A Quick Look at the Playoff Situation

[KidSilverhair]

I don't spend much time on the 4A boards anymore, but I have a spreadsheet to calculate RPIs for Classes A-4A, and it's about the time when you can figure out district champions fairly easily, so ... hey, why not.

Going into the last week of the season, here's where things stand:

D-1: Dowling Catholic has won the district. The winner of Ankeny-Sioux City East could tie the Maroons if Dowling loses to Sioux City North, but Dowling has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both.

D-2: Ankeny Centennial has won the district. Fort Dodge could tie with a win over Marshalltown plus a Centennial loss to Sioux City West, but Centennial has the head-to-head tiebreaker.

D-3: The winner of Cedar Falls-Cedar Rapids Prairie wins the district.

D-4: Iowa City West has won the district. Pleasant Valley could tie with a win over Linn-Mar plus a West loss to Iowa City High, but West has the head-to-head tiebreaker.

D-5: Bettendorf wins the district with a win over Davenport Central. A Bettendorf loss plus a Cedar Rapids Kennedy win over Burlington results in a three-way tie. Losses by both Bettendorf and Kennedy mean Davenport Central wins the district (head-to-head over Bettendorf).

D-6: The winner of Johnston-Waukee wins the district.

D-7: West Des Moines Valley has won the district. The winner of Ames-Urbandale could tie if Valley loses to Des Moines North, but Valley holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over both.

So how does the playoff field look? Making a few guesses about outcomes this Friday, I'm going with these district champions:

• Dowling
• Centennial
• Cedar Falls
• Iowa City West
• Bettendorf
• Johnston
• Valley

The top 4 RPIs would be Centennial, Valley, Cedar Falls, and Iowa City West. The next 9 by RPI look to be:

• Prairie
• Fort Dodge
• Waukee
• Indianola
• Pleasant Valley
• Ames
• Cedar Rapids Kennedy
• The winner of Sioux City East-Ankeny
• Davenport North

Under this scenario, the first team out would be Southeast Polk.

Should Waukee defeat Johnston to take D-6, Johnston would likely have the 9th best RPI, right behind Prairie. That could also move Valley's RPI up to number 1.

Your potential bracket could look like (I tried to keep the top 4 RPIs apart, so they could all reach the semis; then kinda sorta looked at RPI and geography as well as preventing district rematches in the first round. It's not perfect, I know):

Ames at Ankeny Centennial
Waukee at Dowling Catholic
----
Sioux City East at West Des Moines Valley
Fort Dodge at Johnston
----
----
Cedar Rapids Kennedy at Cedar Falls
Pleasant Valley at Cedar Rapids Prairie
----
Indianola at Iowa City West
Davenport North at Bettendorf

 

[mthawkeyes]

You left out Urbandale.

Simple version, barring major upsets:
Ankeny-Sioux City East winner
Ames-Urbandale winner
Davenport North with win over Muscatine; Southeast Polk if Muscatine wins

If Pleasant Valley is upset by Linn-Mar, they would still be in over Ames if Ames loses, but Urbandale would be in over Pleasant Valley if they lose to Ames.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Yeah, I went too fast and I didn't do the Urbandale defeating Ames scenario. As you say, you could replace Ames with Urbandale in the list if Urbandale beats Ames Friday.

 

[Kraftwerk]

It’s funny. Looking at the schedule months before the season, I said the one game that would tell if East has made any improvement would be against Ankeny. Haven’t seen Ankeny play this year, but looking at their previous scores, they seem to have been somewhat competitive in games against some of the best teams in 4A. East has not, and has been shut out three times this year against Heelan (44-0), Sgt. Bluff (38-0), and Dowling (52-0). Their defense kept them around against both Heelan and Sgt. Bluff until half time, I didn’t see the Dowling game. At least the team will have something to play for Friday night. As will Ankeny. There should be great effort from both sides.

 

[IAHSFOOTBALL]

Great Work!

 

[Kraftwerk]

Great Work!

Lol