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2022 Soccer Season

First day of the 2022 soccer season today. Thoughts on the season? Hoping for some good discussion this year.
My bold prediction is that Prairie has a worse regular season, but actually qualifies for state, beating an improved Jefferson in the substate final this time (if their excellent wingbacks stay healthy). My boy played with a bunch of the Prairie guys this winter in indoor high school invitational camps. They were raw but had that cleverness on offense that previous Prairie teams lacked.
 
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So, there were at least 2 scrimmages yesterday, Several on tap for tomorrow and Friday.

I'm sure the newspapers will have their season previews some time after the first week of competition.
 
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How are teams looking this spring after some scrimmages?
Looks like several scores missing in VB from the scrimmages, and I know you can't rely much on scores from scrimmages as coaches may be using them to try out different approaches, roster combinations etc.

I watched the City/Regina scrimmage and thought Regina held well especially first half, lots of good individual athletic effort. Regina seemed to be reacting to City's strength and trying to "hang on" more than battle toe-to-toe, but I think it gave coaches lots of good stuff to work on in terms of controlling style of play. They're going to be a good side - not making any bold predictions

Looking at scrimmage scores, the only one that jumps out at me is the Columbus/VS match. Columbus had looked pretty good on paper - I had them as my preseason number 6. So, seeing them drop a 2-0 match to VS was a little surprising (not taking anything away from VS) Will be interesting to watch as we move into regular season.
 
Regina was missing several starters in that scrimmage due to a retreat. And, had only had a couple of days of outdoor practice as a team. West Liberty scrimmaged City the day before, which resulted in an almost identical score. Not sure what to expect this season in 1A. I'd say Burlington/ND is the clear front runner, with the usual suspects on their heels (Beckman, Regina, W. Liberty, Columbus, Assumption, etc.).
 
Regina was missing several starters in that scrimmage due to a retreat. And, had only had a couple of days of outdoor practice as a team. West Liberty scrimmaged City the day before, which resulted in an almost identical score. Not sure what to expect this season in 1A. I'd say Burlington/ND is the clear front runner, with the usual suspects on their heels (Beckman, Regina, W. Liberty, Columbus, Assumption, etc.).

What happened? Never like to see a long winning streak against Solon end.
 
Solon is pretty damn good this year. 9 seniors on the team.

That coupled with the fact that regina has talent but has no identity with this team led to that result. Think it's going to be a long season for regina. Killer schedule and they've yet to play a game with all their starters due to conflicts and injury. I'll go out on a limb and say they finish below 500 if they play their full schedule. Prairie up next. They won't have a full team for that game either. Score could end up 10-0 prairie.
 
Regina’s schedule is tough. At Solon, at North Scott, at CR Prairie is a real challenge to start the season. The Solon game is the only of those that you’d expect them to win. But, I think Solon has one of their best teams this year.
Solon vs Xavier would be a great match to watch.
 
Solon is pretty damn good this year. 9 seniors on the team.

That coupled with the fact that regina has talent but has no identity with this team led to that result. Think it's going to be a long season for regina. Killer schedule and they've yet to play a game with all their starters due to conflicts and injury. I'll go out on a limb and say they finish below 500 if they play their full schedule. Prairie up next. They won't have a full team for that game either. Score could end up 10-0 prairie.
I don't know about a 0-10 vs Prairie. It's an incredibly tough match, but I don't know about a mercy rule loss. I mean history doesn't mean much to any given team, but since Varsity Bound records (2011 season) Regina's worst loss was 0-5, which has happened twice (3 times now)

I don't know why they wouldn't play their whole schedule, other than the scattered weather cancellations, but I think it's highly probable that they finish under 500. It's a tough schedule. Coach Larew has never shy'd away from tough schedules/opponents. This team might find their identity by losing those tough matches. If they go under 500 regular season, I still wouldn't count them out for State (and my comments are based on Coach Larew's ability to build with what he has and also based on not having seen them at full strength or against a 1A side yet.) They have a lot of work ahead - The good thing about soccer is the season starts over at the post season.
 
First game for the GCGR Rebels. Nice 6-2 win vs Columbus. Rebels could make some noise this year. Experienced group. Goalie will be their biggest issue
Nice start for GCGR, off to a 2-0 start with some really decisive wins.

Anybody know what's up with Columbus? I know they lost 8 seniors, but they had a lot of goal scoring from underclassmen. I figured this team was going to rebound from their senior losses better. Is this a team that's going to take some time to mature?
 
