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3A Semi-final Predictions

loco60

Freshman
Sep 15, 2010
708
0
16
Creston vs Bishop Heelan Catholic (I think Creston is the home team)
First game features defending champion SCH versus Creston. What to make of the trends?
Well, SCH had -25 yards rushing and just 8 first downs, but prevailed 14-2 in their semi-final. They have some injuries, but did have a return from illness. Creston can score, and score and score. SCH has been there, done that, with respect to the UNIDome. Creston moves their scoring machine inside. SCH can play defense, even with some personnel down. Creston doesn't bring a record of defense to the dome. This could be a high scoring affair, but I'm picking SCH because of their dome experience and their ability to score with not much offensive output.

Xavier vs Pella (I think Xavier is the home team)
Pella has a talented slippery quarterback. Pella has a few big, fast linemen on offense and defense. Pella strikes quick. Pella has the top ranked defense. Pella has throttled many teams.
Xavier has their leading rusher and captain out. Their fullback and linebacker captain out. Xavier doesn't throttle too many teams. Xavier has a young QB. Xavier defense isn't top ranked, but they are top shelf.
Pella has played two Quarterfinal teams and beat them soundly. Xavier has played the top ranked team in 4A and the top ranked team in 1A and lost both games with limits on offense.
Pella has to be the heavy favorite, but it is hard to pick against the Xavier record in the post-season.
Maybe the most instructive games are the physical context with Carlisle and the late season contest with IC Regina. For Pella, the Carlisle game spawned off a couple of big plays by the defense. For Xavier, the ICR game ended up with a couple of big plays from ICR.
I'll pick injured, worn down, thrice beaten Xavier and wonder if Pella spins the big plays. Pella's best route to winning is to stop the Xavier run game and get lots of offensive possessions. Xavier's best route is to get ahead and then use the stifling defense and some clock consuming drives.
 
Have not seen Xavier play this year, only followed their season from afar.
Last year, Pella had no passing game to go with the skilled runners. That's why they lost to Washington in the quarters.
This year, QB Clayberg has really improve his passing and WR Warner has become a very good route runner and receiver. There are just too many weapons on the offense for Pella. They needed to stay healthy this year (not deep in spots) and they have. They played sloppy against Washington last night (3 TOs, 2 in the red zone, another on a muffed punt at midfield, and some big penalties). I don't think they'll repeat that.

I do think Xavier will move the ball a bit. I don't see either team being held below 21, but I think the Dutch spring enough big plays to win.

If you haven't seen Clayberg, the kid is one of the best pure runners I've seen in a long time. Not sure where he projects in college (not QB), but he is fun to watch.
 
I haven't seen Pella yet this season, but did get to see West Delaware's top-ranked offense against Xavier. I can't imagine there are too many players better at running the football than Coy Roussell. He and Brent Lammers collected some 2300+ yards between them - they are both not only shifty and elusive, but strong and powerful as well.

Why do I bring that up? Roussell (and Lammers, to an extent) ran very well against the Xavier offense. They both would have ended up over 100 yards except for several big sacks of Lammers. Xavier can give up yards - but they have been very good at keeping teams out of the end zone.

I still don't know if Xavier can hang with Pella. They are seriously beat up, with their starting running backs out, and just one of the linebackers that started Week 1 is still on the field (and he's basically got only one good arm). But they impressed me with their guts and grit against an outstanding WD team. I am just hoping for a good contest on Thursday.
 
Pella would easily have the "top-ranked" offense if they would have played their starters more. Pella's starters only played in the second half 6 out of 12 games this year. They do have the top scoring offense in class 3A. They had 3 guys each rush for over 100 yards last night.

Xavier will most likely be the toughest defense that they have faced all year. Should be an interesting battle. Pella's D is also very stout against the run. Nobody has been able to run up the middle yet, but teams do get yards on the edges though.
 
Xavier Dome savvy and tough, period. Won't be surprised you may see the injured step back on the field. Pella should be very concerned as I'm sure they are. Both teams are very, very good. This will be the state Championship game in 3A. The critics all year have been simply comedy.
 
Originally posted by KidSilverhair:
I haven't seen Pella yet this season, but did get to see West Delaware's top-ranked offense against Xavier. I can't imagine there are too many players better at running the football than Coy Roussell. He and Brent Lammers collected some 2300+ yards between them - they are both not only shifty and elusive, but strong and powerful as well.

Why do I bring that up? Roussell (and Lammers, to an extent) ran very well against the Xavier offense. They both would have ended up over 100 yards except for several big sacks of Lammers. Xavier can give up yards - but they have been very good at keeping teams out of the end zone.

