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3A Playoff predictions

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fmclonefan

Freshman
Nov 21, 2006
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Well, decided to try and go all Screwloose and see what I could come up with. This is more difficult then I thought it would be, but here are some somewhat educated, or not, guesses. I have listed my prediction for the final district standings and the district records.

D1:

Is fairly straightforward, especially at the top. The big game will be next week with BH- Rock Valley at LeMars. Good chance that will decide the 3 and 4 spots in the playoff race.

1. Heelan 6-0
2. Sergeant Bluff-Luton 5-1
3. LeMars 3-3
4. Boyden Hull-Rock Valley 3-3
5. Spencer 2-4
6. Denison-Schleswig 2-4
7. Storm Lake 0-6

D2:

Carroll in driver's seat. This week's Greene County -- Perry game has some big implications. Perry can play way in or out of playoffs with GC this week and Webster City next week.

1. Carroll 6-0
2. Humboldt 5-1
3. Greene County 4-2
4. Webster City 3-3
5. Perry 2-4
6. Boone 1-5
7. Algona 0-6

D3:

Decorah at Charles City next week is tough game to pick. Went with the Vikings tradition in my picks. The top four teams are pretty well set, but the order of the bottom two is yet to be determined.

1. West Deleware 6-0
2. Waverly-Shell Rock 5-1
3. Decorah 4-2
4. Charles City 3-3
5. Independence 2-4
6. Vinton-Shellsburg 1-5
7. Crestwood, Cresco 0-6

D4:

Wow, what a great district. Western Dubuque threw a bit of a monkey wrench into the race last week, but will still probably end up third. Caveat is if they can beat Solon. If they beat Solon then they should win district. Guessing that isn't going to happen though. Xavier still in driver's seat otherwise as they would win three way point diff average tie breaker. Solon should finish with a higher one then WDubuque also.

1. Cedar Rapids Xavier 5-1
2. Solon 5-1
3. Western Dubuque, Epworth 5-1
4. Dubuque Wahlert 3-3
5. Central Clinton, DeWitt 2-4
6. Maquoketa 1-5
7. Marion 0-6

D5:

This district is very top heavy. Assumption is the dominate team, but do still have to play at CCA and Washington. As Western Dubuque showed last week, you never know... but I'm guessing DA will take both. CCA nipped Washington 20-17 earlier this year to get the edge for second place. Fairfield and Mount Pleasant playing tomorrow night for the last playoff spot.

1. Davenport Assumption 6-0
2. Clear Creek-Amana 5-1
3. Washington 4-2
4. Fairfield 3-3
5. Mount Pleasant 2-4
6. Fort Madison 1-5
7. Keokuk 0-6

D6:

Excellent district race that is probably the most wide open of all of them. Newton beating Ballard last Friday was a huge win for them and puts them in the driver's seat. Bondurant can play themselves in or out the next two weeks. They have Ballard and then at Newton. Not sure if they have the horses to win those games. Also, Gilbert has the easiest district schedule left. The game against Grinnell next week is big. They also have Benton and Nevada left.

1. Newton 5-1
2. Ballard 5-1
3. Gilbert 4-2
4. Grinnell 3-3
5. Bondurant-Farrar 3-3
6. Benton Community 1-5
7. Nevada 0-6

D7:

This one is set for the top three. Last spot will most likely be determined tomorrow night with the winner of Knoxville-Chariton getting it.

1. Pella 6-0
2. Carlisle 5-1
3. Norwalk 4-2
4. Knoxville 3-3
5. Chariton 2-4
6. Oskaloosa 1-5
7. Saydel 0-6

D8:

Interesting district as well. DCG has been dominating last few weeks. Next week they go to Creston to determine the district champ. Is very wierd to not put Harlan up there.