I don't know about a 0-10 vs Prairie. It's an incredibly tough match, but I don't know about a mercy rule loss. I mean history doesn't mean much to any given team, but since Varsity Bound records (2011 season) Regina's worst loss was 0-5, which has happened twice (3 times now)

I don't know why they wouldn't play their whole schedule, other than the scattered weather cancellations, but I think it's highly probable that they finish under 500. It's a tough schedule. Coach Larew has never shy'd away from tough schedules/opponents. This team might find their identity by losing those tough matches. If they go under 500 regular season, I still wouldn't count them out for State (and my comments are based on Coach Larew's ability to build with what he has and also based on not having seen them at full strength or against a 1A side yet.) They have a lot of work ahead - The good thing about soccer is the season starts over at the post season.
Agreed. Think there has definitely been a fire lit by Rick this week with the kids. And based on early scores, it looks like Prairie might not be as good as I thought.
 
Agreed. Think there has definitely been a fire lit by Rick this week with the kids. And based on early scores, it looks like Prairie might not be as good as I thought.
Or is West that good?

Prairie ended up with the 6-0 win, but it was 2-0 at half with those first goals score late in the first half, so to me that shows something about Regina's potential as a team. They travel to Hillcrest Academy today for their first 1A matchup.
 
So, rankings came out last weekend.

It looks like the Soccer Coaches association rankings have changed and they are simply adopting the "Bound ELO" ranking:


The rationale appears to be to achieve a fairer view of success against relative strength of schedule, but by their own commentary, it really doesn't reflect strength very accurately until 6-7 weeks into the season. The regular soccer season is what, 8 weeks?

So, essentially, the soccer coaches association is getting out of the ranking business, which probably rids them of some headaches. In the end, rankings should probably be media polls, like other sports. There just isn't enough coverage by the press (where the press still exists) to make that a meaningful process. So, there's really no reason to look at the Coaches association, just look at the Bound rankings and know that scores are to be updated each Sunday, so Monday morning is an apples to apples comparison day.

I guess the only "good" thing that might come out of this process would be if the state adopts this as the seeding mechanism instead of the 1,2,3, point system.
 
....that being said, I don't understand Bound's "Schedule Rank" Component

When you look at the 1A school with the Highest Schedule Rank component, to me that means they play the toughest schedule. Clarke is currently in that position with a "5" Schedule Rank, yet they play no 3A teams (and maybe no 2A, it's tough to tell) and the average ranking of their opponents is 99.3

I picked out a couple other schools for comparison, WBND has a schedule Rank of "57" and their opponents average ranking is 95.6 - so higher than the 5 Schedule strength team?

To add another example Mid Prairie has the number 100 schedule rank and their opponent's average is 102.3

I don't think it plays into the ELO ranking, (which I would think that it would, some recognition of giving more points to a win over a quality opponent) so, I wonder why it even exists. I think the calculation do end up giving you pretty good results after 6-7 weeks, but pretty useless until then.

As I said above for state seeding, maybe these numbers would be reliable enough to use (along with geography?) for substate brakceting/ seeding?
 
It's a joke at this point in the season. I'd be willing to bet that only 3 or 4 of the "ranked" 1A teams even make it to state. Season will bear itself out and you have to beat the best to be the best but this certainly punishes teams for playing a tough (playing up a class and scheduling quality in class opponents) schedule.

Biggest issue I see is that you are going to have teams hosting playoff games that are clearly the inferior team. We'll see how it shakes out but with any AI, you have to have a quantity of quality data in order for it to work.
 
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Agreed. Think there has definitely been a fire lit by Rick this week with the kids. And based on early scores, it looks like Prairie might not be as good as I thought.
Interesting that West debut's as number 11 in 3A, Prairie number 12.....

As discussed above, I don't know that these rankings tell us much right now, but it's probably a little clearer in 3A (since playing up class doesn't have any impact on the ranking W/L under consideration.) Being on this list is better than not being on it. But I have a hard time imagining Valley, last year's runner-up falling to 32nd in 3A. That doesn't feel very real.
 
Didn't realize that's how they generated the most recent rankings. And, the system seems flawed to the point it's worthless. They don't even have the defending 1A champion ranked, which is ridiculous.
The coaches should be putting the ranking together, not a computer. They have better insight into the nuances of the season than a computer.
 
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Didn't realize that's how they generated the most recent rankings. And, the system seems flawed to the point it's worthless. They don't even have the defending 1A champion ranked, which is ridiculous.
The coaches should be putting the ranking together, not a computer. They have better insight into the nuances of the season than a computer.
And not to call out your favorite team (lol) but if you look at West Branch's schedule for example, they should finish with only one loss, which likely would keep them ahead of both BND and WL (even if/when WL beats them). This will result in a possible scenario where you are getting WL, BND, or regina in the same district. In sum, you are going to see state tournament matchups happening in districts/substate.

