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BCMoore Prediction Game: playoff 5

bcmoore87

All District
Oct 30, 2001
8,004
29
48
1. Guess the game margin for the playoff matchups in Class 4A. Beat the computer - earn iapreps fame - prove to everyone that your team is underrated.
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2. Notation: +2 --> Home wins by 2 points. -7 --> Visitor wins by 7 points.
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3. Game is open to all, and all are encouraged to play. The greater the number of participants, the more accurate the overall predictions should be (central limit theorem).
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3.1 Reply to this post in this form:
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username, -2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1
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where: username --> your rivals.com username,<br>
-2, -4, +3, +5, -3, +10, -20, +3, +3, -1 --> your predictions for the 10 games this week
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3.2 Notes:
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3.2.1 Use one line only.<br>
3.2.2 Use a comma and space as separators
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3.2 The following are example of bad replies:
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name
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-13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (entry uses two lines, comma after name missing)
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name,-13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (spaces missing)
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name: -13,+3,+14,+12,+4,+26,+10,-8,+21,+43 (don't use colon, spaces missing)
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name -13, +3, +14, +12, +4, +26, +10, -8, +21, +43 (commas after name missing)
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3.3 Motivation of format rules is to minimize mistakes in reading your entry and minimize the amount of my time in working on this contest.
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4. Rankings: Official rankings of the contest are the BCMoore Rankings, <a href="http://bcmoorerankings.com">http://bcmoorerankings.com</a>.
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5. Scoring: Entry with most correct answers wins. Ties will be broken by sum of (absolute values of predictions - actual scores).
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6. Deadline: All entries must be submitted before <b>5PM</b> of game day. Entries can be changed up to deadline. To change your entry, submit a new entry. Do not edit a previous entry; I may not see the change you want to make.
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7. Duration: Contest will run for the length of the playoffs. Updates on season long standings will be given weekly in addition to each individual weeks winner.


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This week's games:


Code:
 N Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                Matchup
31 4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling          202.79

Composite Computer, -3
Modified Computer, 5
Standard Computer, 3
Momentum Computer, -1
 
hard to say. On one hand, its unprecedented to threepeat but on the other hand Dowling won the past two titles by a combined sixty points. So i'll say Dowling by a TD.
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   4.0
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   4.0
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   4.0
 
if this was Vegas, i'd put my money on dowling but I think the idea of them winning by 30-40 points is unlikely. It's the science of "regression to the mean". If an eastside school is blown out in two straight years - the odds of it happening again decreases with each passing year.
 
DSMan....I know BCMoore87.....BCMoore87 was my friend....I went to stats class with BCMoore87.....DSMan, you are no BCMoore87.

The observation that East has whipped West 2 years in a row does not alter the probability of it happening this year. Regression back to the mean is better understood at a craps table. The individual tosses of the dice are independent of each other just as are different state title games involving different teams in different years. A whipping in no more or less likely because it happened last year.
 
makelovenotwar is right. You can flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row. The next time you flip the coin it is still a 50% probability that it will be heads again. Each occurrence stands on its own with no influence from prior coin tosses.
 
The problem with the "vegas" argument is that the East minus West difference is not the same each year. A 30+ win is much easier when one team is favored by 16-23.

I like DSMan's insights; we will know the answer in a few days.

+ = west favored, - = east favored
2000 - prediction +14, actual +7
2001 - prediction -7, actual +20
2002 - prediction -4, actual +20
2003 - prediction +16, actual +10
2004 - prediction -9, actual -12
2005 - prediction +1, actual +3
2006 - prediction -7, actual -15
2007 - prediction +9, actual -5
2008 - prediction +1, actual -19
2009 - prediction -14, actual -28
2010 - prediction +10, actual +7
2011 - predictio +9, actual +3
2012 - prediction +3, actual +6
2013 - prediction +16, actual +31
2014 - prediction +23, actual +35
2015 - prediction +5,
 
SimpsonStorm: thanks for the correction (hard to translate all the + and - based on definitions!)