1. Dallas Center-Grimes 6-0
2. Creston 5-1
3. Winterset 4-2
4. ADM, Adel 3-3
5. Harlan 2-4
6. Atlantic 1-5
7. Glenwood 0-6

First Round Guesses (and I mean guesses...):

Boyden Hull/RV @ Heelan, Sioux City
LeMars @ Sergeant Bluff-Luton
ADM @ Carroll
Winterset @ Carlisle
Greene County @ Creston
Knoxville @ Newton
Gilbert @ Humboldt
Webster City @ Dallas Center-Grimes
Charles City @ Cedar Rapids Xavier
Decorah @ Clear Creek-Amana
Western Dubuque @ Waverly-Shell Rock
Dubuque Wahlert @ West Delaware
Washington @ Solon
Grinnell @ Davenport Assumption
Norwalk @ Ballard
Fairfield @ Pella

I tried to make as many games as interdistrict as possible. Unfortunately for District 1, is pretty tough to do with the 125 mile trip rule. In fact, that is the only district that I couldn't do it for. The longest travel game is Grinnell at Assumption and that pushes the 125 mile radius, but is still barely in it.

I've decided that I must have too much time on my hands today....
This post was edited on 10/9 12:06 PM by fmclonefan
 
Here is what I came up with there are a few different finishes in there as well

Heelan vs. Harlan
Carroll vs. LeMars
West Delaware vs. Webster City (.6 miles over)
Xavier vs. Decorah
Assumption vs. Wahlert
Newton vs. Norwalk
Pella vs. Fairfield
DCG vs. BF

SBL vs. BHRV
Humboldt vs. CC
WSR vs. Western Dubuque
Solon vs. Washington
CCA vs. Grinnell
Ballard vs. Greene County
Carlisle vs Winterset
Creston vs. Chariton

I tried to not have any district games, it is hard to send BHRV anywhere though, it is more likely that you would see West Del vs. Wahlert, but that means that Assumption would only be able to play Fairfield, although I guess Assumption played Wahlert already as well, but in my mind it just makes more sense to send Fairfield to Pella or Newton.

A lot of guesstimation here as well.

This post was edited on 10/9 11:45 AM by PNation
 
Huh, those were written on there at one time. Not sure what the heck happened to them. I'll edit the above post to put them back in. Thanks for noticing.
 
Gilbert has to beat Grinnell this to have a chance and I do not know by how many points. Ballard still has to play Grinnell as well. If Grinnell wins that the gilbert game it puts gilbert out of the playoff hunt.The last game for Bondurant before the play off begins is a Non-District game against Winterset. What would happen if Bondurant beats Newton My friend said Highly unlikely But then how does that play and I thought it was district vs district. it all depends on what harppens with Newton and BF game and the Grinnell and Gilbert game. I gilbert wins the Grinnell and Newton wins the BF game It will be most likely like this This districts won't be decide until the end week wi


1:Newton
2:Ballard
3Grinnell
4:BF
This is if everyone wins But if Grinnell beats ballard
It could end up in points and as of now it this right now Base on points standing
it like this

1. BF with 5.80 points
2. Grinnell with 5.25 points
3.Ballard with 4.50 points
4. Newton with 2.50 points

What would really screw thing up if Bondurant beats Newton this Friday. Then the District is a mess again and Good lucky figure out that.
 
You're right, a lot of unknowns in District 6. As you said, two big games this week with Newton vs Bondurant-Farrar and Gilbert vs Grinnell, then next week it's Grinnell vs Ballard. I don't know very much about those teams, but just going with my gut I have Grinnell losing both games and Newton winning, which by my ciphering makes the finish Newton-Ballard-Gilbert-Grinnell. Newton gets the district title head to head over Ballard and Grinnell takes fourth head to head over Bondurant-Farrar. Again, just my gut feeling.

The big game in District 1 is Boyden Hull-Rock Valley vs LeMars. Again, my gut says BHRV, so that district should finish Heelan-Sergeant Bluff Luton-BHRV-LeMars, with LeMars taking a three-way tie for fourth on points.

District 2 is fairly well set. I expect Carroll will defeat Greene County, so that should end up Carroll-Humboldt-Greene County-Perry.

District 3 is another full of questions. I have Charles City losing to both Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock, and Decorah losing to West Delaware. I could easily be wrong on any of them. If it goes that way, the district finishes West Delaware-Waverly She'll Rock-Decorah-Independence.

I think Solon will beat Western Dubuque this Friday, which sets up a three-way tie in District 4. On points, the finish would be Xavier-Solon-Western Dubuque-Dubuque Wahlert.

How will Assumption finish in District 5 after losing to Clear Creek-Amana? My gut, again, says they defeat both Fairfield and Washington ... that Assumption-Washington game should be a good one. If my gut doesn't steer me wrong, you'll have Clear Creek Amana-Assumption-Washington-Fairfield.

