0
 
1. Guess the game margin for the top 10 matchups in Class 4A. Beat the computer - earn iapreps fame - prove to everyone that your team is underrated.
<p>
2. Notation: +2 --> Home wins by 2 points. -7 --> Visitor wins by 7 points.
<p>
3. Game is open to all, and all are encouraged to play. The greater the number of participants, the more accurate the overall predictions should be (central limit theorem).
<p>
3.1 Reply to this post in this form:
<p>
username, -2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1
<p>
where: username --> your rivals.com username,<br>
-2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1 --> your predictions for the 10 games this week
<p>
3.2 Notes:
<p>
3.2.1 Use one line only.<br>
3.2.2 Use a comma and space as separators
<p>
3.2 The following are example of bad replies:
<p>
name
<p>
-13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (entry uses two lines, comma after name missing)
<p>
name,-13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (spaces missing)
<p>
name: -13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (don't use colon, spaces missing)
<p>
name -13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (commas after name missing)
<p>
3.3 Motivation of format rules is to minimize mistakes in reading your entry and minimize the amount of my time in working on this contest.
<p>
4. Rankings: Official rankings of the contest are the BCMoore Rankings, <a href="http://bcmoorerankings.com">http://bcmoorerankings.com</a>.
<p>
5. Scoring: Entry with most correct answers wins. Ties will be broken by sum of (absolute values of predictions - actual scores).
<p>
6. Deadline: All entries must be submitted by <b>Friday, 5PM</b>. Entries can be changed up to deadline. To change your entry, submit a new entry. Do not edit a previous entry; I may not see the change you want to make.
<p>
7. Duration: Contest will run for the length of the regular season. Updates on season long standings will be given weekly in addition to each individual weeks winner.
<p>
8. Game selection: Games are generally selected based on two criteria:<br>
8.1 Each district has at least one team in the weekly game.<br>
8.2 Remaining games are selected based on state-wide merit.<br>


<p>
This week's games:


Code:
N Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                Matchup
40 4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            148.39
41 4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie           145.36
42 4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf           142.44
43 4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton              136.49
44 4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque      135.71
45 4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           117.59
46 4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk       116.49
47 4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton               114.82
48 4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston             110.10
49 4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           108.86

Composite Computer, -14, -8, 5, -13, 23, -8, 3, 27, 12, -14
Modified Computer, -18, -1, 7, -5, -7, -9, 5, 10, 25, -25
Standard Computer, -12, -3, 16, -8, -6, -13, 9, 7, 25, -26
Momentum Computer, -12, -3, 16, -8, -6, -13, 9, 7, 25, -26
And to quote and old, retired NYC sportscaster, "if you had Cedar Rapids Kennedy and 65...YOU LOST!"
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr Act
4A-3  4 (3-0) CB Lewis Central     4A-3 15 (2-2) Urbandale            -13.0  -7.0 -19
4A-8 11 (3-1) Iowa City West       4A-8 13 (3-1) CR Prairie            -3.0  -3.0  19
4A-7  9 (3-1) Muscatine            4A-7  6 (2-2) Bettendorf            11.5  13.0  28
4A-7 14 (3-1) Iowa City High       4A-7 19 (3-1) Clinton               -8.0  -8.0 -21
4A-6 17 (1-3) Pleasant Valley      4A-6 20 (3-1) Western Dubuque       -6.0  -3.0   4
4A-2 21 (2-2) Ames                 4A-2 26 (2-2) CB Lincoln           -11.0 -13.0 -21
4A-4 24 (2-2) Indianola            4A-4 23 (1-3) Southeast Polk         7.0   7.0  20
4A-4 37 (1-3) Marshalltown         4A-4 31 (4-0) Newton                 8.5  14.0  31
4A-1 29 (3-1) Des Moines East      4A-1 16 (1-3) Johnston              25.0  18.0   1
4A-5 12 (2-2) Cedar Falls          4A-5 30 (2-2) Mason City           -25.5 -24.0 -14
 
Code:
Composite Computer wins

Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
Composite Computer     9  10 0.900  127
Straw1397              9  10 0.900  133
GoBigD6788             9  10 0.900  136
Kraftwerk              8  10 0.800  101
screwloose             8  10 0.800  114
MarionHawk             8  10 0.800  123
Standard Computer      8  10 0.800  143
Momentum Computer      8  10 0.800  143
bcmoore87              8  10 0.800  144
Modified Computer      8  10 0.800  152
makelovenotwar         7  10 0.700  141
Dragon7678             7  10 0.700  173
iowaqb                 6  10 0.600  190