Good for Boone to get new blood/ new money to Des Moines I suppose.
 
That would be disappointing if that's how it plays out. If there were going to make a significant change to how the playoffs are determined, they should have made that clear to the coaches ahead of time, so they could adjust.
They will see schedules adjusted for the worse in the future if they use that approach.
 
That would be disappointing if that's how it plays out. If there were going to make a significant change to how the playoffs are determined, they should have made that clear to the coaches ahead of time, so they could adjust.
They will see schedules adjusted for the worse in the future if they use that approach.
Note that the IHSSCA is using the VB rankings. From the athletic association 2022 handbook:

e) IHSSCA rankings will be used to determine the top one (1) or two (2) seeds in each substate.

f) Remaining seeding will be based on the regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 7th, 2022.

g) After using IHSSCA rankings, remaining team’s seed will be determined on their regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 7th, 2022.
3 Points for a win over a Class 3A School
2 Points for a win over a Class 2A School
1 Point for a win over a Class 1A School
 
Do we know that anyone is going to use these rankings for anything? I kind of assume they will at some point be used for something. Since sub state starts with everyone in. So, the only impact would be some weird matchups IF it's used for bracketting. Looking at it from Uncle Boone's perspective, they need some information to bracket a tournament. In the absence of anything else, I would think they have to use this and the map. I think they hold bracketting pretty close to the vest. There's not transparency on how it happens or who is involved. I assume they want to minimize undue influence.

I guess if the "rankings" aren't indicative until week 6 or 7, then why release them before then? Gets some hopes up, dashes others and confuses the rest.
 
Note that the IHSSCA is using the VB rankings. From the athletic association 2022 handbook:

e) IHSSCA rankings will be used to determine the top one (1) or two (2) seeds in each substate.

f) Remaining seeding will be based on the regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 7th, 2022.

g) After using IHSSCA rankings, remaining team’s seed will be determined on their regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 7th, 2022.
3 Points for a win over a Class 3A School
2 Points for a win over a Class 2A School
1 Point for a win over a Class 1A School
There you go, the rankings are important before substate.

So, now there is incentive to play just a challenging enough schedule, to generate wins and get yourself good competition. That's a tough balancing act to follow, I guess you can take the approach of "we'll play the best teams we can schedule and accept that we'll get a lower seed in substate and hopefully be better prepared. It does open the door for more upsets earlier in substate.
 
@Pinehawk I was looking for some other information on the State site, and found your favorite topic "additional class for Soccer" was brought to the state board for consideration in their January meeting, brought by the soccer advisory committee. Motion failed on a 4-4 vote. So, there is some support for movement that direction.
 
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There you go, the rankings are important before substate.

So, now there is incentive to play just a challenging enough schedule, to generate wins and get yourself good competition. That's a tough balancing act to follow, I guess you can take the approach of "we'll play the best teams we can schedule and accept that we'll get a lower seed in substate and hopefully be better prepared. It does open the door for more upsets earlier in substate.
I don't think it's a tough balancing act at all for 1a schools. Play weak upper class teams (even just a couple- those four extra points on your average go a long way) and 1a teams you know you can beat. Not hard math at all.

Another interesting component will be when the conferences step in and demand a conference season. RVC, for example, is filling up with conference teams. Guessing it won't happen in the next couple years but good food for thought. The way the seeding is being done, it would make sense. Then you get your seeding bonus by scheduling a handful of games out of conference against upper classes.

Since you always second guess all my posts, I'm sure you'll have something to add RC.
 
I don't think it's a tough balancing act at all for 1a schools. Play weak upper class teams (even just a couple- those four extra points on your average go a long way) and 1a teams you know you can beat. Not hard math at all.

Another interesting component will be when the conferences step in and demand a conference season. RVC, for example, is filling up with conference teams. Guessing it won't happen in the next couple years but good food for thought. The way the seeding is being done, it would make sense. Then you get your seeding bonus by scheduling a handful of games out of conference against upper classes.

Since you always second guess all my posts, I'm sure you'll have something to add RC.
Hmmm, I thought I was supporting your posts - I agreed with your original premise that Prairie is better this year and I supported the additional information you provided on the use of the rankings that I wasn't aware of. Sorry you thought discussion was "second guessing." Didn't mean anything to be critical at all of your posts. My apologies.
 
Everybody is going to try to schedule Waterloo East for an easy 3A win.
CR Prairie really poured it on them last night. 20-0.
 