If Carlisle downs Chariton, District 7 works out with Pella-Carlisle-Norwalk-Knoxville.

In District 8, the huge game for the district title comes Friday with Dallas Center-Grimes vs Creston. I'm leaning Dallas Center in this one. Also I'm thinking Harlan manages to knock off ADM-Adel, so the standings would be Dallas Center Grimes-Creston-Winterset-Harlan.

And so, my wild-eyed guesses at first-round matchups, with little regard to reality or hard evidence: (in addition, I didn't actually run the distances here to see if I'm violating the 125-mile restriction with any of these. If I am, you are welcome to point out the foolish error of my ways.)

1 vs 4
Perry at Heelan
LeMars at Carroll
Wahlert at West Delaware
Fairfield at Xavier
Independence at Clear Creek Amana
Knoxville at Newton
Grinnell at Pella
Harlan at Dallas Center Grimes

2 vs 3
Greene County at Sergeant Bluff Luton
Boyden Hull Rock Valley at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly Shell Rock
Decorah at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Winterset at Ballard
Washington at Carlisle
Norwalk at Creston

Please, ladies and gentlemen - no wagering.
 
The picture gets clear as you look at 2nd round survivors, then the final eight and final four, using some editing techniques and, of course, making presumptions about pairings that may not materialize.
D1:
1. Heelan final 4 team
2. Sergeant Bluff-Luton
3. LeMars
4. Boyden Hull-Rock Valley
5. Spencer
6. Denison-Schleswig
7. Storm Lake

D2:
1. Carroll
2. Humboldt
3. Greene County
4. Webster City
5. Perry
6. Boone
7. Algona

D3:
1. West Delaware final 4 team
2. Waverly-Shell Rock
3. Decorah
4. Charles City
5. Independence
6. Vinton-Shellsburg
7. Crestwood, Cresco

D4:
1. Cedar Rapids Xavier final 4 team
2. Solon final 4 team
3. Western Dubuque, Epworth
4. Dubuque Wahlert
5. Central Clinton, DeWitt
6. Maquoketa
7. Marion

D5:
1. Davenport Assumption
2. Clear Creek-Amana
3. Washington
4. Fairfield
5. Mount Pleasant
6. Fort Madison
7. Keokuk

D6:
1. Newton
2. Ballard
3. Gilbert
4. Grinnell
5. Bondurant-Farrar
6. Benton Community
7. Nevada

D7:
1. Pella
2. Carlisle
3. Norwalk
4. Knoxville
5. Chariton
6. Oskaloosa
7. Saydel

D8:
1. Dallas Center-Grimes
2. Creston
3. Winterset
4. ADM, Adel
5. Harlan
6. Atlantic
7. Glenwood
 
loco, I like your final 8 teams, but I don't think the pairings could happen that would allow Xavier, Solon, and West Delaware to all get to the dome. If those 8 were indeed the last ones standing, depending on the earlier round pairings, then I would guess that the quarterfinal games would be:

--Heelan vs. Carroll
--Creston vs. Carlisle
--Solon vs. Pella
--Xavier vs. West Delaware

As that geographically makes for the least amount of travel.
 
So I did go back and check my mileages on my earlier first-round predictions. I did pretty good, but there were some that were way off there.

A couple of issues in my predicted finishes: there are no cross-district opponents for the 2-3 games in District 1 and 2 that are within the 125 mile limit. If they finish the way I have them, I think there is no choice but for the state to do district rematches for those two games. Also, Assumption is a huge outlier for the 2-3 matchup. The only reasonable opponent is Western Dubuque, which would force Decorah to make a 123-mile trip to Solon.

Here's my updated list:

4 vs 1 --- Harlan @ Heelan
Le Mars @ Carroll
Wahlert @ West Delaware
Grinnell @ Xavier (could still be Fairfield, could work either way)
Independence @ Clear Creek Amana
Knoxville @ Newton
Fairfield @ Pella (again, Grinnell could go here instead)
Perry @ Dallas Center Grimes

3 vs 2 --- Boyden Hull Rock Valley @ Sergeant Bluff Luton (district rematch)
Greene County @ Humboldt (district rematch)
Gilbert @Waverly Shell Rock
Decorah @ Solon (123 miles town-to-town by Google Maps)
Western Dubuque @ Davenport Assumption
Winterset @ Ballard
Washington @ Carlisle
Norwalk @ Creston
 
D6:
1. Newton
2. Ballard
3. Gilbert
4. Grinnell
5. Bondurant-Farrar
6. Benton Community
7. Nevada





I do not see Newton finishing strong in their last two games.
Click to expand...
 