I still don't know if Xavier can hang with Pella. They are seriously beat up, with their starting running backs out, and just one of the linebackers that started Week 1 is still on the field (and he's basically got only one good arm). But they impressed me with their guts and grit against an outstanding WD team. I am just hoping for a good contest on Thursday.
I saw that the Lammers kid was 9 for 28 passing -- and you noted he suffered several big sacks. Was he on run b/cause of the Xavier line pressure? Some have indicated Xavier's strength all along has been line play. Not much has been noted about d-back strength/quality? In support of the line quality, I note that Xavier's "next man in" last night rushed for over 100 yards.

And, on a light note, of course you realize all of us out here feel terrible about Xavier's "lack of depth?"
smile.r191677.gif
 
It could be that Pella will be the toughest defense that Xavier has seen. I think West Des Moines Dowling has pretty good creds, that ICR has pretty good creds and that Solon doesn't slack off much either. Western Dubuque had a very good defensive night against Xavier. Maybe Van Gorp and Jansen outmatch the Saints linemen?

Perhaps the difference will be mistakes. In the playoffs Pella has made some mistakes and Xavier has made some mistakes. Physical errors and mental errors. The UNIDome gets loud and can contribute to confusion.

Fumbles and interceptions will happen...that's competition stretching folks. But failure to cover the ball or a blown coverage or improper tackling...those aren't often expected of semi-final football but have been happening.

Maybe Pella brings too many offensive threats to bear for Xavier. We'll see.

On the other game, it seems like scoring will overshadow the defense. Creston certainly rings up points and SCH will have to keep pace.
 
Originally posted by NorseHorse:

I saw that the Lammers kid was 9 for 28 passing -- and you noted he suffered several big sacks. Was he on run b/cause of the Xavier line pressure? Some have indicated Xavier's strength all along has been line play. Not much has been noted about d-back strength/quality? In support of the line quality, I note that Xavier's "next man in" last night rushed for over 100 yards.

And, on a light note, of course you realize all of us out here feel terrible about Xavier's "lack of depth?"
smile.r191677.gif
It was mostly heavy pressure from the Xavier rush, but also some really good coverage downfield. The Xavier D-backs have played really well this season; Dylan Eller has 5 interceptions and Matt Downey has 3. The Saints have also been ballhawks in general. In their first three games, they lost 5 turnovers while forcing 4 takeaways - since then the margin has been 19 to 3 in favor of Xavier.

I do realize Xavier has depth that every other 3A (and plenty of 4A) programs would envy. Losing Eckland and Kortemeyer is still a huge blow. They do have some pretty decent guys who can step in, it's true ... my main concern was only three days to prepare with the new starters facing a dominant team like West Delaware. I guess they did okay.
 
Perhaps the UNIDome scoreboard will be all lit up for the Creston/SCH game and near dark for the CRX/Pella contest. Sure seems like the first contest will be offense oriented and the second contest defense oriented.

Injuries are impacting the two Catholic school entries. Creston should be benefitted from moving indoors as that can help the offense click. Pella seems to be the heavy favorite.

A week of preparation will actually mean a bit of rest and maybe some healing. All of these teams have played 4 games in 14 days, which is only good for the boys in Boone to count their lucre. On other posts there have been statistics offered on the first round contests, as to trends of performance. Perhaps the boys in Boone should release the numbers on gate revenues for that first round.

I guess I'm shifting the thread I began to a Boone bash. Oops.
 
I'm guessing every team good enough to be playing in the semi-finals only played starters half a game in 5 or 6 games.
 
I agree with that, I was just commenting earlier on Pella's offensive numbers with that situation. Wasn't a reflection on any other team still playing. Of course they are all good teams. These are going to be great matchups in the semi's.

I am most curious to see if Heelan's D can limit Creston's O. Creston has given up quite a few points this year, but outscore the opponents to get to this point. Has the makings of a great matchup. Heelan's D in the playoffs have only given up 9 points. That's impressive. Creston has scored 140. That's impressive also. Something's got to give.
 
Maybe UNI's 23-3 win over NDSU sucked up all the good karma from the dome? What if all these teams are flat because of the lack of karma?

Maybe not! :)
 
I think SCH's experience in the dome will prevail. Creston could have timing issues with their passing game and the overall uptick in speed they will see in the Dome. If Creston can hang early they could make it interesting but I expect Heelan to roll.

A healthy CRX would make this a toss up IMO but if you are roughed up, Pella is not the team you want to be playing. Pella will be too physical and defensively stout for this banged up CRX offense to put up enough points to stay ahead of the offensive weapons Pella will field. Pella played a softer schedule and is healthy while CRX may have played too tough of a schedule and lost a little too much along the way.