+ = west favored, - = east favored
2000 - prediction +14, actual +7
2001 - prediction -7, actual +20
2002 - prediction -4, actual +20
2003 - prediction +16, actual +10
2004 - prediction -9, actual -12
2005 - prediction +1, actual +3
2006 - prediction -7, actual -15
2007 - prediction +9, actual -5
2008 - prediction +1, actual +19
2009 - prediction -14, actual -28
2010 - prediction +10, actual +7
2011 - predictio +9, actual +3
2012 - prediction +3, actual +6
2013 - prediction +16, actual +31
2014 - prediction +23, actual +35
2015 - prediction +5,
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   5.0
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   5.5
 
people-people-people listen I keep telling you it's going to be Dowling in a ROUT! Unfortunately it's going to be a boring final, if teams on the west can't hang with Dowling then god help those on the EAST.
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   6.0
 
Code:
Conf Rk ( W-L) Visitor              Conf Rk ( W-L) Home                  Open  Curr Act
4A-5  2 (13-0) CR Kennedy           4A-2  1 (12-0) WDM Dowling            1.0   6.0  31
 
Code:
Congratulations to straw1397, perfect pick!


Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
straw1397              1   1 1.000    0
GoBigD6788             1   1 1.000    3
SEPRamFan              1   1 1.000    4
slingitnow             1   1 1.000    7
ORSKY1                 1   1 1.000   11
SimpsonStorm           1   1 1.000   14
fmclonefan             1   1 1.000   17
DSMan                  1   1 1.000   25
Modified Computer      1   1 1.000   26
Standard Computer      1   1 1.000   28
bcmoore87              1   1 1.000   28
Momentum Computer      0   1 0.000   32
Composite Computer     0   1 0.000   34
makelovenotwar         0   1 0.000   39
Dragon7678             0   1 0.000   43


bcmoore87 win by deviation tie-breaker.

Name                 Cor Att   %    Dev
bcmoore87             28  31 0.903  460
Modified Computer     28  31 0.903  471
ORSKY1                28  31 0.903  481
Standard Computer     27  31 0.871  501
Dragon7678            26  31 0.839  435
straw1397             26  31 0.839  505
GoBigD6788            26  31 0.839  521
Composite Computer    25  31 0.806  480
Momentum Computer     25  31 0.806  532
fmclonefan            25  31 0.806  545
SimpsonStorm          25  31 0.806  580
screwloose            23  30 0.767  499
makelovenotwar        22  31 0.710  571
MarionHawk            13  18 0.722  605
Wildcatstony           6   8 0.750  802
DSMan                  2   3 0.667  874
SEPRamFan              1   1 1.000  853
slingitnow             1   1 1.000  856


Dragon7678 wins the fame game.

Name                 ATS Att   %    p-val Fame
Dragon7678            19  28 0.679  0.029   10
bcmoore87             16  23 0.696  0.029    9
Composite Computer    19  30 0.633  0.074    8
Modified Computer     17  27 0.630  0.091    7
MarionHawk            11  16 0.688  0.069    6
ORSKY1                15  27 0.556  0.287    3
Wildcatstony           5   8 0.625  0.258    2
screwloose            14  27 0.519  0.426    1
SEPRamFan              1   1 1.000  0.000    1
slingitnow             1   1 1.000  0.000    1
DSMan                  0   1 0.000  1.000   -1
GoBigD6788            11  25 0.440  0.280   -3
Standard Computer     10  25 0.400  0.164   -5
fmclonefan            11  27 0.407  0.173   -5
straw1397             11  28 0.393  0.132   -6
makelovenotwar        11  28 0.393  0.132   -6
Momentum Computer      9  28 0.321  0.029  -10
SimpsonStorm           8  26 0.308  0.024  -10
 
when you guys get a minute look at my earlier post....Dowling in a rout of 24 points or more. Be warned I might play all season long next year!
 
thank you -- last two rounds I was simply locking it in against the computer. I thought the last game would be close based on exuberance of Dowling predictions. Clearly those predictors had insight.
 
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