From google maps:

SBL to Greene Countyvia IA-141 E and U.S. 30 E2 h 19 min124 miles



BHRV to Humboldt
via IA-3 E2 h 30 min126 miles2 h 29 min without traffic · Show traffic[/URL]2 h 15 min without traffic · Show traffic[/URL]
 
State doesn't care about distance, Solon went to Decorah 2 years in a row (123 mi, 2 hours 19 mins) as well with Cresco coming to Solon (143 mi, 2 hours 26 mins). Same with how they put Xavier vs Dowling (127 mi, 1 hour 51 mins) for one of their non-district games.

I am sure there are several others out West that do the same if not more travel.


Oh well.
 
This is true, Vroom. However, the state now has a clearly stated rule regarding a 125-mile travel area, where they didn't before. This is going to be more pertinent to First and Second Round games where travel happens on a school night(Wednesday and Monday). The rule will be a lot harder to enforce come the Quarterfinals as teams will be more stretched out, in theory, but that round will be played on a Friday so there's a lot less concern since there's no rush to get home for school the following day.
 
Originally posted by Vroom_C14:

State doesn't care about distance, Solon went to Decorah 2 years in a row (123 mi, 2 hours 19 mins) as well with Cresco coming to Solon (143 mi, 2 hours 26 mins). Same with how they put Xavier vs Dowling (127 mi, 1 hour 51 mins) for one of their non-district games.
Click to expand...
The state does claim to care about distance now, at least for the first round of playoffs. Right in their postseason manual is a flat 125-mile travel limit for first-round games (for all classes except 4A, that is). They even say district rematches might occur if that's the only way to prevent a game between schools over 125 miles apart.

Here's an interesting note they add about that:



Please Note: The Football Advisory Committee recommended and the IHSAA Board of Control agreed that all
attempts be made to avoid district rematches as infrequently as possible. With that concept in mind, please
remember that your school may travel a further distance, within the 125 limitation, in order for district rematches not
to occur. For example, you may have a district crossover contest that is 65 miles away, but two other schools will be
playing a district rematch. In order to eliminate the district rematch, your school may travel 110 miles, 45 more miles,
but within the 125 limitation, in order to avoid as many district rematches as possible.

For the second round it's only a "reasonable distance" limitation.

So will they abide by their own rules? If BHRV to Humboldt is 126 travel miles, will they scrap that and schedule a district rematch instead, to avoid over 125 travel miles? I guess we'll see.


This post was edited on 10/16 10:36 AM by KidSilverhair

This post was edited on 10/16 10:37 AM by KidSilverhair
 
Originally posted by screwloose:
This is true, Vroom. However, the state now has a clearly stated rule regarding a 125-mile travel area, where they didn't before. This is going to be more pertinent to First and Second Round games where travel happens on a school night(Wednesday and Monday). The rule will be a lot harder to enforce come the Quarterfinals as teams will be more stretched out, in theory, but that round will be played on a Friday so there's a lot less concern since there's no rush to get home for school the following day.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was thinking that mileage limit applied to both first and second round, but in reviewing the postseason manual the 125-mile limit is only listed for first round games. They do hold open the possibility of district rematches in the second round in order to prevent travel beyond a "reasonable distance." Whatever "reasonable" means to the IAHSAA.

Remember, this is the same group that scheduled a Marshalltown at Sioux City regular season game on a Thursday night a couple of years ago. That's really looking out for the students ...
 
Since round #2 is on a Monday night, I'd think they would "unofficially" place a 125 mile trip ban on as well. If they do it for the first round, they would almost have to do it for the second round as well unless there is an outlier matchup in which there is on choice but of longer travel. This would probably be most applicable to NW Iowa schools, depending on what match-ups occur. The rest of Iowa should have matchups readily available that are interdistrict and reasonably close in mileage.
 
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