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Brackets Released

Really surprised Twin Cedars didn't get the top seed in 1A. They beat Pleasantville (2x), Martensdale, Van Buren, Van Meter and Ottumwa (who has wins over Waukee, Valley, Cedar Rapids Kennedy and DSM Lincoln). Newman has a solid resume, too, but I don't think it's better than Twin Cedars'.
 
Not really all that surprising when you take a more detailed look at the wins.
(I could have made a mistake or two as I did this really quickly, but should be pretty close.)

Twin Cedars has 7 wins over 2A schools, 2 over 3As and 1 over a 4A.

MC Newman has 12 wins over 2A schools, 3 over 3As and 1 over a 4A.

Knowing that the IHSAA uses a point system that gives 2 points for a 2A win, 3 points for a 3A win and 4 for a 4A win, it seems as though the seeding is right on point. Twin Cedars just doesn't have enough wins over larger schools to increase their point average to overtake Newman.

No matter who is the #1 or #2, it would be pretty surprising if these two don't match up in the 1A Championship game on Saturday.
 
I agree bearcat. I ran the numbers last week and I think Newman was around 1.51 and TC was 1.41 points per win.
 
So, who do you see winning in the respective classes?

1A[/B]
([/B]1) Mason City, Newman Catholic
(8) B-G-M, Brooklyn

(4) Don Bosco, Gilbertville
(5) Martensdale-St. Mary's

(2) Twin Cedars, Bussey
(7) Underwood

(3) LeMars, Gehlen Catholic
(6) Lone Tree

2A
(1) North Polk, Alleman
(8) Maple Valley-Anthon-Oto

(4) South Winneshiek, Calmar
(5) Roland-Story, Story City

(2) Dyersville Beckman Catholic
(7) Hinton

(3) Van Meter
(6) Iowa City Regina

3A
(1) Waverly-Shell Rock
(8) Solon

(4) Harlan
(5) Davenport Assumption

(2) Sergeant Bluff-Luton
(7) Algona

(3) Fairfield
(6) Dallas Center-Grimes

4A
(1) Waukee
(8) Johnston

(4) Iowa City West
(5) West Des Moines Dowling

(2) Dubuque Hempstead
(7) West Des Moines Valley

(3) Cedar Rapids Kennedy
(6) Southeast Polk

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 1A, I'll go Mason City Newman over Twin Cedars.
In 2A, I'll go Dyersville Beckman over North Polk.
In 3A, I'll go Waverly-Shell Rock over Sergeant Bluff-Luton.
In 4A, I'll go Iowa City West over Cedar Rapids Kennedy (homer pick).
 
1A looks really interesting, several very good records with teams that play a lot of ball in classes other than their own.
Would love to see a Newman, Twin Cedar rematch , but both teams have a lot of wood to chop to make that happen.
I knew Newman & Twin cedar play a lot of bigger schools, but Gehlen must as well to get the 3 seed.
 
In 4A I would pick Waukee to win it all. They have excellent starting pitching, very good defense and they can score. Of the six teams in 4A that I've personally seen I would rate them the best (haven't seen Hempstead or Kennedy). Hempstead has a great record but it looks like their schedule was not that tough. The CIML teams have been beating up on each other all season so their records aren't as gaudy, but I think they generally play better competition day-in and day-out than their eastern Iowa counterparts.
 
Other than those blips in 2009 and 2010, the state titles has gone to a CIML team every year since 1998. And that goes back to 1995 if you count Ottumwa, who is now but wasn't at the time. It helps they're the biggest conference and they get spread out over more districts, but they still deliver.

Strange, this year, there are no MRC or MAC schools in the final eight.
 
The MRC has 5 schools out of 48... it's strange when they ARE in there.
ohwell.r191677.gif
I think that fact gets lost in the shuffle with watered down football playoffs and a basketball substate that hasn't changed in 20 years, which guarantees an MRC school plays in DM unless Lewis Central wins.


Re: 1A seeding. Newman played above their class far and away more often than the others. Gehlen has quite a few 2A wins to their credit, but they aren't mixing it up with 3A and 4A schools. Newman did that quite a few times.

Twin Cedars seems to have played a similar schedule to Gehlen in terms of classes played.
 
Guess I forgot they do the point system for teams who play up. Based on the actual quality of those wins, though, I think Twin Cedars has a more impressive resume. A lot of Newman's 2A wins came against lousy 2A teams. So Twin Cedars shouldn't have gotten the top seed based on how the association determines it, but I definitely believe they're the best team in the field.
 
As it should be, A Newman-TC matchup will likely be settled on the field, but in terms of what's on paper, Newman seems to have the edge:

For Newman


According to quikstats: 24/38 games against bigger class schools
20-4 against 2A,3A,4A schools that include wins against two state qualifiers, the defending 3A state champ, and a 4-1 record against teams that finished in the coaches final top 10 for their class.
The average record for their bigger class opponents was 20-14.
The average "class" of all opponents: 1.86
Their seeding score: 1.74For TC


According to quikstats: 10/34 games against bigger class schools
Van Meter is the only victory against a ranked opponent that qualified for state in a larger class.
They were a perfect 10-0 against the larger classed teams whose average record was 16-17. Keep in mind over a 1/3 of the wins in the win average was contributed by just two schools; Van Meter and Ottumwa (56/164)
The average "class" of all opponents: 1.42
Their seeding score: 1.42I have no horse in this race. There is no doubt these are two quality clubs. If they do meet up in the finals, it should be a great championship game..





This post was edited on 7/27 10:16 PM by gg2224
 
Twin Cedars will have their work cut out for them, which is expected. This is the final four but the Catholics look tough in 1a!
 
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