1st Round Playoff Prediction

[buck_1006]

I know there are still a few big games left that will decide district seedings but here is my first guess at the 1st round match ups.

Newell-Fonda vs Harris-Lake Park
Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton vs East Mills
Marcus-Meriden-Cleghorn vs Kingsley-Pierson
Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire vs ArWeVa, Westside
Janesville vs Central City
Northwood-Kensett vs Colo-Nesco
Central, Elkader vs Meskwaki Settlement
Turkey Valley vs North Iowa
Don Bosco vs Tripoli
H-L-V, Victor vs Midland, Wyoming
Moravia vs Murray
Wayne, Corydon vs East Union, Afton
Glidden-Ralston vs Stanton
Coon Rapids-Bayard vs West Bend-Mallard
Lenox vs Twin Cedars, Bussey
Fremont-Mills vs Mormon Trail, Garden Grove

All games are non district and within the 125 mile limitation. Only NF vs HLP, Janesville vs CC and HLV vs Midland have played each other.

 

[hawkeyepower100]

Wow that CRB vs WBM would be a dandy for an opening round game. Also GTRA vs AWV could be interesting as well.

 

[Rams28]

WB-M looks to finally be firing on all cylinders , I don"t think there is a team in the whole state that's looking foreward to having to play them , even MMC who still has to travel to WB-M for their final game of the season , should be a good game.

We'll see if WB-M can knock of MMC like they did last year

 

[rockchalk2]

I bet MMC can't wait to play WBM again. Revenge time.

 

[football7015]

I'm betting WB-M can't wait to get revenge either from quarterfinals.

 

[Sadey2011]

Springville will be the 4 seed in District 4, not Central City, they would still play Janesville.

 

[sporiole]

Springville will be the 4 seed in District 4, not Central City, they would still play Janesville.

Correct, Springville will win the last 2 games. While Central City will loose both.

 

[Sadey2011]

How surprised were you sporiole that TV took down Midland? I was shocked to say the least.

I think it is gonna work out like last year;
The 1's and 2's will win their 1st round games from district 3, 4 and 5.
So in the 2nd round
NK plays Central Elkader
DB plays TV
HLV plays Janesville

And again like last year, winner of HLV/Janesville which I pick Janesville this time travels to Elkader for the Quarters.

And DB gets a team from the west traveling over this way because of the alphabetical rule or if there is some sort of upset they still would have to travel to Bosco.

Agree or disagree with this prediction everyone?

 

[sporiole]

I about fell out of my chair when I saw that. Think Central City has a chance against Midland this week? I don't.
Springville has really improved from the beginning of the year. If they get Janesville it will be closer then you think. Maybe upset!!!
The state never seeds the games the way they should. The games should be how Sadey has it. I think the state will mix things up this year.

 

[buck_1006]

Sadey, if you are correct would the rest of the 2nd round look like this? What does everyone think?

NF vs GTRA
MMC vs Exira-EHK
Janesville vs HLV
CE vs NK
DB vs TV
Morvia vs FM
GR vs WBM
Lenox vs Wayne

I have WBM as only 3 or 4 seed winning in 1st round. There are some interesting matchups there. It will be interesting to see where the state sends everyone. Im with you sporiole, I think the state mixes things up this year. Maybe NK to MMC or NF? Maybe GTRA or WBM travels east?

 

[buck_1006]

Maybe something like this.

NF vs NK
MMC vs Exira-EHK
Janesville vs WBM
CE vs HLV
DB vs TV
Moravia vs FM
GR vs GTRA
Lenox vs Wayne

 

[Sadey2011]

They could do that, but if they truly want to make everyone travel as little as possible and stick with seeding, they won't send that any teams east and west and have that many 2.5 hr to 3 hr trips. There will have to be at least 1 team traveling over here to play DB, Janesville or Elkader in the qrt's so I doubt they make that happen on Monday and Friday, that would be brutal travel if a team won and had to do it again.

Sporiole, I don't think CC has any shot against Springville at all. The Oriole's finally look to to be getting healthy again, the last time they had most of their guys was against Elkader back in week 3. They play physical. If they defend the pass better and/or get pressure, they could be an interesting matchup for Janesville in the 1st rd.

Can't wait for these matchups.

 

[Sadey2011]

A very reliable source from the west side strongly believes that these teams will be split up like last year

NF vs GTRA
MMC vs Exira-EHK

E-EHK and GR will stay south. I don't think there is a chance NF and GTRA get matched up before the Qrt's.

Gonna be interesting how they deal with MMC, GTRA and NF, the 3 clear cut far north schools that are the best.

 

[Sadey2011]

I meant to say that NF, GTRA, MMC and Exira won't have to face each other until they absolutely have too. So E-EHK, CRB and GR for sure will go south, I think. That still leaves a slight dilemma with the matchups when trying to keep MMC, NF and GTRA away form each other.