Saw that and lost all respect for the Prairie coach, although he does suit a very limited number of players for varsity. He's evidently well respected among his peers. Hope there is a little fall out over this though.
Prairie soccer is not known as being very classy. My understanding is that their coach is not respected among other coaches due to their lack of class.
 
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Good to know. Odd that Larew has been trying to schedule them for years. That schedule is tough enough already. And now needs to be backed off a bit in my opinion, especially given the lack of depth at the varsity level for Regina.
Off topic, pine and rc, how long do you think Larew will coach and who do you see as his replacement? I know Miller is assistant for both girls and boys but I don't see him as a head coach. Not many other assistants anymore on the boys side other than Reeves and Tovar who have both been around a while.
 
I understand the value of playing matches you have no chance of winning if it helps you grow, as individual athletes as team mates. I don't know how the boys take those losses. In the end, they don't matter - nothing matters until substate and yes, there's seeding impact, but ultimately if you go all the way, you need to beat everyone. The only downside to playing tough 3As are the mentail state of your team and the seeding impact. Seeding only matters if it puts yo in a situation to get knocked out by someone you'd beat most days, but the circumstances of the day stack up against you. imho. I would think there could be some quality 2A programs around that could give a team both a challenge and a chance to win, but I don't know about scheduling. Seems a lot of it follows history, and I don't know how easy it is to change that (other than maybe one or two different teams a year, build a new historical matchup.

As for Rick, I hate to speculate - I stayed away from that same conversation in football. I'll just say that I hope he continues as long as he has the passion for it each year. The kids feed off his passion and he knows how to get the most out of what he has. Selfishly, I hope that adds up to at least another 3 years. I'd be thrilled if it was another 10. As for replacements, I would hope there's someone, either currently in the program or outside who has a passion, who wants to build his program, and by that I mean more than a coaching record to build a resume. Someone who takes pride in the role they play building young men and who cares about the future of the program as well.
 
Good to know. Odd that Larew has been trying to schedule them for years. That schedule is tough enough already. And now needs to be backed off a bit in my opinion, especially given the lack of depth at the varsity level for Regina.
Off topic, pine and rc, how long do you think Larew will coach and who do you see as his replacement? I know Miller is assistant for both girls and boys but I don't see him as a head coach. Not many other assistants anymore on the boys side other than Reeves and Tovar who have both been around a while.

I think he'll coach as long as he wants to, and as long as he is enjoying himself. But, I have no idea.
I think there is another good young group of players coming up who are in junior high, so he may continue to coach for awhile. He's a IHSAA Hall of Fame coach who has earned the right to coach until he's ready to retire.
It would be nice if the next coach could be internal, but I think there are a number of good coaching options in the area if it were to come to that.
 
I understand the value of playing matches you have no chance of winning if it helps you grow, as individual athletes as team mates. I don't know how the boys take those losses. In the end, they don't matter - nothing matters until substate and yes, there's seeding impact, but ultimately if you go all the way, you need to beat everyone. The only downside to playing tough 3As are the mentail state of your team and the seeding impact. Seeding only matters if it puts yo in a situation to get knocked out by someone you'd beat most days, but the circumstances of the day stack up against you. imho. I would think there could be some quality 2A programs around that could give a team both a challenge and a chance to win, but I don't know about scheduling. Seems a lot of it follows history, and I don't know how easy it is to change that (other than maybe one or two different teams a year, build a new historical matchup.

As for Rick, I hate to speculate - I stayed away from that same conversation in football. I'll just say that I hope he continues as long as he has the passion for it each year. The kids feed off his passion and he knows how to get the most out of what he has. Selfishly, I hope that adds up to at least another 3 years. I'd be thrilled if it was another 10. As for replacements, I would hope there's someone, either currently in the program or outside who has a passion, who wants to build his program, and by that I mean more than a coaching record to build a resume. Someone who takes pride in the role they play building young men and who cares about the future of the program as well.
Not to be negative towards Regina but I've heard the "younger classes are really good" for a while now. I'm aware of only two 8th graders that will even sniff varsity next year. Combine that with the fact that the leading goal scorer from this year is headed to West next year and it looks like an uphill battle at least the next two years for Regina. I hope I'm wrong, as I like seeing Regina be successful.
 
You’ve heard that because it’s been true. Regina was looking for its 4th consecutive State Championship last year.
Which would have broken their own record of a 3-peat. Hard to be much better than that.
That level of success isn’t possible to maintain indefinitely. But, I think they will continue to be a contender each season.
 
Or more appropriately, a kid named Wick. The projected talent hasn't panned out as expected. Only real talented and deep class currently is the sophomore class. One senior starter, one good junior starter, six good sophomore starters, one average freshman. I'm not being critical, I'm being honest.
 
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