2A D4 - Now It Gets Interesting

[UnionFootballFan]

Comparing the "Top 3" that will be playing each other over the coming three weeks.

Sources: Quick Stats Iowa, BCMoore; note: Waukon's 6th game stats not included, will update this once available.

Scoring (Pts. For):
Union - 306 (#1 in 2A)
NFV - 224 (#6 in 2A)
Waukon - 213 (#8 in 2A)

Scoring (Pts. Against):
Union - 2.17 (#1 in 2A)
NFV - 6.5 (#2 in 2A)
Waukon - 10.5 (#5 in 2A)

Rushing:
Union - 1,695 yards, 8.5 YPC
NFV - 1,586 yards, 6.5 YPC
Waukon - 821 yards, 5.5 YPC*

Passing:
Union - 862 yards, 17.6 YPC, 71% completion percentage, 7 TD, 4 INT
Waukon - 840 yards, 15.3 YPC, 55% completion percentage, 10 TD 6 INT*
NFV - 599 yards, 25.0 YPC, 52% completion percentage, 7 TD, 4 INT

Kicking:
Union - 40/42 XPs 95%, No FGs made, 6 touchbacks
NFV - 24/26 XPs 92%, No FGs made, 0 touchbacks
Waukon - 1/2 XPs 50%, No FGs made, 1 touchback*

Kick-Off Returns:
Waukon - 22 YPR*
Union - 21 YPR
NFV - 19 YPR

Punting:
Waukon - 37 YPP*
Union - 36 YPP
NFV - 34 YPP

Punt Returns:
NFV - 24 YPR
Waukon - 23 YPR*
Union - 8 YPR

Defense
Waukon - 15 INTs, 9 fumble recoveries, #8 in pts. allowed for 2A*
Union - 9 INTs, 5 fumble recoveries, #1 in pts. allowed for 2A
NFV - 5 INTs, 5 fumble recoveries, #6 in pts. allowed for 2A

SOS
NFV - #28
Waukon - #30
Union - #47

Summary:
-Union statistical advantage in points scored, points allowed, rushing yards, passing yards*, and kicking
-NFV statistical advantage in punt returns and SOS
-Waukon statistical advantage in kick-off returns, punt returns, turnovers

Vs Like Opponents:
Monticello: Union (+36), NFV (+55), Waukon (+38)
Oelwein: Union (+62), NFV (+43)
Beckman: Union (+35), NFV (+35), Waukon (+25)
Cascade: NFV (+20), Waukon (+6)
Columbus: Waukon (+36), Union (+69)

Union vs. NFV against like opponents: Even
Union vs. Waukon against like opponents: Union +41
Waukon vs. NFV against like opponents: NFV +41

Thoughts/Questions:
-Union has the stats, but has done so against a weaker schedule. Can this continue over the next three weeks when they play @Waukon*, @NFV, and vs. Cascade? Union definitely has the toughest path remaining.
-Waukon's Defense can turn the ball over - can NFV and Union protect the ball well enough? Turnovers will be key in those games.

My Predication...
I put more weight on performance against like opponents than stats, especially considering the SOS variation between the three teams.
-Union vs. Waukon - Picking Union in a close game; turnovers will determine winner.
-Union vs. NFV - Coin-flip; both teams seem very even. Picking Union since I'm a Union fan.
-NFV vs. Waukon - Picking NFV.

 

[dirt33]

Very good post Union Fan. What Union has been doing is very impressive. I know the competition level hasn't been the highest, but still, I don't care who you play, 13 points allowed in 6 games is unreal. (Side note, check out Van Meter in 1-A for an even more absurd defensive showing). This Friday night will of course show a lot, as Union hasn't really been challenged thus far. I don't know whether to think that Union will win by 7, or if they will go off on a 48-8 rampage like NFV did last year in the regular season against Waukon (for the record, I certainly don't expect that kind of outcome, but I just think that Union will be too much for Waukon to handle).

Union at NFV in two weeks seems to be about as much of a tossup as you can get at this point. Union certainly has a meat grinder to go through to end the regular season.

 

[QB69]

I think that it will come down to the heart of the players, stats do not matter to me. These teams all have different styles, and we will see how they work when they go up against each other and talk after. The kids know that this is go time in the season and every down will be a fight.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Now it looks like Columbus is going to forfeit against NFV. That gives NFV extra time to prep for Union while Union will be coming off a physical game against Waukon. Tough situation to be in, but it is what it is.

 

[dirt33]

Now it looks like Columbus is going to forfeit against NFV. That gives NFV extra time to prep for Union while Union will be coming off a physical game against Waukon. Tough situation to be in, but it is what it is.

Interesting. Do you have any idea as to the reason for the forfeit?

 

[nwmsbearcat]

Interesting. Do you have any idea as to the reason for the forfeit?

"Down to only a dozen healthy varsity players, the Sailors have announced they will forfeit Friday's scheduled home game against top-ranked and undefeated North Fayette Valley."

http://wcfcourier.com/sports/high-s...cle_7a8a879c-898e-5e80-902d-9db7a7169133.html

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Interesting. Do you have any idea as to the reason for the forfeit?

Apparently they had 16 players, but due to injury they only had 12 healthy this week. Didn't want to "play up" fresh/sophs due to the risk of injury against a physical NFV team.

 

[dirt33]

"Down to only a dozen healthy varsity players, the Sailors have announced they will forfeit Friday's scheduled home game against top-ranked and undefeated North Fayette Valley."

http://wcfcourier.com/sports/high-s...cle_7a8a879c-898e-5e80-902d-9db7a7169133.html

Thanks for the link.

 

[dirt33]

Apparently they had 16 players, but due to injury they only had 12 healthy this week. Didn't want to "play up" fresh/sophs due to the risk of injury against a physical NFV team.

Thanks for the info Union Fan.

 

[QB69]

Sounds to me like a tough situation for NFV, taking a week off may take them out of rhythm, they've already had enough down time while only having their starters play one half in 2 of the last 3 games.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Sounds to me like a tough situation for NFV, taking a week off may take them out of rhythm, they've already had enough down time while only having their starters play one half in 2 of the last 3 games.

So a potential for NFV "rust" from lack of action and potential for Union "tiredness" from playing a tough Waukon team. Yet another toss up factor coming into this game. Personally, I would rather have the rest, but I'm old. ;-)

 

[QB69]

So a potential for NFV "rust" from lack of action and potential for Union "tiredness" from playing a tough Waukon team. Yet another toss up factor coming into this game. Personally, I would rather have the rest, but I'm old. ;-)

I totally agree with you that Union will have the tire from a physical game against a robust Waukon team, but at this point in the season I think most players are used to the week off. I expect a very good, hard fought game between two well prepared and diligent teams. Looking ahead to it, along with the results of the Week 7 match ups.

 

[walkingstick24]

I totally agree with you that Union will have the tire from a physical game against a robust Waukon team, but at this point in the season I think most players are used to the week off. I expect a very good, hard fought game between two well prepared and diligent teams. Looking ahead to it, along with the results of the Week 7 match ups.

I wouldn't say robust but we will go with it.

 

[jen44]

So a potential for NFV "rust" from lack of action and potential for Union "tiredness" from playing a tough Waukon team. Yet another toss up factor coming into this game. Personally, I would rather have the rest, but I'm old. ;-)

I've always thought that playing a tough game will prepare you down the road a lot better than blowing a team out or having a "bye" week. I give the early advantage to Union at this point.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

A little clearer, but still a lot to play out.

Union 37, Waukon 16 a final.

Cascade's win keeps their hopes alive.