And Now! The 2021 Class 5A Calculatr— oh, forget it, I can’t figure it out

[KidSilverhair]

Oh, RPI - you make things so tricky, with your opponents’ winning percentage and your opponents’ opponents’ games also factoring in, meaning the results of 70-some games every week could change your score - not to mention that not only does your *own* winning percentage count for 37.5%, it *also* is figured into your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (since you are, of course, one of the opponents of your opponent …).

So I haven’t figured out how much a team‘s RPI could change from week-to-week, or exactly what obvious factors make the change bigger or smaller … but I do know the most important thing to start with is your own wins and losses. So let’s focus on that as we roll up into the final week of the regular season.

Heres the top 20 in 5A RPI, the relative gaps between, and their upcoming opponents heading into Week 9:

• Southeast Polk .6738 (Cedar Rapids Jefferson)

.6700

.6600

• Cedar Rapids Kennedy .6570 (Dubuque Hempstead)

.6500

.6400

• Valley, West Des Moines .6398 (Des Moines Roosevelt)

.6300

• Prairie .6233 (Linn-Mar)
• Linn-Mar .6225 (Prairie)

.6200

• Urbandale .6173 (Waukee Northwest)
• Ankeny .6150 (Des Moines Lincoln)
• Pleasant Valley .6101 (Iowa City West)

.6100

• City High .6069 (Davenport Central)

.6000

.5900

• Dowling .5899 (Waukee)

.5800

.5700

.5600

• Cedar Falls .5515 (Dubuque Senior)
• Dubuque Senior .5502 (Cedar Falls)

.5500

.5400

• Waukee Northwest .5341 (Urbandale)

.5300

• Des Moines Roosevelt .5289 (Valley WDM)
• Des Moines Lincoln .5287 (Ankeny)
• Bettendorf .5249 (Davenport North)

======================================(cut line for playoffs)==========================
.5200

.5100

• Ames .5062 (Johnston)
• Davenport North .5019 (Bettendorf)

.5000

• Ankeny Centennial .4952 (Des Moines East)
• Dubuque Hempstead .4904 (CR Kennedy)

The top 8 should all be favored (except for Linn-Mar and Prairie facing each other), which would likely give SE Polk, Kennedy, Valley, Urbandale, Ankeny, and the Prairie-LinnMar winner a first round home game. I suspect City High might be able to move past Pleasant Valley to get a first round home game, too, even if both of them win.

I suspect the top four will remain in the top four, except if Prairie loses, but they may not be in that order. Again, it may be possible for Urbandale or even Ankeny to sneak into the top four, who knows.

The real action happens towards the bottom. Both Roosevelt and Lincoln will be favored to lose Friday, which likely knocks them out of the playoffs. I suspect Cedar Falls will lose to Dubuque Senior (the Tigers are down to their fourth QB or something), which probably puts them on the bubble. Likewise Waukee Northwest, should they lose to Urbandale (a Northwest win and they’re both in, but Urbandale probably misses out on a home game then). The teams with the most likely shot to move into the top 16 are Ames and Ankeny Centennial.

This is just my look at things, and I’ll probably be embarrassingly wrong, but what’s new?

 

[ISUChip]

In a 9-game season...

You win = .0417 (1/9 * 3/8)
An opponent wins = .0046 (1/81 * 3/8)
An opponent's opponent wins = .0003 (1/729 * 1/4)

 

[Reasoned]

Oh, RPI - you make things so tricky, with your opponents’ winning percentage and your opponents’ opponents’ games also factoring in, meaning the results of 70-some games every week could change your score - not to mention that not only does your *own* winning percentage count for 37.5%, it *also* is figured into your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (since you are, of course, one of the opponents of your opponent …).

So I haven’t figured out how much a team‘s RPI could change from week-to-week, or exactly what obvious factors make the change bigger or smaller … but I do know the most important thing to start with is your own wins and losses. So let’s focus on that as we roll up into the final week of the regular season.

Heres the top 20 in 5A RPI, the relative gaps between, and their upcoming opponents heading into Week 9:

• Southeast Polk .6738 (Cedar Rapids Jefferson)

.6700

.6600

• Cedar Rapids Kennedy .6570 (Dubuque Hempstead)

.6500

.6400

• Valley, West Des Moines .6398 (Des Moines Roosevelt)

.6300

• Prairie .6233 (Linn-Mar)
• Linn-Mar .6225 (Prairie)

.6200

• Urbandale .6173 (Waukee Northwest)
• Ankeny .6150 (Des Moines Lincoln)
• Pleasant Valley .6101 (Iowa City West)

.6100

• City High .6069 (Davenport Central)

.6000

.5900

• Dowling .5899 (Waukee)

.5800

.5700

.5600

• Cedar Falls .5515 (Dubuque Senior)
• Dubuque Senior .5502 (Cedar Falls)

.5500

.5400

• Waukee Northwest .5341 (Urbandale)

.5300

• Des Moines Roosevelt .5289 (Valley WDM)
• Des Moines Lincoln .5287 (Ankeny)
• Bettendorf .5249 (Davenport North)

======================================(cut line for playoffs)==========================
.5200

.5100

• Ames .5062 (Johnston)
• Davenport North .5019 (Bettendorf)

.5000

• Ankeny Centennial .4952 (Des Moines East)
• Dubuque Hempstead .4904 (CR Kennedy)

The top 8 should all be favored (except for Linn-Mar and Prairie facing each other), which would likely give SE Polk, Kennedy, Valley, Urbandale, Ankeny, and the Prairie-LinnMar winner a first round home game. I suspect City High might be able to move past Pleasant Valley to get a first round home game, too, even if both of them win.