 

[JeffyScoresALLDAY]

No matter what Bosco get screwed by the state in playoffs.. They always have the toughest and hardest road to the dome. They'll prove to EVERYONE that they mean buissness and are for real! #DBPride #Dons

 

[buck_1006]

GTRA will have to play one of the 1 seeds in the 2nd round. Either NF, MMC, GR or travel east. I would think they wouldnt send them to MMC. If your source says they will wait until they have to. That would leave GTRA to GR? Who would MMC and NF play? If CRB would win I could see them going to MMC but I dont see them winning a 1st round game unless they get a lucky draw. Most likely would be MMC vs WBM/Exira and NF vs WBM/Exira. I would think they would split the district teams up. So MMC vs Exira and NF vs WBM.

 

[buck_1006]

How does DB get screwed every year? And always get the hardest road to the dome?

Last year they played Twin Cedars, Turkey Valley and then a 3 loss NF(worst record of all the remaining teams) had to travel across the state to play at their place. That was probly the eastiest schedule out of all quarterfinalists.

 

[IAWrestler1905]

buck don't listen to that joker, I highly doubt he has anything to do with DB & most likely is just a troll trying to stir the pot. I've never heard anybody from DB have any issues with their playoff draws.

I will say that Newell was not an easy draw for DB last year, despite what it looked like on paper going into that game. DB knew they were in for a heck of a game. NF pulled off the win & went on to win the title, hats off to them.

 

[Kakiyosata]

I'm definitely excited about this year's postseason! Hoping the state sends Meskwaki down south this year instead of North, maybe Moravia. That'd be a throwback to a few years ago when we had to always play teams in the south for district play. The thing that makes the playoffs interesting is wondering what the state is going to do as for match ups. As said above, I'd love to see how the state will try and mix it up compared to last year!

 

[gobillsgo]

IF MMC, WBM, and GTRA make it to the second round. I would say there would be a rematch there. I doubt the state would want three teams from the same district all moving to the quarterfinals.

 

[BoscoFan4Life]

Playing the eventual state champion in the qtrs was the easiest path to state.....That's an interesting opinion right there.

 

[Kakiyosata]

Don't get offended there, because if I recall to last year on some threads, others stated the same thing. Not to say DB wasn't any good or anything. I just think he was implying that AT the time, it was the easiest road compared to other teams. Clearly, we all know Bosco gave NF a run for their money even without Svoboda.

 

[BoscoFan4Life]

Not offended, just find it an interesting opinion, that's all. Gave em a run for their money is an understatement. Bosco had a 19 point lead midway thru the 4th qtr. They (NF) found a way to win and they seem to have that magic going this season again. I tend to believe that comes from great coaching and hard working kids who buy in and are relentless in their pursuit. An old coach of mine always said "the harder you work the luckier you get". I believe that's especially true come post season play.

I'm not offended at all. I just thought it was an interesting way of looking at things. I tend to believe come post season everyone is 0-0 each game. Records mean darn little. Who's hitting on all cylinders at the right time is what matters. That comes from focus, hard work, and creating a few breaks thru hard play.

Good luck to everyone and I hope all of the hard working young men stay healthy and get to enjoy the rest of the season. It should be an exciting one.

 

[JeffyScoresALLDAY]

NF got LUCKY last year, everyone knows Don Bosco should of won the state title in 2014, in my eyes they are the real state champions. I want to watch anotber DB vs NF and watch NF get throttled.

 

[BoscoFan4Life]

Bosco didn't finish, they fell short. NF fought and scrapped and won themselves a title. They are a great team. They may very well win another one this year. Teams with heart seem to find a way to win.

Jeffy, people know you are not a Bosco fan or part of the community. So run along please.

 

[Kakiyosata]

Not offended, just find it an interesting opinion, that's all. Gave em a run for their money is an understatement. Bosco had a 19 point lead midway thru the 4th qtr. They (NF) found a way to win and they seem to have that magic going this season again. I tend to believe that comes from great coaching and hard working kids who buy in and are relentless in their pursuit. An old coach of mine always said "the harder you work the luckier you get". I believe that's especially true come post season play.

I'm not offended at all. I just thought it was an interesting way of looking at things. I tend to believe come post season everyone is 0-0 each game. Records mean darn little. Who's hitting on all cylinders at the right time is what matters. That comes from focus, hard work, and creating a few breaks thru hard play.

Good luck to everyone and I hope all of the hard working young men stay healthy and get to enjoy the rest of the season. It should be an exciting one.

Everything you stated above, I agree with, especially about starting the postseason 0-0. Another criteria would be which team is dealing with injuries and which isn't. Some may think DB had an easy road last year, and some will think someone else will have an easy road this year. There's always someone who thinks they or another team got the short end of the stick, it's a never ending cycle year in and year out. Nonetheless, it should be a great postseason, looking forward to the revealing of all the matchups!

 

[buck_1006]

I know jeffy is just trying to stir the pot. I've seen all 6 of his comments and I think they all have to do with how DB gets screwed or gets no respect.