GoBigD6788 leads

Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
GoBigD6788            37  49 0.755  756
MarionHawk            36  49 0.735  670
Straw1397             35  49 0.714  749
Dragon7678            35  49 0.714  768
bcmoore87             34  49 0.694  771
Modified Computer     34  49 0.694  808
Composite Computer    34  49 0.694  940
screwloose            32  39 0.821  616
Standard Computer     30  49 0.612  786
Momentum Computer     30  49 0.612  786
makelovenotwar        27  49 0.551  872
Iafootballfan         19  30 0.633  903
iowaqb                16  30 0.533  928
zmac328                9  10 0.900  850
Kraftwerk              8  10 0.800  831
DSMan                  8  10 0.800  882
Simpson Storm          6  10 0.600  896

MarionHawk leads


Name                 ATS Att   %    p-val Fame
MarionHawk            29  42 0.690  0.006   16
screwloose            21  33 0.636  0.059    9
Kraftwerk              9  10 0.900  0.002    8
Dragon7678            26  46 0.565  0.191    6
iowaqb                17  28 0.607  0.132    6
zmac328                5   7 0.714  0.145    3
Straw1397             20  38 0.526  0.375    2
GoBigD6788            20  38 0.526  0.375    2
DSMan                  5   9 0.556  0.380    1
makelovenotwar        20  41 0.488  0.439   -1
Composite Computer    23  47 0.489  0.443   -1
bcmoore87             17  37 0.459  0.314   -3
Simpson Storm          2   7 0.286  0.145   -3
Standard Computer     14  33 0.424  0.196   -5
Momentum Computer     14  33 0.424  0.196   -5
Iafootballfan          9  23 0.391  0.154   -5
Modified Computer     16  41 0.390  0.081   -9
 
sorry, somehow your first guess was recorded as +21, unclear how it happened -- I always try to copy and paste.
 
Code:
Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
Composite Computer     9  10 0.900  127
Straw1397              9  10 0.900  133
GoBigD6788             9  10 0.900  136
Kraftwerk              8  10 0.800  101
screwloose             8  10 0.800  114
MarionHawk             8  10 0.800  123
Dragon7678             8  10 0.800  135
Standard Computer      8  10 0.800  143
Momentum Computer      8  10 0.800  143
bcmoore87              8  10 0.800  144
Modified Computer      8  10 0.800  152
makelovenotwar         7  10 0.700  141
iowaqb                 6  10 0.600  190


Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
GoBigD6788            37  49 0.755  756
MarionHawk            36  49 0.735  670
Dragon7678            36  49 0.735  730
Straw1397             35  49 0.714  749
bcmoore87             34  49 0.694  771
Modified Computer     34  49 0.694  808
Composite Computer    34  49 0.694  940
screwloose            32  39 0.821  616
Standard Computer     30  49 0.612  786
Momentum Computer     30  49 0.612  786
makelovenotwar        27  49 0.551  872
Iafootballfan         19  30 0.633  903
iowaqb                16  30 0.533  928
zmac328                9  10 0.900  850
Kraftwerk              8  10 0.800  831
DSMan                  8  10 0.800  882
Simpson Storm          6  10 0.600  896


Name                 ATS Att   %    p-val Fame
MarionHawk            29  42 0.690  0.006   16
screwloose            21  33 0.636  0.059    9
Dragon7678            27  46 0.587  0.121    8
Kraftwerk              9  10 0.900  0.002    8
iowaqb                17  28 0.607  0.132    6
zmac328                5   7 0.714  0.145    3
Straw1397             19  37 0.514  0.436    1
GoBigD6788            20  39 0.513  0.438    1
DSMan                  5   9 0.556  0.380    1
Composite Computer    23  47 0.489  0.443   -1
makelovenotwar        20  42 0.476  0.381   -2
Simpson Storm          2   7 0.286  0.145   -3
bcmoore87             17  38 0.447  0.262   -4
Standard Computer     14  33 0.424  0.196   -5
Momentum Computer     14  33 0.424  0.196   -5
Iafootballfan          9  23 0.391  0.154   -5
Modified Computer     16  41 0.390  0.081   -9
 
dev = Deviation -- how may points a contestant's guesses were from the actual game margins
 
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