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4A Tourney Discussion

EastIowaHawk

All District
Jan 6, 2008
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Just trying to get some discussion going, as the lower classes have several threads. Lots to discuss. Which substate do you think is the toughest? What are your eight teams to make it to state? Which team do you think will win it all when the dust settles? Which two teams will play for the title? What gives certain teams an advantage? Does everybody scout about the same, or do some teams actually just show up and play? Do you think the top seed should have two home games in a row in the substates, when perhaps some lower seeds may now be stronger with kids returning from injuries/illness? I'll wait until some other posters share their ideas. Right now, I'm thinking Cedar Falls may be the horse to put your money on.
 
NWIowaSioux- thanks so much for posting the 4A pairings with the B.C. Moore power ratings, which are important.

In Substate 1 Prairie is listed instead of Sioux City East, but East and Ankeny are the favorites; I'd take Ankeny which played the rougher schedule.
In Substate 2 a very up and down CR Prairie team (with losses even to unranked 3A and 4A teams) will probably meet Dubuque Senior (a young team with six of their top eight players juniors and a soph). This one is Senior's to lose. Two of their three close losses were without their injured point guard.
In Substate 3 I think North Scott is not quite as good as in recent years and CR Kennedy could give them a close game.
Cedar Falls in Substate 4 should prevail, but there are serious landmines in Linn-Mar, Dub. Hempstead and Iowa City Liberty ( a team I thought would be much better this year).
Substate 5 should go to Iowa City West (another team playing much of the year without a star player in Morgan), but should meet schizophrenic Davenport Central, and who knows which DC team will show up?
Substate 6- another substate with lots of quicksand like Johnston, SE Polk and Indianola, but the money goes on Ankeny Centennial
I'd pick Waukee in Substate 7, but they have to get by Valley (which defeated them) and dangerous DM North.
Substate 8 is another grouping with opportunity for upsets. CBAL is having a terrific year, but Urbandale, WDM Dowling and Lewis Central don't care. They just want "at 'em!"

I love the BC Moore rankings, but one factor they don't take into consideration is the high number of sick and injured players on many of the ranked and unranked teams this past season.
 
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Substate 3 clearly looks like the toughest one to get out of, with two top 5 teams in that Substate. Waterloo West vs North Scott should shape up to be the best Substate final.
 
Whoops, I forgot West Waterloo in Substate 3. They would be my favorite over North Scott or CR Kennedy. My bad.
 
My predictions:
1: Ankeny
2: Dbq Senior
3: North Scott
4: CF
5: IC West
6: Centennial
7: Waukee
8: Dowling
 
NWIowaSioux- thanks so much for posting the 4A pairings with the B.C. Moore power ratings, which are important.

In Substate 1 Prairie is listed instead of Sioux City East, but East and Ankeny are the favorites; I'd take Ankeny which played the rougher schedule.
In Substate 2 a very up and down CR Prairie team (with losses even to unranked 3A and 4A teams) will probably meet Dubuque Senior (a young team with six of their top eight players juniors and a soph). This one is Senior's to lose. Two of their three close losses were without their injured point guard.
In Substate 3 I think North Scott is not quite as good as in recent years and CR Kennedy could give them a close game.
Cedar Falls in Substate 4 should prevail, but there are serious landmines in Linn-Mar, Dub. Hempstead and Iowa City Liberty ( a team I thought would be much better this year).
Substate 5 should go to Iowa City West (another team playing much of the year without a star player in Morgan), but should meet schizophrenic Davenport Central, and who knows which DC team will show up?
Substate 6- another substate with lots of quicksand like Johnston, SE Polk and Indianola, but the money goes on Ankeny Centennial
I'd pick Waukee in Substate 7, but they have to get by Valley (which defeated them) and dangerous DM North.
Substate 8 is another grouping with opportunity for upsets. CBAL is having a terrific year, but Urbandale, WDM Dowling and Lewis Central don't care. They just want "at 'em!"

I love the BC Moore rankings, but one factor they don't take into consideration is the high number of sick and injured players on many of the ranked and unranked teams this past season.

Not to hijack a thread, but I'm sort of "meh" on the BC Moore rankings. Another factor in addition to what you stated is they don't seem to put much weight or stock on out-of-state opponents. Keokuk has split with West Hancock, IL who is 20-10 overall and lost a tight game to Monroe City, MO who is 23-2 overall, yet those records aren't reflected in the rankings. I know it's would be taxing to have to follow out-of-state teams in addition to the Iowa teams. I'm not necessarily blaming someone for this not being done, but I would say it's a flaw in the system.
 
Good point about the out-of-state teams, except that the Iowa teams have won the majority of the Iowa vs. out-of-state games this year, I believe (just looking at scores every week). Just because a team is from Illinois (or Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Nebraska) doesn't mean that they are the caliber of the Chicago Public League teams (some of which, because of open-enrollment, are all-star teams). East Dubuque, IL was #1 in their Illinois class last year, and in the top ten this year, but they would get killed (okay-beat) if they played any Dubuque team. They did lose to Pleasant Valley a couple of weeks ago, but PV is way down this year compared to how strong they normally are. I don't think it is worth trying to devise a number to show what a win or a loss to an out-of state team means in something like the BC Moore ratings, which does have some flaws, like you say, and I agree.. After all, you still have to play the game. Also, Illinois has many more classes than Iowa, so it's hard to "categorize" an out-of-state team. At the end of the year the human and computer polls are both pretty accurate. I still think strength of schedule is very important. The bottom line is, when your team shoots 18% and the other team is hotter than the Arizona desert, your team is going to lose, no matter how high they are rated.
 
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