I was saying on paper DB had the easiest road last year. Obviously, we can look back now and see that wasn't the case. They played the state champs.

Now we can get back to the original topic and discuss possible match ups.

 

[buck_1006]

Say GTRA beats HLP this friday and WBM beats MMC in week 9. They would have a 3 way tie for the district title. How exactly does the points system come into play. Here are the District Post Season Qualifying Procedures.

Determining district champion, district runner-up, and district third place team when three or more schools tie with the fewest district losses:
1. Head to Head Competition will be used, loser(s) out.
a. If a district champion is determined by head to head competition over the remaining teams, and only two teams remain, head to head competition will determine the district runner up.
b. If all teams defeated each other: (1) The 13 point tie breaker (using plus and minus points of district games divided by the total number of games played within the district) will decide the district champion. The team with highest tiebreaker average will be the district champion and the second highest will be the district runner up, and the third highest will be the district third place team.
c. If a 2-way tie exists among the highest tiebreaker average: (1) Head to Head competition will be used, team with lowest tiebreaker will be district third place team.
d. If a 3-way tie exists among the highest tiebreaker average: (1) Alphabetical system- LAST alphabetical will be the qualifier(s) in 2015. (2) Alphabetical system- FIRST alphabetical will be the qualifier(s) in 2016.

If they all defeated each other it would go to the 13 point tie breaker.
Right now MMC is at 13, WBM is at 7.75 and GTRA is at 3.75.
If they all win this week by 13+, MMC would still be at 13, WBM would be at 8.8 and GTRA would be at 5.6.
If my math is correct would WBM need to beat MMC by 11+ to be district champs? And GTRA cannot win the district if a 3 way tie happens.

 

[Sadey2011]

Buck, at first glance your math looks right. The point system is good but sometimes with the 3way tie, it doesn't necessarily always get the best team. Now I have no idea what would be a better way to break a 3way tie so this is at least consistent and gives a chance for head to head to be considered before going to the point system.

When the state decided this winter how they are going to decide the playoff format for each class next year, I hope they keep relatively the same format for deciding the at-large teams if they go that route.

The NE IA AD meeting is today, can't wait to hear what was discussed today. I think they will do 7 districts and award the top 2 teams a playoff spot and give 2 more at-large teams a spot as well based on the same format as is already in place. That doesn't get decided today but it will be discussed.

Also, I hope they clarify how teams can be exempt from having to go up to Class A. The memo that was sent out a few weeks contradicts itself. It says there are 3 ways to stay 8man if you are over 115 but then the final line says, if you are over 115, you must move up to Class A.

NK 131, Rockford 129 are two reams that come to mind.

Also, is there gonna be a new district in SE Iowa. I think it would be awesome if there is, that would get 4 districts on each side of the state. The balance would be aesthetically pleasing to me.

 

[NF_fan_4_life]

How does DB get screwed every year? And always get the hardest road to the dome?

Last year they played Twin Cedars, Turkey Valley and then a 3 loss NF(worst record of all the remaining teams) had to travel across the state to play at their place. That was probly the eastiest schedule out of all quarterfinalists.

I agree 100% with you.

 

[B2B 14]

Jeffy is a suitable name for a childish troll. You're only embarrassing yourself now bud...

But on to football. I would love to see DB get another shot at NF this year. I believe they are amore well rounded group his year than last. No one centerpiece to their offense but it seems to be equally as explosive. With Bagby at QB you have the treat of run and pass, but not the explosiveness DB is used to (Svoboda and Hogan). That means they have to make up for it through other players and seniors like Spencer Bruess, Dalton Smith, and Joel Sweeny have definitely grown into their roles and proved to be a vital part of the team's success. Now I know NF is having a good year again and they're still the reigning champs...but I guess we will see what the post season brings!

 

[B2B 14]

Also, heres an interesting stat roundup from Quik Stats...

Having played in 2 less games this season, DB has around 100 less rushing attempts and 15 less pass attempts. Having said that they have only scored 5 less touchdowns this season. Also what came as a shock to me from the NF team is only 4 sacks on the season and 4 tackles for a loss. That seemed a bit shocking for a 7-0 returning champ! Bosco has 38 TFLs and 14 solo sacks.

From a fan's standpoint I choose DB to return to the dome...and the stats don't lie. But that's why they play each game. Can't assume anything. Good luck to both sides of the state, I'll be at the dome no matter who makes it!

 

[theIAanswer]

I think that there is a variety of teams that could make the dome. Depending on which way the state has certain teams go in the first round will be a big factor. I like the predictions that buck made in the opening comment. I think the state should keep the top 5 or 10 teams away from each other as much as possible. If that indeed is the playoff schedule I would like to see that NF vs HLP rematch. Some other good games would be WBM vs CRB, GTRA vs ARWVA. These last two weeks will be exciting to see where everyone ends up!