Predition: Heelan and Pella

Final: Pella



This post was edited on 11/10 8:10 AM by stickman80
 
Originally posted by stickman80:

I think SCH's experience in the dome will prevail. Creston could have timing issues with their passing game and the overall uptick in speed they will see in the Dome. If Creston can hang early they could make it interesting but I expect Heelan to roll.

A healthy CRX would make this a toss up IMO but if you are roughed up, Pella is not the team you want to be playing. Pella will be too physical and defensively stout for this banged up CRX offense to put up enough points to stay ahead of the offensive weapons Pella will field. Pella played a softer schedule and is healthy while CRX may have played too tough of a schedule and lost a little too much along the way.

Predition: Heelan and Pella

Final: Pella




This post was edited on 11/10 8:10 AM by stickman80
Do you think Pella has more offensive weapons than West Delaware? CRX may be banged up but they still put up 27 on WD with backups in...
 
Yea, I know. That is a pretty amazing rushing average over an entire season. Murphy and Clayberg are both very good runners, but I think a great deal of the credit goes to the line. Pella's line isn't huge, by any means, but are explosive and block down the field very well. I heard an interview with DCG's coach earlier this year after Pella downed them and he commented that his safeties have never been blocked by O Linemen so much in their lives. They get down field well. The right side of the line is the strong side. The G and T are pretty big on that side (250 lb guard (committed to D1 Cincinnati) and 260 lb tackle). Left side and center are smaller.

Henry is the power back and is a north-south runner. Clayberg is just a like a video game runner in that he is very fast, strong, cuts on a dime, and is tough to bring down. Murphy is the explosive one who gets lots of long runs as the change of pace runner. Pella will lull you to concentrating on Clayberg and then Murphy hits on the left side and has had many long TD runs this year. I have no idea how many scoring drives Pella has had this year of 3 plays or less, but they have had a bunch.

Still, I'm sure Pella hasn't seen a defense like Xavier's this year. Pella has beaten some good teams, but this is the next level. It's going to be great to see how these two teams match-up. The trenches will decide the game. If Pella can run the ball, I think it will be tough sledding for Xavier. Conversely, if Xavier can run the ball then I like their chances. They need to wear down the Pella defense as many of the Dutch play both ways. If both teams can run the ball, then, who knows! If it turns into a shootout though, will be tough for Xavier to keep up with Pella.
 
I have not seen West Delaware play, but I have seen Pella play they have great athletes on both sides of the ball. With three explosive runner,s they have been able to use the entire line of scrimmage and are capable of breaking big plays everytime either of the backs touch the ball. The passing game has been very effective when it has been used. It is very difficult for defenses because they cannot key on one back or one gap.

No doubt in my mind that CRX will present the biggest challenge that Pella has faced this year and it will be a tough game. Pella will have to play their best game and keep their turnovers to a mimum. I like Pella chances.
 
Originally posted by Greyhound Forever:
I have not seen West Delaware play, but I have seen Pella play they have great athletes on both sides of the ball. With three explosive runner,s they have been able to use the entire line of scrimmage and are capable of breaking big plays everytime either of the backs touch the ball. The passing game has been very effective when it has been used. It is very difficult for defenses because they cannot key on one back or one gap.

No doubt in my mind that CRX will present the biggest challenge that Pella has faced this year and it will be a tough game. Pella will have to play their best game and keep their turnovers to a minimum. I like Pella's chances.
Xavier presents a very aggressive, physical front, but I do think that Pella's line can contend and battle there in the trenches. Should be quite a head banger... Wouldn't it be interesting if the game came down to the d-back and receiver performances? Run support, coverage on D and blocking, running smart and sharp routes on O.
 
Good job bro, looks like you nailed it last night but I'm not sure a healthy Xavier would have been able to stop Pella.


stickman80 posted on 11/10/2014...

I think SCH's experience in the dome will prevail. Creston could have timing issues with their passing game and the overall uptick in speed they will see in the Dome. If Creston can hang early they could make it interesting but I expect Heelan to roll.

A healthy CRX would make this a toss up IMO but if you are roughed up, Pella is not the team you want to be playing. Pella will be too physical and defensively stout for this banged up CRX offense to put up enough points to stay ahead of the offensive weapons Pella will field. Pella played a softer schedule and is healthy while CRX may have played too tough of a schedule and lost a little too much along the way.

Prediction: Heelan and Pella

Final: Pella






This post was edited on 11/14 5:55 AM by ghost80
 
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