I suspect the top four will remain in the top four, except if Prairie loses, but they may not be in that order. Again, it may be possible for Urbandale or even Ankeny to sneak into the top four, who knows.

The real action happens towards the bottom. Both Roosevelt and Lincoln will be favored to lose Friday, which likely knocks them out of the playoffs. I suspect Cedar Falls will lose to Dubuque Senior (the Tigers are down to their fourth QB or something), which probably puts them on the bubble. Likewise Waukee Northwest, should they lose to Urbandale (a Northwest win and they’re both in, but Urbandale probably misses out on a home game then). The teams with the most likely shot to move into the top 16 are Ames and Ankeny Centennial.

This is just my look at things, and I’ll probably be embarrassingly wrong, but what’s new?

Actually, looks pretty spot on, nice work. You have to feel for the two DSM schools being right on the bubble and both facing stiff foes (Valley & Ankeny), as is Dav North (Bett). Cedar Falls vs Senior should be interesting as is the Waukee NW vs Urbandale & SEP vs LinnMar. I kind of like the RPI combined with schedule weighting, there are teams in the mix going into last games which are normally not part of the conversation.

 

[hawxs22]

Couldn't Roosevelt still make it with a loss to Valley, does a valley loss really hurt them since Valley is a quality opponent?

I think they still could make it with a loss, but for that to happen I think Johnston has to beat Ames.

Thoughts?

 

[Reasoned]

Not sure but W-L is weighted the heaviest and having a 5-4 record will require a little more help from the strength of your schedule….and a heavy dose of luck also won’t hurt. As it stands after 8 weeks only two teams (Waukee NW & Bett) are in top 16 with .500 W-L and this is due to schedule strength, I suspect a couple of 5-4 teams will end up in the PO’s but can’t conceive of any 4-5.

 

[hawxs22]

I just honestly don't see teams jumping into the Top 16 that are outside of it, besides an Ames and they still have to beat Johnston to accomplish that. Multiple 5-4 teams should qualify.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Valley dropped by almost .0400 after losing last week. Ames dropped by over .0200. It’s easy to picture Roosevelt & Lincoln dropping out of the top 16 if they lose (the question is, does Ames or Centennial pick up enough ground to pass either of them?).

It also doesn’t really matter about how strong the team is you’re playing. Their winning percentage has been a part of your RPI all season - so their win (over you) does boost your opponents’ WP factor, but not nearly as much as your loss hits your RPI. You have to take the week as a whole (how do all nine of your opponents do this final week?) as opposed to expecting a smaller drop by losing to a good team.

But like Reasoned said, I’m not sure either.

 

[ISUChip]

A 4-4 team winning to become 5-4 is worth .0208 in the "own win%" portion of the formula.
A 5-3 team losing to drop to 5-4 is a loss of -.0261 in that portion.

That's a net swing of .0469 (again, just in that portion of the formula).
The gap between #13 Waukee Northwest and #20 Hempstead is .0437.

 

[Reasoned]

^ So at the end of the day, it’s obviously going to be more advantageous to rely on your W-L but there’s possibly going to be a 4-5 team make it and 5-4 not, can’t conceive of any 6-3 not making it (SC North is currently 5-3 and #22 if they would win, they’d have to be in?).

 

[KidSilverhair]

Sioux City North’s current RPI is .4703. If they gained .0450 … which is about the biggest swing I’ve noticed, although I admit I haven‘t been tracking them all … they’d be at .5153. With nothing else changing, that would put them at 17th in the list, just about .0100 behind 16th.

Of course things will change - for one, we would expect both Roosevelt and Lincoln to lose, opening up a couple of spots in the top 16 - but either Ames or Johnston is going to win Friday, and they’re both already above SC North. A Centennial win could keep them above SC North. It’s technically possible, I suppose, but I think it’s a real long shot for North.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Pod 1

• Johnston at Southeast Polk
• Linn-Mar at Dowling

Pod 2

• Dubuque Senior at Kennedy
• Urbandale at City High

Pod 3

• Ankeny Centennial at Valley West Des Moines
• Cedar Falls at Pleasant Valley

Pod 4

• Bettendorf at Prairie
• Waukee Northwest at Ankeny

 

[Reasoned]

Unless mistaken, this is the first time the PO brackets have been this close to 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15 etc., without concern about geographical considerations, should be interesting to say the least.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Unless mistaken, this is the first time the PO brackets have been this close to 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15 etc., without concern about geographical considerations, should be interesting to say the least.

Yep, the one small change they made was keeping Centennial in the DSM area to play Valley and Dubuque Senior going to Kennedy, instead of sending Senior all the way to West Des Moines and Centennial to Cedar Rapids.

Senior played neck-and-neck with Kennedy a few weeks ago, in a game that was tied after the first, second, and third quarters. Kennedy pulled ahead 28-21 in the fourth and then stopped Senior on downs on the 12-yard line to hold on for that win.