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BCMoore Prediction Game: week 4

bcmoore87

All District
Oct 30, 2001
8,004
29
48
1. Guess the game margin for the top 10 matchups in Class 4A. Beat the computer - earn iapreps fame - prove to everyone that your team is underrated.
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2. Notation: +2 --> Home wins by 2 points. -7 --> Visitor wins by 7 points.
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3. Game is open to all, and all are encouraged to play. The greater the number of participants, the more accurate the overall predictions should be (central limit theorem).
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3.1 Reply to this post in this form:
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username, -2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1
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where: username --> your rivals.com username,<br>
-2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1 --> your predictions for the 10 games this week
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3.2 Notes:
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3.2.1 Use one line only.<br>
3.2.2 Use a comma and space as separators
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3.2 The following are example of bad replies:
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name
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-13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (entry uses two lines, comma after name missing)
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name,-13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (spaces missing)
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name: -13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (don't use colon, spaces missing)
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name -13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (commas after name missing)
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3.3 Motivation of format rules is to minimize mistakes in reading your entry and minimize the amount of my time in working on this contest.
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4. Rankings: Official rankings of the contest are the BCMoore Rankings, <a href="http://bcmoorerankings.com">http://bcmoorerankings.com</a>.
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5. Scoring: Entry with most correct answers wins. Ties will be broken by sum of (absolute values of predictions - actual scores).
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6. Deadline: All entries must be submitted by <b>Friday, 5PM</b>. Entries can be changed up to deadline. To change your entry, submit a new entry. Do not edit a previous entry; I may not see the change you want to make.
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7. Duration: Contest will run for the length of the regular season. Updates on season long standings will be given weekly in addition to each individual weeks winner.
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8. Game selection: Games are generally selected based on two criteria:<br>
8.1 Each district has at least one team in the weekly game.<br>
8.2 Remaining games are selected based on state-wide merit.<br>


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This week's games:


Code:
 N Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                Matchup
31 4A-5 13 (3-0) Cedar Falls          4A-4 10 (1-2) Urbandale            206.33
32 4A-3 17 (2-1) Ankeny Centennial    4A-1 11 (0-3) Southeast Polk       205.88
33 4A-4 14 (1-2) Waukee               4A-2  7 (3-0) Johnston             203.35
34 4A-3  1 (3-0) WDM Valley           4A-2  8 (2-0) WDM Dowling          201.91
35 4A-7 18 (0-3) Iowa City West       4A-6 16 (1-2) Iowa City High       198.69
36 4A-5 12 (1-2) Waterloo West        4A-4 21 (1-2) Mason City           196.91
37 4A-5  6 (3-0) CR Kennedy           4A-7 23 (2-1) Pleasant Valley      190.28
38 4A-7 26 (2-1) Dubuque Hempstead    4A-8 25 (2-1) Dubuque Senior       188.41
39 4A-6 28 (1-2) CR Prairie           4A-8 29 (0-3) Eldridge North Scott 177.46
40 4A-4 22 (2-1) Indianola            4A-6 30 (3-0) Ottumwa              174.62

Composite Computer, -33, -16, 34, -11, 31, 5, -26, 7, -7, 32
Modified Computer, 4, 7, 9, -25, 3, -9, -19, 5, 1, -14
Standard Computer, 4, 1, 8, -25, -2, -2, -17, -1, -5, -13
Momentum Computer, 4, 1, 8, -25, -2, -2, -17, -1, -5, -13
 
-7, -7, +3, -18, +7, -7, +3, +10, +3, -7

resubmitted
 
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Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5 13 (3-0) Cedar Falls          4A-4 10 (1-2) Urbandale              4.0  -7.0
4A-3 17 (2-1) Ankeny Centennial    4A-1 11 (0-3) Southeast Polk         1.0   1.0
4A-4 14 (1-2) Waukee               4A-2  7 (3-0) Johnston               8.5   8.0
4A-3  1 (3-0) WDM Valley           4A-2  8 (2-0) WDM Dowling          -25.0 -18.0
4A-7 18 (0-3) Iowa City West       4A-6 16 (1-2) Iowa City High         0.5   3.0
4A-5 12 (1-2) Waterloo West        4A-4 21 (1-2) Mason City            -2.0  -7.0
4A-5  6 (3-0) CR Kennedy           4A-7 23 (2-1) Pleasant Valley      -18.0 -17.0
4A-7 26 (2-1) Dubuque Hempstead    4A-8 25 (2-1) Dubuque Senior         2.0   1.0
4A-6 28 (1-2) CR Prairie           4A-8 29 (0-3) Eldridge North Scott  -5.0  -5.0
4A-4 22 (2-1) Indianola            4A-6 30 (3-0) Ottumwa              -13.0  -3.5
 
DSMan - I integrated your correction.

Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5 13 (3-0) Cedar Falls          4A-4 10 (1-2) Urbandale              4.0  -0.5
4A-3 17 (2-1) Ankeny Centennial    4A-1 11 (0-3) Southeast Polk         1.0   1.0
4A-4 14 (1-2) Waukee               4A-2  7 (3-0) Johnston               8.5   7.5
4A-3  1 (3-0) WDM Valley           4A-2  8 (2-0) WDM Dowling          -25.0 -17.5
4A-7 18 (0-3) Iowa City West       4A-6 16 (1-2) Iowa City High         0.5   3.0
4A-5 12 (1-2) Waterloo West        4A-4 21 (1-2) Mason City            -2.0  -5.0
4A-5  6 (3-0) CR Kennedy           4A-7 23 (2-1) Pleasant Valley      -18.0 -15.5
4A-7 26 (2-1) Dubuque Hempstead    4A-8 25 (2-1) Dubuque Senior         2.0   2.0
4A-6 28 (1-2) CR Prairie           4A-8 29 (0-3) Eldridge North Scott  -5.0  -4.5
4A-4 22 (2-1) Indianola            4A-6 30 (3-0) Ottumwa              -13.0  -8.5
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5 13 (3-0) Cedar Falls          4A-4 10 (1-2) Urbandale              4.0  -3.0
4A-3 17 (2-1) Ankeny Centennial    4A-1 11 (0-3) Southeast Polk         1.0   1.0
4A-4 14 (1-2) Waukee               4A-2  7 (3-0) Johnston               8.5   7.0
4A-3  1 (3-0) WDM Valley           4A-2  8 (2-0) WDM Dowling          -25.0 -14.0
4A-7 18 (0-3) Iowa City West       4A-6 16 (1-2) Iowa City High         0.5   3.0
4A-5 12 (1-2) Waterloo West        4A-4 21 (1-2) Mason City            -2.0  -3.0
4A-5  6 (3-0) CR Kennedy           4A-7 23 (2-1) Pleasant Valley      -18.0 -14.0
4A-7 26 (2-1) Dubuque Hempstead    4A-8 25 (2-1) Dubuque Senior         2.0   3.0
4A-6 28 (1-2) CR Prairie           4A-8 29 (0-3) Eldridge North Scott  -5.0  -5.0
4A-4 22 (2-1) Indianola            4A-6 30 (3-0) Ottumwa              -13.0 -10.0
 
Code:
Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk (W-L) Home                  Open  Curr Act                       
4A-5 13 (3-0) Cedar Falls          4A-4 10 (1-2) Urbandale              4.0  -3.0   7                       
4A-3 17 (2-1) Ankeny Centennial    4A-1 11 (0-3) Southeast Polk         1.0   1.0  37
4A-4 14 (1-2) Waukee               4A-2  7 (3-0) Johnston               8.5   7.0  -9
4A-3  1 (3-0) WDM Valley           4A-2  8 (2-0) WDM Dowling          -25.0 -14.0  17
4A-7 18 (0-3) Iowa City West       4A-6 16 (1-2) Iowa City High         0.5   3.0   2
4A-5 12 (1-2) Waterloo West        4A-4 21 (1-2) Mason City            -2.0  -3.0 -22
4A-5  6 (3-0) CR Kennedy           4A-7 23 (2-1) Pleasant Valley      -18.0 -14.0 -17
4A-7 26 (2-1) Dubuque Hempstead    4A-8 25 (2-1) Dubuque Senior         2.0   3.0  -7
4A-6 28 (1-2) CR Prairie           4A-8 29 (0-3) Eldridge North Scott  -5.0  -5.0  13
4A-4 22 (2-1) Indianola            4A-6 30 (3-0) Ottumwa              -13.0 -10.0  -8
 
Code:
Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
Dragon7678             8  10 0.800  118
Straw1397              7  10 0.700  126
Modified Computer      7  10 0.700  139
screwloose             6  10 0.600  135
Dodge59                6  10 0.600  135
Standard Computer      6  10 0.600  151
Momentum Computer      6  10 0.600  151
Orsky1                 5  10 0.500  133
GoBigD6788             5  10 0.500  166
bcmoore87              4  10 0.400  148
Simpson Storm          4  10 0.400  164
DSMan                  4  10 0.400  173
MarionHawk             3  10 0.300  158
makelovenotwar         2  10 0.200  169
Composite Computer     2  10 0.200  303


Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
Dragon7678            27  40 0.675  594
screwloose            25  40 0.625  568
GoBigD6788            24  40 0.600  585
Standard Computer     24  40 0.600  643
Momentum Computer     24  40 0.600  643
Modified Computer     24  40 0.600  647
makelovenotwar        23  40 0.575  569
Composite Computer    23  40 0.575  841
Straw1397             22  40 0.550  595
bcmoore87             21  40 0.525  624
MarionHawk            18  30 0.600  599
SimpsonStorm          17  30 0.567  628
PNation               17  30 0.567  635
SEPRamFan             16  30 0.533  594
Orsky1                16  30 0.533  624
Dodge59               13  20 0.650  626
RedAgentRadar         12  20 0.600  673
ZMac328               10  20 0.500  636
DSMan                  8  20 0.400  706
Simpson Storm          4  10 0.400  665


Name                 ATS Att   %    p-val Fame
screwloose            21  33 0.636  0.059    9
MarionHawk            18  28 0.643  0.066    8
ZMac328               14  20 0.700  0.036    8
Dodge59               12  18 0.667  0.082    6
makelovenotwar        17  30 0.567  0.237    4
Orsky1                14  26 0.538  0.351    2
GoBigD6788            15  29 0.517  0.428    1
SEPRamFan             12  23 0.522  0.420    1
RedAgentRadar          7  13 0.538  0.397    1
Composite Computer    19  37 0.514  0.436    1
Straw1397             16  32 0.500  0.500    0
Standard Computer     15  30 0.500  0.500    0
Momentum Computer     15  30 0.500  0.500    0
Modified Computer     17  34 0.500  0.500    0
Simpson Storm          3   6 0.500  0.500    0
SimpsonStorm          12  26 0.462  0.351   -2
Dragon7678            14  32 0.438  0.244   -4
DSMan                  7  18 0.389  0.180   -4
PNation               10  26 0.385  0.123   -6
bcmoore87              8  23 0.348  0.074   -7
 
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* made an attempt to week2-4 standings; no initial success.
* will make another attempt

Contest program is about 850 lines long, and generally written about 7-10 years ago.
 
trickiness is integrating the weekly responses (1 database) with the season-long accounting (another database)
 
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